CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Re: 0z trends and what BOX saw: I think we all observed and agreed that 0z RGEM and 21z SREFs (and 0z UK) did in fact tick east and colder for eastern SNE, 0z NAM was colder especially for eastern MA with more northern ageostrophic flow and heavy rates, and 0z GFS held. I don't think BOX or anyone here was incorrectly reading the 0z suite per what they wanted. The 6z trend (NAM, GFS, 3z SREFs) is pretty undeniably a tick back west from the 0z suite. As was stated, all little bumps within a tight cluster, but very big differences in outcome between 0z vs. 6z for eastern MA. There was zero east shift though. If anything, some of the mid levels came west and hence warmer solutions aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 I thought the BL definitely looked colder on the 00z suite than before...maybe that is what BOX was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Boston under a watch. RGEM stayed pretty cold on the 6z run fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The only fear I have is the pelting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GYX map .... less robust than I was expecting/hoping StormTotalSnowFcst.png You will see that change, I know its not Chris's map as he was on short term yesterday but i think its in his time frame today and modeled qpf is higher then those totals as they bumped up overnight, I'm going 9-12" here, We can always go higher if need be............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'll be watching the RGEM closely for the CP of E MA....it still is going very bullish for the snow. It should be getitng into it's very useful range today. It just had a recent upgrade, so we'll see how it performs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 18z NAM was colder for the BOS area compared to 00z, but RGEM was pretty comparable, maybe a hair cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is gonna have a classic CF right at BOS or just SE. Evident on all hi-res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You will see that change, I know its not Chris's map as he was on short term yesterday but i think its in his time frame today and modeled qpf is higher then those totals as they bumped up overnight Ground thawed out, heavy wet snow incoming, warm weather next week. what's the point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is gonna have a classic CF right at BOS or just SE. Evident on all hi-res models. This could be a 1/8 SM +SN parachute bomb pretty close to to the water...even the still-westward Euro had the 35F isotherm right up to Logan airport....though with Euro solution, there would eventually be some pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'll be watching the RGEM closely for the CP of E MA....it still is going very bullish for the snow. It should be getitng into it's very useful range today. It just had a recent upgrade, so we'll see how it performs: Cf enhancement for ray and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This may be a classic Braintree split CF. Early season events love that area for coastal fronts. Extend that SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is gonna have a classic CF right at BOS or just SE. Evident on all hi-res models. And for those that are west of it will rejoice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This could be a 1/8 SM +SN parachute bomb pretty close to to the water...even the still-westward Euro had the 35F isotherm right up to Logan airport....though with Euro solution, there would eventually be some pellets. I'm about to succumb to my fears I think. Unless this ticks east last minute, my goose may be cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ground thawed out, heavy wet snow incoming, warm weather next week. what's the point? As long as we can hit the trails around the holidays, Don't really care much beforehand, Mother nature we can't control, Plus my engine is still scattered across the bench.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is gonna have a classic CF right at BOS or just SE. Evident on all hi-res models. Yup. N/S orientation. I think it will be withing 5mi of the coast along the N Shore, than drape BOS and than down into SE MA somewhere between I-95 and Rt 24, waffling around with intensity, I think I'm a bit more bullish than BOX right now down this way as I feel we'll be able to scour out that warm tongue better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is going to be a good thump in short order for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You will see that change, I know its not Chris's map as he was on short term yesterday but i think its in his time frame today and modeled qpf is higher then those totals as they bumped up overnight, I'm going 9-12" here, We can always go higher if need be............ Right, I was kinda expecting each band to be the next higher band on the map. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ground thawed out, heavy wet snow incoming, warm weather next week. what's the point? The point: the experience itself and the three or four coldish days with low sun following it--so several days of white before it warms up and we wait for the next cold spell with storm development in mid December or thereabouts (unless the models have it wrong and we get it earlier). Unfortunately, we live in a SNE climate not UP Michigan or Duluth MN. We've got to enjoy what we get when we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm about to succumb to my fears I think. Unless this ticks east last minute, my goose may be cooked. Just cave and get a motel room in Canton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 As long as we can hit the trails around the holidays, Don't really care much beforehand, Mother nature we can't control, Plus my engine is still scattered across the bench.......... any riding before new years is gravy. this won't set the table for that, you need nice frozen ground before you start working on the base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Right, I was kinda expecting each band to be the next higher band on the map. lol! Somebody did not like something they saw to drop those totals overnight, I thought it was odd but don't know who the forecaster was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 incredible bust potentialI on one of the heaviest travel days of the year. I completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'd be shocked if Kevin's area doesn't do well. ping ping ping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just cave and get a motel room in Canton. If you hear about a violent struggle between a camper at Blue Hill and Milton police...you know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think we independently came to the same conclusion before BOX did last night: 00z model suite has trended slightly eastward with surface lowtracking over or near the 40n/70w benchmark...with 850 mb circulationmoving across Cape Cod and the islands and 700 mb low developing andtracking over bdl-orh-mht line. 00z European model (ecmwf) on the northwest edge ofthe envelope and 00z GFS on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. And for Boston area, the 0z suite did in fact depict a cooler BL, as BOX summarized: As of now the NAM and GFS suggest strong banding feature 18z Wednesday - 00z Thursday over central CT/northwest Rhode Islandextending northeast through Worcester County and into northeast Massachusetts including the greater Boston area. Precipitation intensity associated with this band should be sufficient for a changeover to all snow along with snow rates of 1-2" per hour. In addition...with surface low tracking vicinity of the 40n/70w benchmark coupled with strong pressure falls...surface winds over northeast Massachusetts including Boston should be backing to the north-northeast. This will provide additional low level cooling. But now with the 6z runs... confidence goes down significantly for Boston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Interesting harvey last night used the term bust potential.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 any riding before new years is gravy. this won't set the table for that, you need nice frozen ground before you start working on the base No it won't, Earliest you could get on trails is Dec 15th, New years most years we are riding here, So anything sooner is a bonus, Can't go far if the lakes and ponds are not frozen, And we have dealt plenty over the years with thawed ground, Many clubs have had to go into bogs and open them up so that they could freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 ping ping ping Prob prevents jackpot fetishes in that area...but even the areas that ping in N RI/N CT should do really well on the initial hellacious front end WCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Interesting harvey last night used the term bust potential.....lol. high or low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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