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Thanksgiving Eve Coastal

Coach McGuirk

By Coach McGuirk,
in Mid Atlantic

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winter_warlock

winter_warlock

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 12:13 AM, EastCoast NPZ said:

Disagree.  Sun-angle in late Nov is far different than March.  I'll take my chances with a border-line event now far more than I would in March.

hmm ok good point about the angle I figured the angle in nov wouldn't be all that much of a difference then in late march, but I can see how it would be  different

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 11:47 PM, Ian said:

4-8 final call imby

Hmmm...you didn't specify what units. 

 

  On 11/24/2014 at 12:07 AM, winter_warlock said:

I wonder if with it being a busy holiday weekend if that will  change the warning criteria?? so lesser snow amounts may  call for a warning because its a holiday weekend

No, warning criteria will stay the same.  I'm sure they'll just phrase the text of whatever watch/warning/advisory is issued to describe the apocalyptic travel impacts. 

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 12:26 AM, winter_warlock said:

ohh ok ty ill pay more attention to sun angle for now on

It's fairly simple. As you go a direction from December 21st, the sun angle becomes more problematic. Our sun angle will be that of Mid/Late January, so that will be the least of our concerns.
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winter_warlock

winter_warlock

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 12:27 AM, NorthArlington101 said:

It's fairly simple. As you go a direction from December 21st, the sun angle becomes more problematic. Our sun angle will be that of Mid/Late January, so that will be the least of our concerns.

cool so  sun angle isn't really  an issue like I  thought , I stand corrected. ;)

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 11:17 PM, zwyts said:

I have to slow down or I will burn myself out which I did last year on almost every event....

Obligatory storm commentary - I'm sticking with my algorithm from last night which gives me like 2.2"

Average of (3/16/07+12/5/03+12/5/09+3/6/13+12/8/13+12/10/13+3/25/14+10/29/11) x 1.75 = total.

zwyts 97 Bob Chill 42 C.A.P.E. 37 yoda 28 mitchnick 28 WxUSAF 28 Highzenberg 25 BTRWx 23 EasternUSWX 17 Ian 16 nj2va 15 Amped 14 PhineasC 13 winter_warlock 13

Ok, so where am I in that list...lol.

A couple of days ago I said, jokingly, that I'd take P003. It's remarkable how similar the latest gfs is to that earlier ens member

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 12:15 AM, winter_warlock said:

hmm ok good point about the angle I figured the angle in nov wouldn't be all that much of a difference then in late march, but I can see how it would be different

I could do the math, but for a quick response I'd say the sun angle on last years St Paddy snow would be about 20 degrees higher than it will be Wednesday.

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winter_warlock

winter_warlock

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 12:29 AM, Sparky said:

I think the city dwellers ought to be encouraged by the lower sun angle this time of year compared to March storms.  It could mean the bigger difference in those places.

my biggest issue is I live on the water so im always a degree os two higher till it freezes over in january

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astarck

astarck

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 12:34 AM, WinterWxLuvr said:

I could do the math, but for a quick response I'd say the sun angle on last years St Paddy snow would be about 20 degrees higher than it will be Wednesday.

49.9 degrees above the horizon in DC on March 17 at solar noon. 30.1 degrees above at solar noon on Wednesday. Right on with that 20 degrees.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 12:34 AM, WinterWxLuvr said:

I could do the math, but for a quick response I'd say the sun angle on last years St Paddy snow would be about 20 degrees higher than it will be Wednesday.

 

yup...we have the same sun angle as January 16th...it could make a big difference

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 12:40 AM, WxUSAF said:

I think we've figured out the lack of sun angle issue pretty thoroughly. With temps of 30-34, accumulations will be elevation dependent.

That would be true if the range was 27-31 as well. It would be from "some to some more" as opposed to from "none to some" :)

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

Not to get too weenie, but if people recall on 3/6/13 there was no high pressure, and there was a surface low to our west until the coastal took over...I think models *may* be underestimating the high pressure and/or the impact on surface temps...they all now have a broad 1024mb+ high directly to our north centered over PA in place when the storm starts....so it is a bit of a misconception that this storm has to create its own cold air...

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T. August

T. August

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 12:48 AM, Fozz said:

Not really.... when everyone is below freezing, then elevation matters much less.

Honestly, I'm a bit confused by the elevation argument with this particular storm. Obviously NW of the cities will be colder, but below freezing is below freezing. If it's snowing at BWI at 31F, and snowing in Westminster at 28F, they're both going to accumulate.

 

Maybe with this storm BWI would be something like 33F, while Westminster is 31F. Westminster would obviously have an easier time with sticking, but BWI could still get accumulation.

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 12:58 AM, Warrior Bigfoot said:

Honestly, I'm a bit confused by the elevation argument with this particular storm. Obviously NW of the cities will be colder, but below freezing is below freezing. If it's snowing at BWI at 31F, and snowing in Westminster at 28F, they're both going to accumulate.

 

Maybe with this storm BWI would be something like 33F, while Westminster is 31F. Westminster would obviously have an easier time with sticking, but BWI could still get accumulation.

 

The ground temp still matters.... if it's 31°F in BWI then it's possible that not all surfaces are cold enough for snow to accumulate well, especially if the previous few days were very warm. But when it's 28°F, snow generally accumulates without any trouble.

 

And in any case, temps will be falling so the higher elevations/colder burbs will reach freezing sooner.

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 12:57 AM, zwyts said:

Not to get too weenie, but if people recall on 3/6/13 there was no high pressure, and there was a surface low to our west until the coastal took over...I think models *may* be underestimating the high pressure and/or the impact on surface temps...they all now have a broad 1024mb+ high directly to our north centered over PA in place when the storm starts....so it is a bit of a misconception that this storm has to create its own cold air...

The high could potentially trend stronger.

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Deck Pic

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 1:03 AM, HighStakes said:

The high could potentially trend stronger.

 

 

  On 11/24/2014 at 1:03 AM, Bob Chill said:

I've been watching that too matt. Euro actually had a 1027 just n of ny in Canada IIRC

 

FWIW, our pressure was 1010mb at the onset of the precip on 3/6/13.....18z GFS has us at 1026mb at onset....there is a vague CAD signature that sets up once the front passes...

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 12:57 AM, zwyts said:

Not to get too weenie, but if people recall on 3/6/13 there was no high pressure, and there was a surface low to our west until the coastal took over...I think models *may* be underestimating the high pressure and/or the impact on surface temps...they all now have a broad 1024mb+ high directly to our north centered over PA in place when the storm starts....so it is a bit of a misconception that this storm has to create its own cold air...

 

That's interesting and I didn't even bother to look at placement of any High pressures to our north.  We've seen countless borderline storms bust here due to the models being a degree or two too cold...though we had a 'hostile' sun angle to deal with in most of those storms, too.  So I'm used to thinking along those lines and figuring we may end up a degree or two warmer than modeled...

 

Keeping the QPF juiced will also be important for us so we get high rates.  I'll be paying attention to the placement and strength of the high on future runs now.  

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2014 at 1:08 AM, nj2va said:

That's interesting and I didn't even bother to look at placement of any High pressures to our north.  We've seen countless borderline storms bust here due to the models being a degree or two too cold...though we had a 'hostile' sun angle to deal with in most of those storms, too.  So I'm used to thinking along those lines and figuring we may end up a degree or two warmer than modeled...

 

Keeping the QPF juiced will also be important for us so we get high rates.  I'll be paying attention to the placement and strength of the high on future runs now.  

You always have to look for the placement and strength of the high. I think a lot of forecast busts are because the lack of a high or under estimating the strength of the high.

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