winter_warlock Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z NAM is out-to-sea, but the 9z SREF is extremely encouraging with over 0.5" liquid for most of the area through 00z Thursday. NAM at 78-84 hours is as useless as my exwife at a monogamy seminar. lol I don't put a lot of stock in the NAM past 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 "New and improved" American models are struggling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 "New and improved" American models are struggling.. they always doo compared to the foreign models, , I don't see where the GFS parallel is any better IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Friendly reminder: The event hasn't happened yet. Bash the models when there's verification That said, I'm mostly on board with the not-out-to-sea solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Friendly reminder: The event hasn't happened yet. Bash the models when there's verification That said, I'm mostly on board with the not-out-to-sea solutions. Lol- no kidding. Definitively saying a solution is out to lunch at 3-4 day leads is silly talk. That said, I've watched a bazillion model runs over the years and the euro kills miller A's more often than not. I'll go with a blend of 99% euro/ens and 1% everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lol- no kidding. Definitively saying a solution is out to lunch at 3-4 day leads is silly talk. That said, I've watched a bazillion model runs over the years and the euro kills miller A's more often than not. I'll go with a blend of 99% euro/ens and 1% everything else. ill go with a middle of the road track between GFS and euro.... but still 4 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FWIW HPC just updated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm going with the euro but not the wx bell snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS looks pretty sweet so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hr. 66 is starting to look juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Is that what is called a 50/50 low up in Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 WOWOW Stormvista snow map buries you guys, there's a sliver of 12" in E MD, and stormvista is usually conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I even see a dot of purple (10-12") in E VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Flush hit. Onto the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Once again it looks like the P-GFS will be EAST, it's either going to look amazing or it might make me not trust it all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Highzrnburg, when you say E Md, what do you mean? Balt and the beltway is generally considered central Maryland. Are you taking about up toward Cecil county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Flush hit. Onto the euro The paralell continues to run the system out to sea. Im not getting good vibes about the model changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I like how the Euro and now GFS gets the precip going before or just at sunrise so there won't be any daytime heating to overcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The paralell continues to run the system out to sea. Im not getting good vibes about the model changes. this may become the understatement of the season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm looking on instantweather and am not seeing anything close to those totals [shrug] WOWOW Stormvista snow map buries you guys, there's a sliver of 12" in E MD, and stormvista is usually conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I like how the Euro and now GFS gets the precip going before or just at sunrise so there won't be any daytime heating to overcome 2m freezing line goes way up to the Canadian border by 18Z...how is that not rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The paralell continues to run the system out to sea. Im not getting good vibes about the model changes. It did come west slightly, but still mostly misses the whole idea...curious when it catches on (unless it is right of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The paralell continues to run the system out to sea. Im not getting good vibes about the model changes. It's odd. With previous light events and cutters it looked very euro'ish through 4 days. It's so far out on an island right now that it almost makes no sense for an "upgraded model". Imo-theres close to a zero percent chance that it has this right. When the old gfs and euro look this close @ d3 wirh a coastal you can almost hit the teller and make a deposit. Old gfs looks pretty sweet with h5 and 850 track. It's probably light on qpf on the nw side considering track/strength etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 2m freezing line goes way up to the Canadian border by 18Z...how is that not rain? on the NCEP maps, it goes in increments of 10C so 33 looks the same as 48F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 yet, wundermap has rain to snow around 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm looking on instantweather and am not seeing anything close to those totals [shrug] I saw that map, stormvista shows more snowfall. Just an algorithm issue. I'd lean on the low side, just telling you what stormvista shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Soundings will be interesting for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS look warmer than 06z for I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Atari GFS is a crushing. Perfect vort passage for the coastal and then another excellent vort passage that keeps in -SHSN all Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Conveniently cold temps aloft, but still borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I saw that map, stormvista shows more snowfall. Just an algorithm issue. I'd lean on the low side, just telling you what stormvista shows Hmm then I guess weatherbell must have 2 feet somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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