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Thanksgiving Weekend Weather (Wed-Sun)


ORH_wxman

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h7 low continues shifting east ..Dollars to donuts it ends up tracking very near PVD

 

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW

TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00

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h7 low continues shifting east ..Dollars to donuts it ends up tracking very near PVD

 

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW

TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION

MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND

TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00

Is it still east of the sfc low?
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h7 low continues shifting east ..Dollars to donuts it ends up tracking very near PVD

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW

TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION

MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND

TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00

Check out the 6z runs ;)

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Mike whined his way to a foot, Overnight trend certainly helped your cause

 

LOL.  I hadn't said a word.

 

I'm riding the ALY map (why are their amounts so much higher than BOX?) and the 06z GFS/NAM rain.  Choo-choo!  I still think the real winners will be the HubbDave-Dendrite areas.  Congrats them.

 

It's horrible out there this morning, 54.4/47 off a high of 56.1 and a midnight low of 52.4

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Even up here, it's forecast to be in the lower 30's tomorrow.  So, what comes down then will likely be pretty dense, cutting down on accumulations.  We dip into the 20's for the evening edition of snow, so that should be better.

 

It's plenty cold aloft there, you'll be fine.You may waste .05" for compaction in wet snow to start. 

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Here is a figure from a study on ice crystal growth regimes (Bailey and Hallett 2009).

 

figure15.gif

 

It's interesting to see what the snow growth environment looks like on this mornings 06z GFS, which seems to be in better agreement with the Euro.

 

For ORH at 21z Wed, the greatest lift is forecast to be just above 700 mb (white curve; lowering from ~550 mb at 12z Wed). Temperatures are around -5C in this region which corresponds to the needles/columns for higher ice supersaturation, which is present due to the profile being nearly saturated with respect to liquid.

 

post-869-0-41853900-1416914731_thumb.png

 

At ALB for the same time, the greatest lift is around 550 mb due to the farther northwest position relative to the coastal low (and thus the maximum frontogenesis occurs at a higher altitude). While omega is not as negative as at ORH, this maximum lift occurs where the temperatures are near -13C. This is where dendritic crystals are favored to grow, again based on the diagram. However, you can see that the dew point is slightly lower than temperature in these regions, meaning that the ice supersaturation is less than at ORH. Therefore, the huge dendrites that might be seen at liquid water saturation will probably not be present. However, the modest-sized dendrites will tend to aggregate more efficiently than needles and those produce a greater proportion of lower density aggregates. This effect by itself will tend to lead to greater snow ratios.

 

post-869-0-34151700-1416915734_thumb.png

 

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