Ger Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Is there any way the surface could verify colder than projected atm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Local outlets will leave this one in the air til the end. Think about clinical. Though the Euro and gfs to some extent show a big event, it classifies as highly anomalous WRT the historical perspectives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Is there any way the surface could verify colder than projected atm? Yes, but not substantially colder. The airmass is just not that cold. I think we're talking about a couple degrees either side of 32F if we're getting precip on Wednesday. If the Xbox GFS solution verifies, we'd probably have highs in the upper 30s/low 40s on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Seems more likely to be a grass accumulator than road stickage, at this point. But, even wet roads with heavy periods of non-sticking snow can impact flow and congestion on 95. perfect scenario......T'giving will have snow on the grass while naso much on the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lots of "ifs", but if the precip falls at the forecast rate with temps 32-33F at this time of year, it will accumulate on the roads as well.Imho- it will stick to roads no problem even at 35* IF rates verify. Stick as in a slushy mess and terrible travel conditions.Last night's euro had .8 in 6 hours. Pretty extreme solution but the storm progression on guidance would support an extended period of heavy rates. I could envision the front overunning not sticking but as the low passes there will be ample juice and good dynamics. Where the heaviest falls is up in the air but as depicted it would be a high impact event and not some pretty mulch and grass coverer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks more reasonable. that's it, I'm signing up for Accuwx Pro.....they have Euro skewts for the major cities at 6-hour intervals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Does anyone have the temps during the Veterans Day storm in the 1980's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 For some climo perspective, here's a graph Ian/ CWG published in the Post a while back: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 that's it, I'm signing up for Accuwx Pro.....they have Euro skewts for the major cities at 6-hour intervals Does this account for any meltage after the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Does anyone have the temps during the Veterans Day storm in the 1980's? http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/1987/11/11/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/1987/11/11/DailyHistory.html Love it. 34 at 12am, 35 at 11pm, and blitzed with snow at 30 degrees midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 6z gfs is nearly identical to the 12z euro with surface temps along and near 95. 36-37 at 7am - 33-34 at 1pm - 32-33 at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 6z gfs is nearly identical to the 12z euro with surface temps along and near 95. 36-37 at 7am - 33-34 at 1pm - 32-33 at 7pm. Without a march sun angle 33 and heavy snow could definitely cause some major issues. Shame we can't save this track for January and a colder air mass though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 OK, just re-upped with Accuwx and checked the Euro skewts for mby at 84, 90, & 96 hours, and the verdict is...... all snow with surface 32-33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 OK, just re-upped with Accuwx and checked the Euro skewts for mby at 84, 90, & 96 hours, and the verdict is...... all snow with surface 32-33 What are the 925s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What are the 925s? because it's a graph, it's hard to tell exactly but would guess between -2C and -2.5C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/1987/11/11/DailyHistory.html Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 OK, just re-upped with Accuwx and checked the Euro skewts for mby at 84, 90, & 96 hours, and the verdict is...... all snow with surface 32-33 Do you mind doing Westminster? Site is w54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Do you mind doing Westminster? Site is w54Actually for AW pro I believe they use KDMW for Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 because it's a graph, it's hard to tell exactly but would guess between -2C and -2.5C Isn't there metar text output on accuwx? If 925s verify then the odds of the surface throwing a big wrench definitely decrease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Do you mind doing Westminster? Site is w54 that's needed the qpf output, not the skewts but it's at 32-33 and 1.28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Isn't there metar text output on accuwx? If 925s verify then the odds of the surface throwing a big wrench definitely decrease. they do, but for the airports it appears the text output differs from the skewts....I think they have limited skewts and then put you in the "range" the text output for BWI, and I'm a hair better than them usually by .5 to 1F, is 1.1C to 1.4C during precip EDIT: they don't give 925 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thanks,,Mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 gotta go now bbl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What are the 925s? For IAD the 925's are this on the 0z Euro...IAD looks all snow to me. Wed 6z (+2) 12z (-1) 18z (-2) 0z (-2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think temps at DCA will paint a fuller picture. What are the 925s there? Wed for DCA Looks like DCA is a rain/snow mix per Euro to start then goes to all snow. 6z (+3) 12z (0) 18z (-1) 0z (-2) Wed for BWI 6z (+1) 12z (-1) 18z (-1) 0z (-2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thanks Pack. If you don't mind, please pop in after the 12z run. 925 is a very important level with the marginal surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thanks Pack. If you don't mind, please pop in after the 12z run. 925 is a very important level with the marginal surface. No problem, for the Euro the only place I have access to them is on AccPro and it takes a while to update after it runs. But I will pop in when they update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z NAM is out-to-sea, but the 9z SREF is extremely encouraging with over 0.5" liquid for most of the area through 00z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.