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Thanksgiving Eve Coastal

Coach McGuirk

By Coach McGuirk,
in Mid Atlantic

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eurojosh

eurojosh

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 6:36 PM, zwyts said:

I really like 12/5/09 as an analog for immediate DC metro..Though I think this event might be slightly wetter for immediate DC metro...I can't really speak for York Springs or Westminster or the Philly burbs

 

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/events/?event=20091205  (scroll down)

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2009/12/5/DailyHistory.html (scroll down)

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=NAM212&fhr=F048&rundt=

 

Hmmm.  That doesn't work well when I cross it with my analogs list: 

 

http://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/status-archives/  

 

<<edit to fix link>>

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 6:42 PM, eurojosh said:

Hmmm.  That doesn't work well when I cross it with my analogs list: http://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/status-archives/ 

 

link doesn't work but maybe you're looking too much at synoptics

 

warm event around the same time of the year, that started in the early AM as rain in the low 40s, changed over and was snow during the day at 33-35, with around 0.7" of QPF...1.5" for me in Mt. Pleasant....

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 6:46 PM, Scraff said:

For those interested--Mike Masco's forecast for ABC2 in Baltimore:

 

 http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/travel-nightmare-winter-storm-to-impact-maryland-wednesday

 

Seems reasonable, though I would have guessed a smidge more on the 95 corridor  

 

whoa... wasn't expecting 6-8" up here at all.

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Sparky

Sparky

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 6:46 PM, Scraff said:

For those interested--Mike Masco's forecast for ABC2 in Baltimore:

 

 http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/travel-nightmare-winter-storm-to-impact-maryland-wednesday

 

Seems reasonable, though I would have guessed a smidge more on the 95 corridor  

bullish for this area.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 6:52 PM, Ian said:

With such high variability throughout the regions' various forecasts, there's going to be lot of hits and misses.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 6:52 PM, Ian said:

Not bad for an initial forecast, certainly highlights the tricky nature of an accumulation forecast in a marginal temp situations.  

 

I just told people 1-3" for immediate downtowns and low-elevation locations near the Bay.  2-4" for areas immediately around that area but at higher elevation. 3-6" for areas >=400ft N&W of I-95 and then 5-8" for the Manchester/Mt. Parkton crowd.  

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 6:56 PM, BTRWx said:

With such high variability throughout the regions' various forecasts, there's going to be lot of hits and misses.

Early and late season snow forecasts should be graded on a curve. 

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 6:59 PM, mapgirl said:

Ive told Ian that I owe him a public apology should I get more than 6". I called him a troll for suggesting as much yesterday. 

to be fair i troll so much it's hard to tell when I'm serious. 

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Posted
Posted

This was my Facebook forecast 10 minutes ago for DC

 

2pm, Monday Update on Wednesday storm - Still low to medium confidence. Models are starting to converge on a low to medium impact event for immediate DC metro. I think we start as rain in the early morning hours, changing over to all snow late morning. Tapering off early evening. Temps around 34 during the core of the event. We will probably never hit freezing. I like a general 1-3" for DC proper. With 1" amounts downtown and increasing as you move north and west. Very little street stickage though not out of the question during heavier bursts. Mostly a cosmetic wet event that sticks to cartops, decks, and grass.. Even if we get really heavy snow that is disruptive for a while, it should melt some during lighter periods, and possibly mix with rain. Thanksgiving looks cloudy but dry, maybe a flurry, low 40s in the afternoon.

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 6:36 PM, zwyts said:

I really like 12/5/09 as an analog for immediate DC metro..Though I think this event might be slightly wetter for immediate DC metro...I can't really speak for York Springs or Westminster or the Philly burbs

 

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/events/?event=20091205  (scroll down)

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2009/12/5/DailyHistory.html (scroll down)

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=NAM212&fhr=F048&rundt=

I agree. The timing on the models right now also seems similar to 12/5/09 in terms of the window of best accumulations. Looking through spotter reports, it looks like 12/5/09 was 0.7-1" liquid in the immediate metro DC area. So, as long as the surface temp forecasts hold (33-34 at the height), I would expect pretty similar results. We had street coverage of snow anywhere NW of the beltway in 12/5/09-- did the snow stick on the streets in Tenleytown?

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