Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just throwing in my 2 cents to the Euro snowmap debate.. I do have access to Euro cross sections via Accupro and I would be fairly confident in saying they support all snow from a Winchester to DCA line, and probably most of the way to Annapolis. Did two cross sections at 90 hours, one from Winchester to DCA and another from Winchester to Annapolis. The first one to DCA, the entire column was cold enough and the 0C line was literally right near the surface (near 1000mb).. probably not a 10:1 snow but still looked like all snow. Only when it was getting toward the bay in Annapolis did the 0C line creep up towards the 950mb level and maybe suggest a sleet/rain mixed in type deal. Really wish I could play show and tell with the cross section on here but I'm sure that wouldn't be allowed. At any rate, still lots of time to hash this thing out track wise much less get into the difficult details of precip type. Thanks for the info... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is east of OP but very much supports it....hard to tell from my maps, but maybe 0.85" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 6z GFS is near perfect given what we are dealing with...0.85" of QPF for DC...33-34 at the surface most of the storm.....parallel hasn't caught on yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 6z GFS is perfect...0.85" of QPF for DC...32-33 at the surface most of the storm.....parallel hasn't caught on yet.... Concur, I still think the precip maps will play catch up as you can see on the 5h setup this thing is setting up to be a classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro has been locked in. Now the uk and gfs are jumping on board. I guess I have to start taking this seriously. The upgraded gfs is either going to prove its worth this week or prove it's just more of the same crap with coastal storms. Wonder if this upgrade did anything to try to solve the issue gfs has with feedback in these type systems. Nothing like watching the overnight runs while up with a 3 week old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro has been locked in. Now the uk and gfs are jumping on board. I guess I have to start taking this seriously. The upgraded gfs is either going to prove its worth this week or prove it's just more of the same crap with coastal storms. Wonder if this upgrade did anything to try to solve the issue gfs has with feedback in these type systems. Nothing like watching the overnight runs while up with a 3 week old. At least you have something to track during those midnight feedings. Winter of 12/13 was lame so I had nothing to watch during the newborn stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 6z GFS is near perfect given what we are dealing with...0.85" of QPF for DC...33-34 at the surface most of the storm.....parallel hasn't caught on yet.... 6z GFS looks a lot like the Euro at 500mb, at least until about 72 hours. GEFS are still east, but are slowly coming west on each cycle it seems. With the Euro locked in and the Euro Ens onboard, that's pretty damn good consensus for 72-96 hours out. Xbox GFS is either going to score an amazing coup on the first Miller A or be completely embarrassed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Folks...with this threat looking more and more likely, we're going to keep this thread banter-free. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What is the xbox gfs reference about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What is the xbox gfs reference about? Xbox GFS aka the 13km grid GFS aka the parallel GFS. It's been consistently OTS on this storm for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Xbox GFS aka the 13km grid GFS aka the parallel GFS. It's been consistently OTS on this storm for days. After initially showing a snowy solution for a run or 2 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 6z GFS sounding for the north side of 495 at 18z on Wednesday. At freezing (maybe 33F?) at the surface, but otherwise below freezing. Not great for high ratios, but it's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 6z GFS sounding for the north side of 495 at 18z on Wednesday. At freezing (maybe 33F?) at the surface, but otherwise below freezing. Not great for high ratios, but it's snow. GFS_3_2014112306_F84_39.0000N_77.0000W.png Honestly a pretty good sounding if you ask me USAF. The 6z was reasonable yet solid for people hoping for snow. Not a discernible warm nose. Our GL low is possibly helping keep this in just in the right spot rather than coming too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Honestly a pretty good sounding if you ask me USAF. The 6z was reasonable yet solid for people hoping for snow. Not a discernible warm nose. Our GL low is possibly helping keep this in just in the right spot rather than coming too far west. Oh, it's plenty fine for snow. Just saying it's not going to be powdery fluff full of dendrites. Just not cold enough aloft for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Oh, it's plenty fine for snow. Just saying it's not going to be powdery fluff full of dendrites. Just not cold enough aloft for that. I'll take my usual Baltimore needles, globs, and pellets and like it, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Oh, it's plenty fine for snow. Just saying it's not going to be powdery fluff full of dendrites. Just not cold enough aloft for that.Definitely, but we won't be as low as 5-1. From the looks of of it, I'd say 8-1 with some potentially 10-1 in western regions on the tail end. Like you said a solid column with good rates. I'd say it could be coming down like 2/25/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'll take my usual Baltimore needles, globs, and pellets and like it, thanks. Yeah, that's probably more like it. Maybe fluffier on the tail end. Definitely, but we won't be as low as 5-1. From the looks of of it, I'd say 8-1 with some potentially 10-1 in western regions on the tail end. Like you said a solid column with good rates. I'd say it could be coming down like 2/25/07. Yeah, taken verbatim, it certainly wouldn't be that low. 5:1 is pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's starting to look like a lock even at 4 day leads. Thurs 0z euro ens low position plot is about as tight as you'll see at that lead. As Matt already said, euro ens mean precip @ DCA looks like .80-.85. No guidance is showing big trouble with the column other than the surface. Now the GFS op is on board @ d4 as well. 12z is probably time to start discussing start/end times, amounts, and temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Storm is still 3 days away. Lots can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Catching up from overnight. I hate the wxbell maps, but I have to say that wunderground came out exactly the same if you add up the increments, about 14". Good 850 track, wind direction is good enough (less easterly component the better). On both the euro and the current GFS, what I don't like is that the freezing DP line is way up north and west of 95. And of course it would be nice to have the para GFS on board just for consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Storm is still 3 days away. Lots can change Sure can, but regardless of type, this thing looks to make travel a nightmare on the 95 corridor. I know many of you have traveled on that day and know just how bad it is even in good weather. Really glad to be staying home and hope for safe travels for all. I would think the 6z gfs really helped bump the confidence level. But as you said, lots can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If more of a Euro-ish solution verifies, you really want to be inland and at elevation to feel confident in seeing accumulating sloppy wet snow, with best chances late Wed into Wed night, For the cities and east I would think any snow stickage would be at night as the lower levels cool, although Euro surface temps never get very cold. Also there is a screaming SW jet on the Euro that would keep the mid levels warmish for eastern sections- that needs to be watched. Gonna need rates even at night esp east of the fall line. GFS solution looks colder and does bring surface temps to freezing towards the end of the event, but it shuts off the precip quicker. Still lots to work out, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 WJLA is calling for cold rain but their graphic indicates snow. Talk about straddling the fence.Althought I guess it's hard to pull the trigger on this event three days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not that this is a leading factor, but climo is still tragic at this time of year for anything other than a couple of inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 WJLA is calling for cold rain but their graphic indicates snow. Talk about straddling the fence.Althought I guess it's hard to pull the trigger on this event three days out. Yeah you are going to see the generic rain/snow mix wording until details can be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 SREF just jumped on board fwiw. Mean precip is around 0.50". 850s between 0 and -4. sfc I'm assuming is Mid to Upper 30s. Plumes give a mean around 4 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 WJLA is calling for cold rain but their graphic indicates snow. Talk about straddling the fence.Althought I guess it's hard to pull the trigger on this event three days out. Climate is why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Sure can, but regardless of type, this thing looks to make travel a nightmare on the 95 corridor. I know many of you have traveled on that day and know just how bad it is even in good weather. Really glad to be staying home and hope for safe travels for all. I would think the 6z gfs really helped bump the confidence level. But as you said, lots can change. Seems more likely to be a grass accumulator than road stickage, at this point. But, even wet roads with heavy periods of non-sticking snow can impact flow and congestion on 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not that this is a leading factor, but climo is still tragic at this time of year for anything other than a couple of inches of snow. I see it as a big factor, esp given we dont have a very cold air mass to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Seems more likely to be a grass accumulator than road stickage, at this point. But, even wet roads with heavy periods of non-sticking snow can impact flow and congestion on 95. Lots of "ifs", but if the precip falls at the forecast rate with temps 32-33F at this time of year, it will accumulate on the roads as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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