dtk Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 without being able to get into the physics of why it seems to me just observing over the years that often times during the critical development period of a coastal storm the gfs will jump the slp off in the wrong direction and that throws everything after out of whack. On several occasions it seems it may have been feedback related where the gfs shifted towards an overdone region of convection. Again I don't have the ability to say for sure if that's the culprit it's just an observation I've had and sometimes those can be biased or misleading. Fair enough.....but in that case, the issue is not the feedback (or the scheme itself), but the location of the most intense convection. This could be caused by poor specification of SST or other issues in the model, and not necessarily the convective scheme itself. That's not to say that the current convective scheme doesn't need some work/improvement, because it certainly does. The generation (or enhancement) of (potential) vorticity through diabatic processes is a real thing. There is a good study by Brennan and Lackmann on the Jan 25, 2000 storm demonstrating what happens if a model screws up intense convection and generation of diabatic PV early in the forecast of that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The BIG difference between the OLD and NEW GFS is the NEW has a LP in the lakes and the OLD does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well, my expectation is that the new system *should* be better for Miller A systems where diabatic, nonlinear effects are critical. THe new system has an increase in spatial resolution, improved (higher resolution) SST product used, and other physics-related changes....all of which should improve the predictions of this type of development. However, the new package doesn't include a significant overhaul in the convective parameterization and I worry that the new Semi-Lagrangian dynamic core damps things a bit too much. So perhaps my expectations are too high.... Thanks for the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FWIW GFS 12Z BWI.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Individual GFS members def came NW, lots of good hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12/5/09 is the top analog http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&rundt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Individual GFS members def came NW, lots of good hits. Very good agreement. The one big whiff east has a fairly strong LP n of the lakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Very good agreement. The one big whiff east has a fairly strong LP n of the lakes... OP is still decidedly in the western portion of the grouping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12/5/09 is the top analog http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&rundt= Can't remember 12/5/09... can someone give me a refresher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12/5/09 is the top analog http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&rundt= Yeah that's a pretty close setup. Suggest a decent 3-6 in the NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Can't remember 12/5/09... can someone give me a refresher?I received about an inch around BWI but areas in the NW burbs received a 4-6" snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 would be nice.. that storm in dec 2009 was a big snow machine for all of usYou're thinking of the 12/19 snowstorm my man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I received about an inch around BWI but areas in the NW burbs received a 4-6" snowfall yeah id like to see it match an analog for the dec 19 2009 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 OP is still decidedly in the western portion of the grouping Makes sense I think because of resolution? Either way, the grouping looks darn good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You're thinking of the 12/19 snowstorm my man. yeah , sry about that I deleted it sry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12/5 500MB looks somewhat similar for the shortwave impacting the storm, but looks way dif out west. Here is 12/5/2009 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/05-Dec-09.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You're thinking of the 12/19 snowstorm my man. yeah , sry about that I deleted it sry I was too, the year explains it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You can tell why it chooses 12/5 as the top analog as it similarly has the lobe over the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yup, I'd take 12/5/09 up here this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Can't remember 12/5/09... can someone give me a refresher? 4-5" a little outside the western Beltway at a few hundred feet elevation. Snowed pretty much all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Can't remember 12/5/09... can someone give me a refresher? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/events/?event=20091205 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Can't remember 12/5/09... can someone give me a refresher? 1-2" for me and you...5-8" far north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 EURO out to 51 hours, looks fairly similar thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 1-2" for me and you...5-8" far north and west Day before thanksgiving, I'd be happy with 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12/5/09 was a horrible storm in the frederick valley. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Day before thanksgiving, I'd be happy with 1-2 inches. same..would be nice to get on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 EURO might come a tad west here, but I'll let the pros analyze it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 There is better phasing happening between the waves, this thing is going to bomb out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 euro looks pretty good - so far....around 0.30" through 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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