Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's a horrible run for SNE...driving rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 it is probably pretty warm for us...hard to say...like most of us, I don't have access to soundings for the euro.... Well since the 850s are east of us... we can hope that the rest of the column above is cold... and hope rates can overcome 34/35 ETA: Or Bob can give us the good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Enjoying Wxbells crack pot snow map. 14" for DC. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Daytime snow in november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looking over the Euro on Weather Bell.. The snowfall map with 10:1, which is too high, shows a widespread 6 to 12 inches from DC, PHL, NYC and even up to Boston, but cut that those amounts down to half. Probably more like 3 to 6 inches, but way too early for amounts here. Higher elevation does well with the event. No doubt, this storm will be a major impact for the holiday travel. Good luck with air travel.. Well, we have several more days to watch this coastal.. Very interesting for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Humorous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ryan mahue map is embarrassing but great for page hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Daytime snow in november. it could be a lakes cutter soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Humorous. Is that 17.7 max in Mass or D.C.? vn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 1.4 qpf for everyone within 30 miles of 95. 5:1 is over 6". I don't see much rain on the run till you get close to the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ryan mahue map is embarrassing but great for page hits he must know that....SV maps give us 0.0" snow...it is probably somewhere in between...fortunately most of us are savvy enough to toss snowfall maps into the garbage where they belong....I've never used one and I never will.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The euro is too far west most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 he must know that....SV maps give us 0.0" snow...it is probably somewhere in between...fortunately most of us are savvy enough to toss snowfall maps into the garbage where they belong....I've never used one and I never will.... It's been nothing but pink over dc in the past 2 years of his maps. He has made us into Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 A Euro/GFS blend (weighted towards the Euro) looks good to me. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 .8 from 12-18z and .6 from 18-0z for dca. Right or wrong, that'a sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I just looked at instantweather 850mb temps at 96hrs. Yeah we are below 0c but -5C is way back over lake Eerie and -10C is nowhere near us. Usually not a good sign for surface temps. Looks like the Euro just dynamically cools everyone to 33F. Also we rarely get .8 in a 6 hr period all snow unless it's 2/6/2010 Just waiting to see how many times the SV snow maps gets shared by morons on Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 .8 from 12-18z and .6 from 18-0z for dca. Right or wrong, that'a sick it is...and probably wrong....I wonder when the other models catch on....Atari is sort of there already.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I just looked at instantweather 850mb temps at 96hrs. Yeah we are below 0c but -5C is way back over lake Eerie and -10C is nowhere near us. Usually not a good sign for surface temps. Looks like the Euro just dynamically cools everyone to 33F. Also we rarely get .8 in a 6 hr period all snow unless it's 2/6/2010 Just waiting to see how many times the SV snow maps gets shared by morons on Facebook. check out how long those 0C 850s stick around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 it is...and probably wrong....I wonder when the other models catch on....Atari is sort of there already.... Patience sucks. We can't really discuss fine details until Monday. I think we all have the same hunch of a further east track. But man, euro seems locked on a big qpf event and Atari is pitfalling it's way there. Xbox is on an island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I just looked at instantweather 850mb temps at 96hrs. Yeah we are below 0c but -5C is way back over lake Eerie and -10C is nowhere near us. Usually not a good sign for surface temps. Looks like the Euro just dynamically cools everyone to 33F. Also we rarely get .8 in a 6 hr period all snow unless it's 2/6/2010 Just waiting to see how many times the SV snow maps gets shared by morons on Facebook. 925mb is below the whole time too, but with that track I wonder if there is a warm nose in between 850mb and 925mb some time in the mid afternoon.....the details are tricky, but the idea isn;t that tricky...the more latitude/longitude/elevation you get the more snow you will get...amounts will be tricky for anywhere...I'm not expecting much.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We'll be discussing a minor event on the heels after we finish shoveling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Wundermap has surface temps going just above freezing around 12Z, then crash big time overnight with appreciable accumulations. eta: it shows snow accumulating with those marginal surface temps during the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Eurowx snowfall map posted in the NYC thread. Not as good looking. Has about 1" along I95 6" is back in HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Patience sucks. We can't really discuss fine details until Monday. I think we all have the same hunch of a further east track. But man, euro seems locked on a big qpf event and Atari is pitfalling it's way there. Xbox is on an island we're never really going to know who is going to get what even if it comes to fruition...it is total guesswork...the models will probably be too cold, and conventional forecast maps will be 10-15 mi too far east and 200-400' feet too low with contours.... Here is my algorithm for people's backyard... Average of (3/16/07+12/5/03+12/5/09+3/6/13+12/8/13+12/10/13+3/25/14+10/29/11) x 1.75 = total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Eurowx snowfall map posted in the NYC thread. Not as good looking. Has about 1" along I95 6" is back in HGR. who cares?..it's an auto-generated snowfall map and has absolutely no forecast value at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If D.C. surface temps are on the edge with lower 850s, perhaps we could be looking at a bit of sleet like the GFS has. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=gfs&time=2014112300&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Canadian ensemble mean is ~0.15" for DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Canadian ensemble mean is ~0.15" for DC... Yay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just throwing in my 2 cents to the Euro snowmap debate.. I do have access to Euro cross sections via Accupro and I would be fairly confident in saying they support all snow from a Winchester to DCA line, and probably most of the way to Annapolis. Did two cross sections at 90 hours, one from Winchester to DCA and another from Winchester to Annapolis. The first one to DCA, the entire column was cold enough and the 0C line was literally right near the surface (near 1000mb).. probably not a 10:1 snow but still looked like all snow. Only when it was getting toward the bay in Annapolis did the 0C line creep up towards the 950mb level and maybe suggest a sleet/rain mixed in type deal. Really wish I could play show and tell with the cross section on here but I'm sure that wouldn't be allowed. At any rate, still lots of time to hash this thing out track wise much less get into the difficult details of precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thanks MAG5035... very informative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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