BostonWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah, Of Dennis, MA East of 00z..Come ion dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Well I like to look at wind vectors and then apply a climo mask in my mind. So in this case, the winds very near BOS are N-NNE vs NE over the harbor. Knowing model resolution and how quickly a low is deepening as well as its movement..I may fudge it a bit here and there. You can get a sense of it here. The 12z ARW and NMM aren't available yet, but look st the winds on the 12z HIRES NAM. You can get a sense of it there. Also those RGEM ptype charts. I know they aren't zoomed in, but look how close it is to the coast. The RPM shows this as well. Of course if this moves closer then the CF probably will move NW a bit, but they don't like to move very far NW as you know. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html Euro and GFS ageostrophic wind vectors are pretty similar to each other when I look in AWIPS. Like you said, N-NNE winds at BOS plus ageostrophic flow offshore equals a tug northerly at BOS that may lock in the low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 East of 00z..Come ion dude is there another panel you can link for 0z thur Rev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What a difference between GFS and NAM 2 m temps though. Basically the difference between all rain inside of 128 and 33 +SN. The GFS doesn't cool the NE MA coast until around 06z. Color me skeptical of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 A triple bunner right there. I just really don't see any concerns around your area (unless of course the CMC is scoring big time on everybody else). Yeah I told my mom 8-12" this morning. I'm in a solid spot. I'm pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What a difference between GFS and NAM 2 m temps though. Basically the difference between all rain inside of 128 and 33 +SN. The GFS doesn't cool the NE MA coast until around 06z. Color me skeptical of that. Agree. We toss those 2m temps there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro and GFS ageostrophic wind vectors are pretty similar to each other when I look in AWIPS. Like you said, N-NNE winds at BOS plus ageostrophic flow offshore equals a tug northerly at BOS that may lock in the low level cold. Dead serious Question, is there any Low level cold to even lock in? We start around 7 am around 40 F ....are we draining lower dews down w N winds or are we locking in borderline temps (when we factor in hellacious omega) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah I told my mom 8-12" this morning. I'm in a solid spot. I'm pumped. I knew we should have had T-Day at the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 sorry Jerry missed this HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PAAND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEALEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES ANDMOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THISTIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILEIS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURINGTHE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AMWEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOURWINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLYTHE HILLY AREAS.ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESSWITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINKIT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCURIN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE'RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTSINCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINKHAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TOOCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITHISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TOKMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UPBELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILESBUT THAT CAN CHANGE. sorry Jerry missed this HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PAAND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEALEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES ANDMOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THISTIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILEIS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURINGTHE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AMWEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOURWINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLYTHE HILLY AREAS.ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESSWITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINKIT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCURIN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE'RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTSINCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINKHAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TOOCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITHISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TOKMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UPBELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILESBUT THAT CAN CHANGE. Thanks Steve. Walt to the rescue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 East of 00z..Come ion dude Does it really even matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 LOL, I'm not losing it..I won't get much of anything...but I like forecasting too. When it's S+ and 18 at my house while MPM is pounding 3" of snow sand...we will see who loses it. It's always amusing being the guy who's down the drain, helping those undo the noose in the far interior. We need to have the Shawl experience the southeast side of the totals. It would set him straight. Rain at the coast in Nov comes with the territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Does it really even matter? More than what the NAM does..yet people continue to discuss and use that model ad nauseum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 More than what the NAM does..yet people continue to discuss and use that model ad nauseum It looked about the same so it doesn't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Dead serious Question, is there any Low level cold to even lock in? We start around 7 am around 40 F ....are we draining lower dews down w N winds or are we locking in borderline temps (when we factor in hellacious omega) We cool the surface with latent cooling as the atmosphere saturates then we have prospects of dynamic cooling later on looking at the NAM and Euro, but that is always the tough part. But we evaporatively cool to 32/33 in the interior as we saturate the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Dead serious Question, is there any Low level cold to even lock in? We start around 7 am around 40 F ....are we draining lower dews down w N winds or are we locking in borderline temps (when we factor in hellacious omega) Well areas will wet bulb down into the low to mid 30s. Dewpoints should be in the upper 20s to near 30 sitting just over into NH. Enough that widespread rain because onshore winds torch the boundary layer to 40 seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 this was prob already posted but just looking at Hi-Res 12z nam 1-2 F milder for NE Mass/BOS within 10 miles or so of CP (Essex county) during storm tomorrow day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here's what I'm going with for now. Been thinking about a map since last night. Seems fair. Biggest question marks are cape ann and boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 DT's first call map--cautious compared to some NWS maps. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/pb.129478830432717.-2207520000.1416935586./780199155360678/?type=1&theater DP continues to drop. 52.2/30 I don't normally say this about him...but I honestly think that's a reasonable call for most of SNE...and he actually put it out before the 6z runs came in warmer which is what's surprising to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ... He is the worst meteorologist I know of. Just obsessed with the Atlantic, regardless of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z Euro looks warmer then 0z at the surface maybe a hair colder aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ARW takes BOS from 43 at 15z down to 35 at 18z. Not a bad cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hs is the worst meteorologist I know of. Just obsessed with the Atlantic, regardless of models. I think that's reiner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z Euro looks warmer then 0z at the surface maybe a hair colder aloft A bit warmer at sfc and colder aloft than 00z at 36 hours...kind of an odd couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z Euro looks warmer then 0z at the surface maybe a hair colder aloft I thought the same, but for the interior...I think that's just noise. It doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro is just a pinch SE of 00z...but as mentioned before, it looked slightly warmer in the low levels vs 00z and slightly colder in the mid-levels. But this looks mostly like model noise to me...I think we're starting to hone in here given that the model swings are starting to be examined with a magnifying glass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think that's reiner He and Bouchard both blow. Channel 7 is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ARW takes BOS from 43 at 15z down to 35 at 18z. Not a bad cool down. I was feeling snow last nite at 0z now it looks like rain or an inch or two at Boston and I am thinking low levels are trending warmer as models sniff this airmass out , hopefully i'm just off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The Euro looks to have some interesting QPF couplets at 30-hrs...like small blobs of high QPF randomly scattered in like western CT and the Hudson Valley. What's causing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 A bit warmer at sfc and colder aloft than 00z at 36 hours...kind of an odd couplet. I thought the same, but for the interior...I think that's just noise. It doesn't matter. It was a hair as will mentioned east but yeah, Noise really 5-10 miles or so, Qpf looked scaled back some from 0z, But i only see shading no numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.