Max Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Stick a fork in snow growth by 21z lol Well duh Ryan, even the NAM has the peak warm air aloft at 21z to 0z so even if the column is saturated the flakes would be total crap, but at least in the NAM it doesn't bring in the dryness aloft until about 23z maybe even not until 0z based on the RH time height maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On BUFKIT GFS is not exactly exciting for Hartford. All sorts of issues sneaky warm layer at nearly 600 mb and a very "warm" cloud for quite some time. Wouldn't you trust the hi res over the globals at this point for sneaky warm layers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Stick a fork in snow growth by 21z lol that's OK as long as we thump before that. I'm personally thinking our best rates are between about 2 and 10 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Wouldn't you trust the hi res over the globals at this point for sneaky warm layers? Not really. Definitely not the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 4-6 to 10-14. Chris must be back on short term Yeah good god what happened to GYX map? Doubled or tripled in spots. Not much changed from 00z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Not really. Definitely not the NAM. So then go Euro its in between the two. And no trust in the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ray, check out the WRF from NWS BTV. You can see it here too. Note it becomes a bit less notable later in the aftn, but it is there. Pushes west a bit too. The idea is not to take it verbatim all the time, it just gives you an idea. http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 LOL, I'm not losing it..I won't get much of anything...but I like forecasting too. When it's S+ and 18 at my house while MPM is pounding 3" of snow sand...we will see who loses it. Haha, all ya lose it when the picnic tables get crushed. I was getting death threats after that one 12z ECMWF run that tracked the low into CT. Everyone has their "this sucks" moment. Mine is usually getting left out of the party here when these events hit...then when I am having a party no one shows up Good luck all you guys to the south. I think 8-12" for MPM, Dave, Dendrite, Dryslot, Blizz, ORH, etc is a lock. You guys are going to rip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 So then go Euro its in between the two. And no trust in the RGEM? Will see what the Euro has at 12z. I like the RGEM in general but it has been upgraded - don't know how the new version will work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 For a weenie like me the timing is great (other than an apt). Most people will be awake, getting to watch this build. I love watching the wv loops as these roll in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Right, I was kinda expecting each band to be the next higher band on the map. lol! Gold star. Technical difficulties arose on the mid shift. We had our hand forced into a color scale change, which in turn knocked all categories over 3" off one level. So indeed we were thinking one range category higher than what you saw on the morning map. The bug is fixed now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Princeton? Sorry to ask but limited phone posting during work hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 LOL, I'm not losing it..I won't get much of anything...but I like forecasting too. When it's S+ and 18 at my house while MPM is pounding 3" of snow sand...we will see who loses it. You've got that right!! Them be the worst. Stick a fork in snow growth by 21z lol Hellacious and noose-worthy. There's the qpf/accumulation killer that allows ALY and GYX be more aggressive than BOX with their totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 weenies have some knowledge but forecast by their emotions. meteorologists have some emotion but forecast by their knowledge we are seeing it all front and center today. not all weenies and not all Mets, the few Mets who aren't emotionally invested are the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Do any of the mets see anything with the current radar / surface maps / pressure falls, that indicate whether things are going one way or the other (east, vs. west)? Ensemble sensitivity suggests that a deeper shortwave and higher heights near the Great Lakes at 00z last evening would be the key to a slightly deeper/further west surface low. Based on model initializations at 12z, there is very good agreement with the morning soundings. Nothing glaring to says track shifting in a large way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ray, check out the WRF from NWS BTV. You can see it here too. Note it becomes a bit less notable later in the aftn, but it is there. Pushes west a bit too. The idea is not to take it verbatim all the time, it just gives you an idea. http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Nice look to it. 1pm scared me w nnw/sse orientation to 35f isotherm but then that pushes east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Gold star. Technical difficulties arose on the mid shift. We had our hand forced into a color scale change, which in turn knocked all categories over 3" off one level. So indeed we were thinking one range category higher than what you saw on the morning map. The bug is fixed now though. Was not hard to tell it was your map as you seem to do more dabbling in the grids, I like the new color scheme, Removes doubt about what shade your in............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Stick a fork in snow growth by 21z lol all the precipitation is over by 36 anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even to the CT shore near HVN sees 6+. HFD sees 7 or so and NCT sees 8-10 or 11 in NW ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even to the CT shore near HVN sees 6+. HFD sees 7 or so and NCT sees 8-10 or 11 in NW ct So I guess Ryan should redraw his map eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 DT's first call map--cautious compared to some NWS maps. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/pb.129478830432717.-2207520000.1416935586./780199155360678/?type=1&theater DP continues to drop. 52.2/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm a bit out of my league here... what's producing these wispy echoes over Louisiana? DPVA rounding the base of the trough? Divergent entrance region of the upper jet streak? Some combination? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 So I guess Ryan should redraw his map eh? I don't care what he does or doesn't do. That's my idea and my totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 DT's first call map--cautious compared to some NWS maps. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/pb.129478830432717.-2207520000.1416935586./780199155360678/?type=1&theater DP continues to drop. 52.2/30 Don't challenge him on that map, He will rip one of your family members..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ukie is east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ukie is east Yeah, Of Dennis, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Princeton? Sorry to ask but limited phone posting during work hours. sorry Jerry missed this HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA LEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE** 930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95. SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY AREAS. ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS WITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINK IT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW. BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR IN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE'RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS INCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINK HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TO OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE, BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING. SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITH ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95 DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST. PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES BUT THAT CAN CHANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ukie is east C'mon dude...east of what. WTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What is Ryans updated map? I can't see it on my phone atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 4-6 to 10-14. Chris must be back on short term A triple bunner right there. I just really don't see any concerns around your area (unless of course the CMC is scoring big time on everybody else). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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