Coach McGuirk Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I just checked the 18z GFS soundings for this thing and it's like 33-34/rain-snow mix all the way down here in SEVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Good luck. Its November, transitioning from a very mild to a chilly(not arctic) air-mass. Generally a meh setup with boundary layer temps likely in the 40s for the coastal plain with modest precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yeah, I'm not holding by breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 At least it's something to track, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 At least it's something to track, right? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Somehow Westminster will manage 2-3". Bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 All in. after reading several mets comments about what the euro is showing, i think there is the definite possibility it will occurr, the major question is, will the mid atlantic be involved. The pattern is evolving to support the storm, and the storm this week to the lakes sets the table for the storm further east. Rather interesting scenario mayb developing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Marginal scenarios hardly ever work out here, and it's late November. I will have to track closely as we will be traveling to NJ and Long Island for Thanksgiving. Something to keep an eye on for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Good day for weatherbell weenie algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Looks better, surface still very marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I use stormvista for my snow total forecast...It is very conservative when it comes to snow it actually likes 4-6" from DC-Philly...there is a sliver of 6-8 in E VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Xbox is all by itself keeping that separate low trotting across the lakes. That feature has big implications on how the coastal tracks. If it goes down like that, xbox will have scored a pretty big victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Well we have 3 days to work on the warm surface temps. Intense rates and column cooling ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GFS came west.....0.35" for DC...would be mostly snow...starts at 34-35, but temp drops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Well we have 3 days to work on the warm surface temps. Intense rates and column cooling ftw. column will be fine..there may be a minor warm nose at like 900 mb initially, but column will be frigid...it will be all about the surface.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 column will be fine..there may be a minor warm nose at like 900 mb initially, but column will be frigid...it will be all about the surface.... Good to know. I use Twister to look at soundings and its a tad slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 This far out trying to pick up on snow totals mean very little. Idk what to think though, this isn't a terribly long lead situation, and the ops and ens are showing a setup that could produce. It's a pretty long lead still, and I don't expect the GFS to get a phase correct at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Xbox is all by itself keeping that separate low trotting across the lakes. That feature has big implications on how the coastal tracks. If it goes down like that, xbox will have scored a pretty big victory. It looks nothing like its brother...in fact...it looks ridiculous at 500mb.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Canadian is wide right...also has a weak low in the plains/lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It looks nothing like its brother...in fact...it looks ridiculous at 500mb....Agreed. It's been steady with that look for a couple runs. If it ends up being a mega fail then we'll have to remember it later on in the season.ETA: euro also has the plains low but it's slower and further south. It's a tricky setup. So much can go wrong I'm going to stay on the pessimistic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Agreed. It's been steady with that look for a couple runs. If it ends up being a mega fail then we'll have to remember it later on in the season. ETA: euro also has the plains low but it's slower and further south. It's a tricky setup. So much can go wrong I'm going to stay on the pessimistic side. The large scale set up is bad...neutral AO, +NAO, 50-50 High....western ridge is too far west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The large scale set up is bad...neutral AO, +NAO, 50-50 High....western ridge is too far west.... Don't upset the weenies with all of this synoptic meteorology talk. The snow algorithms/maps are all that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 All the thing that are "wrong" with this storm are "modeled" problems.....96 hours away. And the gfs just jumped way west with precip. I'll bet if the Euro comes in with a good look in a few hours these "problems" won't seem so large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 All the thing that are "wrong" with this storm are "modeled" problems.....96 hours away. And the gfs just jumped way west with precip. I'll bet if the Euro comes in with a good look in a few hours these "problems" won't seem so large. yea, as much as we continue to hype certain model runs, the 12Z euro will really be a big indicator in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 yea, as much as we continue to hype certain model runs, the 12Z euro will really be a big indicator in a few hours. Most important run since March!!! (jk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Loooks like 12z UKIE would be just a tad too far east (scrape?)... but I only have the 96-120 SLP maps... anyone have anything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 What no 12z GFS snow maps? Looks like 6" + for much of central to eastern VA and NC away from the immediate coast, also a 6 inch area on the lower Delmarva and Southern NE. Looks a bit ridiculous lol. Boy, given the pattern its really hard to see this occurring for areas east of I-95 in the MA and SE. Not saying it wont snow at all, but the best chances for anything significant would certainly be west of the fall line, if the good precip gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 What no 12z GFS snow maps? Looks like 6" + for much of central to eastern VA and NC away from the immediate coast, also a 6 inch area on the lower Delmarva and Southern NE. Looks a bit ridiculous lol. Boy, given the pattern its really hard to see this occurring for areas east of I-95 in the MA and SE. Not saying it wont snow at all, but the best chances for anything significant would certainly be west of the fall line, if the good precip gets there. Your last sentence is what I think is least likely. Too far east would be most likely IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 What no 12z GFS snow maps? Looks like 6" + for much of central to eastern VA and NC away from the immediate coast, also a 6 inch area on the lower Delmarva and Southern NE. Looks a bit ridiculous lol. Boy, given the pattern its really hard to see this occurring for areas east of I-95 in the MA and SE. Not saying it wont snow at all, but the best chances for anything significant would certainly be west of the fall line, if the good precip gets there.Right where we want the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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