hosj III Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Gun to the head, I'd say 2 inches for DC, 4 inches for the NW suburbs, 6 inches for westminster and .1" for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 7" here on 12/5/09 I'll take a repeat in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 warmer a bit. def not a blizzard imby. warmer and I believe its now the third run in a row where it came a bit west, not a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 doesn't happen often, when was the last 1"+ at DCA during November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 doesn't happen often, when was the last 1"+ at DCA during November? Nov 1989... DC is way overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Feb. 12-13, 2014... Didn't the EURO start east, correct too far west, then end up somewhere in the middle? I know it's a different situation, but this reminded me of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Feb. 12-13, 2014... Didn't the EURO start east, correct too far west, then end up somewhere in the middle? I know it's a different situation, but this reminded me of that. It's just sort of anecdotal, but it doesn't seem like solutions trend west to a point and then slowly leak back eastward to the final solution. But could just be a memory selection effect. The Euro is by far the west-most solution right now, but it's the Euro... At this point, I'd still put a little more faith in the Euro ensembles. Hopefully they have a more GFS-like track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 doesn't happen often, when was the last 1"+ at DCA during November? 1989 at DCA, but a lot of us got ~1" on 11/11/95, 11/29/95 and 11/14/96....otherwise cartoppers mostly...I got 0.3" on 11/23/05...that was my last November accumulating snow, unless you count the 0.25" on 10/29/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm not too worried the euro is that far west. Probably fits its bias given other models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 7" here on 12/5/09 That's the first storm that came to mind when this thing starting looking possible yesterday. I got 7" also. This system on the Euro looks wetter than that one yet also looks warmer. Most of 12/5/09 daytime temps were 31/32 and then fell into the 27-29 range in the early evening and continued to snow for several hours. This storm looks more 32-34 even for us for at least the first half because as depicted on the Euro we start out early Wed. morning around 37/38, however I find that no matter what the set up is if it snows hard enough the temp always settles into that 31/32 range for our area as long as your over 700 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm not too worried the euro is that far west. Probably fits its bias given other models right now. Yeah there is quite a spread still. Ensembles will be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That's the first storm that came to mind when this thing starting looking possible yesterday. I got 7" also. This system on the Euro looks wetter than that one yet also looks warmer. Most of 12/5/09 daytime temps were 31/32 and then fell into the 27-29 range in the early evening and continued to snow for several hours. This storm looks more 32-34 even for us for at least the first half because as depicted on the Euro we start out early Wed. morning around 37/38, however I find that no matter what the set up is if it snows hard enough the temp always settles into that 31/32 range for our area as long as your over 700 feet. Especially at times with the lower sun angles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Can't remember 12/5/09... can someone give me a refresher?Very elevation dependent system. I got about 6" here in Manchester. Places nw of the fall line saw at least some snow. Similar setup but that storm was nowhere near as juicy as this one. The max precip with that was only about .6 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Very elevation dependent system. I got about 6" here in Manchester. Places nw of the fall line saw at least some snow. Similar setup but that storm was nowhere near as juicy as this one. The max precip with that was only about .6 qpf. I thought you were in PA still per sig? Or did you move back to Manchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I thought you were in PA still per sig? Or did you move back to Manchester?moved back a few months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 15z SREF looks pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 15z SREF looks pretty sweet yeah...looks like around 0.65" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Temps for DCA from 12z Euro (Wednesday 12z/18z/Thursday 00z): 1000: 2/1/1 950: 1/-1/-1 925: 1/-1/-2 900: 0/-1/-2 850: -2/-1/-1 Rain/white rain at the onset to snow with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z EURO ensembles hopefully will be a few ticks east of the OP... I think we are okay for now as long as the EURO doesn't move more west... I think 12z UKIE was basically best of both worlds for us with what I think is an 850 low in E SC at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Oh. Does any model support this for the eastern shore? Certainly not the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Oh. Early due to the holiday travel....and subject to change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 EURO ens mean trended NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I know 1000-500 hPa thicknesses have fallen out of favor as a snow/rain metric but here are the values from the Euro for BWI 12Z W 547 0.05" 18Z W 548 0.63" 00Z T 549 0.54" 06Z T 534 0.16" Obviously, they don't drop between 12 and 18 Z. Perhaps 1000-850 drop is balanced by 850-700 increase. The skew T for 39N/76W 18Z W shows T's within a degree of zero from src to 900 hPa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 EURO ens mean trended NW IF we could hol it there, I'd be happy. Looks pretty wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Does any model support this for the eastern shore? Certainly not the 12z euro. GFS. And even the Euro would have SOME snow towards the end. Who knows what their thinking is..maybe they dont buy the west jog of the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 EURO ens mean trended NW As far west as the EURO op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 As far west as the EURO op? No, it is not, I'd be happy with its track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 As far west as the EURO op? That would be my question as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 No, it is not, I'd be happy with its track. Thanks Wes. Sorry for the weenie question, but how wet? Euro OP was 1.3" I believe Zwyts said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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