tamarack Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12/5/'03, 1/23/'05 type configuration... 1st one brought 24" at my place, 2nd one 1.8". That nails it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Gods Country to Dendrite to Dryslot. AWT jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Man, I like how this is setting up. Good 'ole fashoned, rt 128-Boston area storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Gods Country to Dendrite to Dryslot. AWT jackpot. I said that, what, about 3 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'd take the SREF mean for BOS even cut in half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Turning into a full fledged gully washer down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Man, I like how this is setting up. Good 'ole fashoned, rt 128-Boston area storm. This would be a big event 3-4 weeks from now. It's gonna be a good one for you, but sweet track later in the cold season when all levels of atmosphere are colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 1st one brought 24" at my place, 2nd one 1#8"# That nails it down# I mean from a Boston area perspective regarding the cf set up. I think it may set up a little further inland, closer to rt 128, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I said that, what, about 3 days ago? lol, Yes you did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This would be a big event 3-4 weeks from now. It's gonna be a good one for you, but sweet track later in the cold season when all levels of atmosphere are colder. Yup, We want to see more of these come Jan, Just the amount of these coastal systems this fall has me raised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 lol, You did I know Will is going to fire out a retort to the contrary in the form of some elaborate graph from the depths of the CPC site, but it sure does seems to set up there a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I know Will is going to fire out a retort to the contrary in the form of some elaborate graph from the depths of the CDC site, but it sure does seems to set up there a lot. You shall feel the wrath of stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I said that, what, about 3 days ago? thats not what the RGEM shows, thats a you to oRH hills to Kevin JP, just north of the CF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 There could be really nice enhancement near the CF not so much for temp differential (prob only talking a 4-5F difference), but the high building down looks more impressive, so there will be some good low level convergence. We'll have to see...the models will often underestimate the difference in wind direction right along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GYX snowfall map updated: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I said that, what, about 3 days ago? Yeah you did. I think secretly we all know that's the starting point in most of these. Just the right axis of cold air being inland and hilly, plus far enough NW to avoid sleet, and yet far enough SE to get in on heavy precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 You shall feel the wrath of stats. Meh...we've been through it before. It's selective memory at work. We tend to forget about the times they are left out of the max when we're getting blitzed ourselves, but then pound out diatribes on the keyboard when we are left looking at the CCB rotting over their head....and it didn't help that it happened twice in close proximity (2011) to reinforce the selective memory process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think every poster here has though From ORH NW was going to be the winner.. It's not rocket science..So everyone pat themselves on back i Guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 There could be really nice enhancement near the CF not so much for temp differential (prob only talking a 4-5F difference), but the high building down looks more impressive, so there will be some good low level convergence. We'll have to see...the models will often underestimate the difference in wind direction right along the front. There definitely will be. It looks like a more narrow area of enhancement, but there will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah you did. I think secretly we all know that's the starting point in most of these. Just the right axis of cold air being inland and hilly, plus far enough NW to avoid sleet, and yet far enough SE to get in on heavy precipitation. I think there is something to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The pinger line really does seem to like to set up along i84 in CT. Seemed like it did that all of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Meh...we've been through it before. It's selective memory at work. We tend to forget about the times they are left out of the max when we're getting blitzed ourselves, but then pound out diatribes on the keyboard when we are left looking at the CCB rotting over their head....and it didn't help that it happened twice in close proximity (2011) to reinforce the selective memory process. I never forget when I pivot...trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 in fact all modeling has the best snow in the ORH Hills NE from there and NW RI. Hunchie Dave to ORH to Kev To Ray win I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I love how some passively aggresively "pat themselves on the back" for guessing that this would track 50 miles west of the BM, yet then scold those who mention they called the deformation area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 I never forget when I pivot...trust me Yep, but you forget all the times that they don't. Didn't hear much about it in Feb 2013, Mar 2013, Jan 27, 2011, etc, etc. Well, no need to rehash the stats of coastal storms...we've been over it before in more detail when I went back through the past 15 years. This really isn't the thread for it anyway. But this one could certainly set up well for them..,..the only difference in this particular setup is the H7 low is more like an elongated front...so the best deformation might almost be right underneath it versus to the northwest of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Meh...we've been through it before. It's selective memory at work. We tend to forget about the times they are left out of the max when we're getting blitzed ourselves, but then pound out diatribes on the keyboard when we are left looking at the CCB rotting over their head....and it didn't help that it happened twice in close proximity (2011) to reinforce the selective memory process. I don't tend to, I actually have bad memories of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yep, but you forget all the times that they don't. Didn't hear much about it in Feb 2013, Mar 2013, Jan 27, 2011, etc, etc. Well, no need to rehash the stats of coastal storms...we've been over it before in more detail when I went back through the past 15 years. This really isn't the thread for it anyway. But this one could certainly set up well for them..,..the only difference in this particular setup is the H7 low is more like an elongated front...so the best deformation might almost be right underneath it versus to the northwest of it I wasn't posting much during 2013, period. Ok...2011, you got me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I love how some passively aggresively "pat themselves on the back" for guessing that this would track 50 miles west of the BM, yet then scold those who mention they called the deformation area. is there really a deformation area with this?/ I think it not a classic comma head CCB storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Meh...we've been through it before. It's selective memory at work. We tend to forget about the times they are left out of the max when we're getting blitzed ourselves, but then pound out diatribes on the keyboard when we are left looking at the CCB rotting over their head....and it didn't help that it happened twice in close proximity (2011) to reinforce the selective memory process. There may be some forum regional dynamics in play too. That axis is smack in the middle of our regional forum, so the big ticket storms that encompass most posters seem to lead to events where we are NW fringe up here, the central areas from Berks to Dendrite to Dryslot seem to be smack in the middle of it, while further south worries about mixing. I'm not sure I'm explaining my thought well, but when they get hit I'm thinking it was close but of course they are the ones that get crushed. Likewise the guys to the south are thinking man we were so close but they got it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS is warmer again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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