ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 The inverted trough for Thanksgiving will have to be watched. It's been showing up to different levels of extent on pieces of guidance. It could be the type of thing that drops 1-2" somewhere when it isn't really being forecasted at all. Could suprise some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 CF has a N to S appearance any intrusion back to 128 "as of now" is negligible. Wow there is going to be a huge gradiant. The NWS has much at stake being the first widespread accumulation, combine that with the Holiday, memories are made. People will remember and get caught off guard when the biggy of the season strikes. Can't please everyone so you got to please yourself. All right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Tic tic tickle tickle... Subsidence exhaust from Woburn poundage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah always a good idea. The warmth from 850-650 is more concerning though especially since the Euro is pretty close. That's the big issue for you through Ray etc to figure out. 650mb warm layer..lol. So high up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Congrats, HubbDave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The fact is most of us are going to see 6-12 inches of snow and some even more near MPM.Do people really care if they get a couple hours of sleet on top to lock in the pack an extra day or 2 next week when it milds up for a few days? Who cares if you sleet. It's preporsterous people rooting against sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I knew I liked you Well that was speaking for the 128 area and beyond. GFS loves to warm the lower levels there thanks to its resolution. We know it's usually false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Subsidence exhaust from Woburn poundage? No. This is waa thump. Diff beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The fact is most of us are going to see 6-12 inches of snow and some even more near MPM.Do people really care if they get a couple hours of sleet on top to lock in the pack an extra day or 2 next week when it milds up for a few days? Who cares if you sleet. It's preporsterous people rooting against sleet There is still time to bust warm, as previously mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The fact is most of us are going to see 6-12 inches of snow and some even more near MPM.Do people really care if they get a couple hours of sleet on top to lock in the pack an extra day or 2 next week when it milds up for a few days? Who cares if you sleet. It's preporsterous people rooting against sleet Spoken like someone concerned about pelting. Torch continues. 52.4/35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The fact is most of us are going to see 6-12 inches of snow and some even more near MPM.Do people really care if they get a couple hours of sleet on top to lock in the pack an extra day or 2 next week when it milds up for a few days? Who cares if you sleet. It's preporsterous people rooting against sleet Glad you're resigned yourself to the pinging that will be upon Mount Tolland tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 sleet early, middle, late part of storm or all through it? Lot's of times we get it toward the end in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Glad you're resigned yourself to the pinging that will be upon Mount Tolland tomorrow. its 61 degrees out today, did anyone forecast this? Tomorrow is nowcast, RGEM is my model of choice as of now. I could be looking at inches of sleet but as I said its 61 today, that alone is pretty awesome, white Turkey day. got to love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The inverted trough for Thanksgiving will have to be watched. It's been showing up to different levels of extent on pieces of guidance. It could be the type of thing that drops 1-2" somewhere when it isn't really being forecasted at all. Could suprise some folks. Thank you Will! I've been wondering about that Norlun look for awhile my self... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thank you Will! I've been wondering about that Norlun look for awhile my self... King James has been all abou that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 No. This is waa thump. Diff beast. LOL, you are getting wise. There is always Kevin to work up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Subsidence exhaust from Woburn poundage? burlington poundage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 sleet early, middle, late part of storm or all through it? Lot's of times we get it toward the end in this region. Sleet will be in the latter part of the storm for interior regions pike-northward...a bit earlier to the south and east. It's really not going to change the impact too much...it might give ORH 9" instead of 12" or something like that if it comes in slightly sooner. I wouldn't obsess over the sleet. There's a lot of snow that comes before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The norlun has been on the models for the last day or so to different degrees, But as is the case, Not going to know where it ends up until its upon someone if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 King James has been all abou that. He is planing on riding it across the gulf stream on those toasty SST's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 LOL, you are getting wise. There is always Kevin to work up. Can you point me in the direction of the meso guidance that you use to determine cf positioning, ageostrophic component, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I mean if you are Ray to Will down to even TOL..you are getting a good deal of snow. Does it matter of it's 6 or 8, 8 or 11 in November? I'd hit that so hard and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Kicked up a notch........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Kicked up a notch........ I think BOX just changed their package as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 BTW--that's a really early start time on the GFS. 7:00a.m. or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I mean if you are Ray to Will down to even TOL..you are getting a good deal of snow. Does it matter of it's 6 or 8, 8 or 11 in November? I'd hit that so hard and fast. No, that doesn't make much difference...I can deal with 8", or 8"....11" would give me the Novie record, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Connecticut Valley shadow effect? is it enough to knock down totals down to 2-5 in northern Connecticut and the lower Pioneer Valley because that's what some local meteorologists were going with this morning. I think that's over conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I mean if you are Ray to Will down to even TOL..you are getting a good deal of snow. Does it matter of it's 6 or 8, 8 or 11 in November? I'd hit that so hard and fast. Scott--I think you're losing it. You've always been so even-keeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 I mean if you are Ray to Will down to even TOL..you are getting a good deal of snow. Does it matter of it's 6 or 8, 8 or 11 in November? I'd hit that so hard and fast. For those with Severe Jackpot Fetish Disorder, it matters. But yeah, that is what I was just posting before...if you are far enough north to get ripped with the core WCB snows for about 6 hours, the sleet is really not that big of a game-changer...so you end up with 7-8 inches of dense pack vs 13" of fluffier snow. Big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Scott--I think you're losing it. You've always been so even-keeled. Says the king of qpf swing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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