Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hmm then I guess weatherbell must have 2 feet somewhere. Atari GFS is a crushing. Perfect vort passage for the coastal and then another excellent vort passage that keeps in -SHSN all Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Conveniently cold temps aloft, but still borderline. USA_TMP_975mb_078.gif Dynamic cooling FTW, love the bubble of sub freezing temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Raw temps 36-39 at 7am. Pretty uniform 34 at 1pm. 32-33 at 7pm. Maybe some rain to start verbatim but definitely snow shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ok, Atari is old gfs and Xbox is new parallel gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ok, Atari is old gfs and Xbox is new parallel gfs? I'm wondering the same thing, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Weeniebell maps aren't crazy. 6-7 for the cities and close burbs. Less as you get to the western burb counties. More on eastern shore but temps are worse over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FWIW, Raleigh snow maps are 6-9" I-95 corridor. Granted prob too high, but still decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ok, Atari is old gfs and Xbox is new parallel gfs?Atari implies old less powerful computing game system. Xbox is the latest and "greatest" system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ok, Atari is old gfs and Xbox is new parallel gfs? I'm wondering the same thing, lol Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ok, Atari is old gfs and Xbox is new parallel gfs? Yes, just joking around because of the low res/high res differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 2m freezing line goes way up to the Canadian border by 18Z...how is that not rain? well...where the line is doesn't really matter - it can still be 33 here, but you make a good point about lack of cold air....according to GFS, at DCA it is 38 when precip starts, and still 35, 6 hours later...finally falls to 33-34 for last 4-5 hours of storm....and we know the GFS is probably running cold....of course we don't know where the track might end up, but for the coastal plain, rain/white rain/non accumulating snow is likely for at least a portion of the event....also could be a warm nose between 875-925 at some point...the models have been hinting at it, though not verbatim.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FWIW, Raleigh snow maps are 6-9" I-95 corridor. Granted prob too high, but still decent 1" of QPF runs 95. Given some initial RASN, melting, etc.., that's probably reasonable if the GFS verified perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I feel like this run is somewhat of a step backwards being closer to those dreaded isotherms. Maybe the para/xbox gfs can save us with the caa on the nw side of the Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 According to AccuWx Pro the temp profile for DCA from the 12z GFS looks like this: 925 and 850: Wed 6z +3, +1 Wed 12z 0, -2 Wed 18z -1, -2 Thu 0z 0, -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The paralell continues to run the system out to sea. Im not getting good vibes about the model changes.To make matters worse soon we won't even have the old gfs to compare it to. So if it is indeed wrong and this were January it would actually be making the forecast confidence worse right now. Some "upgrade". Of course if it's right then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 upper 20's to around 30 Friday on the GFS my kind of holiday weather post snow of any sort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 According to AccuWx Pro the temp profile for DCA from the 12z GFS looks like this: 925 and 850: Wed 6z +3, +1 Wed 12z 0, -2 Wed 18z -1, -2 Thu 0z 0, -3 That's impressive for time of year and time of day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 upper 20's to around 30 Friday on the GFS my kind of holiday weather post snow of any sort yep that would be ideal for me in sparrows point, md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 WOWOW Stormvista snow map buries you guys, there's a sliver of 12" in E MD, and stormvista is usually conservative I'm looking on instantweather and am not seeing anything close to those totals [shrug] I saw that map, stormvista shows more snowfall. Just an algorithm issue. I'd lean on the low side, just telling you what stormvista shows yes...Highzenberg is exaggerating as usual...SV maps paint 2-5" for much of DC Metro...more as you get further north and east, but again...SNOW MAPS ARE USELESS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 About to go full tilt. I'm angry. But still I hope for a hit. I'm gonna miss this party ladies and gents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Starting to feel like this might actually happen now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 According to AccuWx Pro the temp profile for DCA from the 12z GFS looks like this: 925 and 850: Wed 6z +3, +1 Wed 12z 0, -2 Wed 18z -1, -2 Thu 0z 0, -3 we're below on both the whole time, but still closer than we would like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Question...Can we ban snowmaps or any discussion of snowmaps?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 yes...Highzenberg is exaggerating as usual...SV maps paint 2-5" for much of DC Metro...more as you get further north and east, but again...SNOW MAPS ARE USELESS Weird, I wish I could post it, but that is not what mine shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 About to go full tilt. I'm angry. But still I hope for a hit. I'm gonna miss this party ladies and gents these kind of storms come around here all the time Randy....just go and enjoy yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Starting to feel like this might actually happen now. definitely looks good for you, 60 miles north of DC with some nice elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Question...Can we ban snowmaps or any discussion of snowmaps?... They are not useless. They can do well pinpointing where jackpot zones line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12 GGEM still has a suppressed track but does get light precip into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 They are not useless. They can do well pinpointing where ackpot zones line up. They're total amateur hour...They're all over the place, and they often misrepresent what the model is actually showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12 GGEM still has a suppressed track but does get light precip into the area. It's actually a bit worse than last night...so it held serve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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