Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 HR NAM also showing 10+.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 snow growth issues? what is the best temp to maximize?-12C to -18C for the huge dendritic crystals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Tough to say. You really want -8C in the cloud to get nucleation. Maybe some salt nuclei will help lower that. It's a bit of a messy profile even though most people here are below 0C. Hopefully there's enough lift for the marginal peeps to overcome those temp issues. I'll defer to the more experienced guys here. I think you can handle it just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I was on my phone all day so I couldn't see soundings. I figured it was the usual H75-H8 torch. Date: 45 hour Eta valid 21Z WED 26 NOV 14 Station: 41.73,-72.18 Latitude: 41.73 Longitude: -72.18 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 103 SFC 996 138 -0.1 -0.9 95 0.8 -0.4 10 12 273.4 274.0 272.9 283.1 3.59 2 950 512 -2.8 -3.3 96 0.5 -3.0 21 32 274.3 274.8 272.8 282.9 3.14 3 900 940 -2.8 -3.5 95 0.8 -3.1 37 35 278.6 279.2 275.5 287.8 3.27 4 850 1394 -2.5 -3.2 95 0.6 -2.8 40 34 283.5 284.1 278.4 293.6 3.56 5 800 1873 -4.7 -5.3 95 0.7 -4.9 64 26 286.2 286.8 279.3 295.4 3.21 6 750 2376 -7.7 -8.4 95 0.7 -7.9 93 33 288.2 288.7 279.6 296.1 2.70 7 700 2919 -3.0 -3.2 98 0.2 -3.1 152 52 299.2 300.0 286.1 312.1 4.32 8 650 3511 -0.1 -0.1 100 0.0 -0.1 178 77 308.9 310.0 290.8 326.9 5.85 9 600 4150 -2.4 -2.5 99 0.1 -2.5 196 86 313.3 314.3 291.7 330.0 5.29 10 550 4837 -6.4 -7.0 96 0.5 -6.7 206 87 316.4 317.2 291.6 329.7 4.13 that's funny that's my exact latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Where does the 700 low track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 We thump! Can you run 48 and 51? 48 1000 -0.7 -1.4 94.9 975 -2.2 -2.6 97.1 950 -3.7 -4.1 97 925 -4.6 -5.1 95.8 900 -4.2 -4.6 96.5 875 -3.8 -4.3 96.8 850 -3.8 -4.2 97.2 825 -4.1 -4.7 95.6 800 -6.2 -6.7 96.1 775 -8 -8.6 95.8 750 -7.4 -7.8 97.2 725 -3.1 -3.3 98.8 700 -0.6 -0.7 100 675 -0.6 -0.6 99.7 650 -1.9 -2 99.5 625 -3.9 -4.3 97.4 600 -6 -7 51 1000 -0.3 -1.7 90.8 975 -2.1 -2.8 95.4 950 -3.8 -4 98.5 925 -5.3 -5.6 98.2 900 -5.9 -6.3 96.7 875 -5.6 -6.1 96.7 850 -5.6 -6 97.6 825 -5.3 -5.5 98.2 800 -6.5 -6.8 97.8 775 -8.5 -8.7 98.3 750 -9.2 -9.3 99.5 725 -5.6 -5.7 99 700 -3.7 -3.8 99.5 675 -3.8 -4 99 650 -5.1 -5.3 99 625 -7.1 -7.3 98.6 600 -9.4 -10.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Where does the 700 low track? Over or just to my east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Where does the 700 low track? southeast NY at 45hr to about Lawrence at 51hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think Powderfreak must be suddenly emerging from some ski shop in Stowe with a grin on his face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Where does the 700 low track? Over the Berkshires and then jumps ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 48 1000 -0.7 -1.4 94.9 975 -2.2 -2.6 97.1 950 -3.7 -4.1 97 925 -4.6 -5.1 95.8 900 -4.2 -4.6 96.5 875 -3.8 -4.3 96.8 850 -3.8 -4.2 97.2 825 -4.1 -4.7 95.6 800 -6.2 -6.7 96.1 775 -8 -8.6 95.8 750 -7.4 -7.8 97.2 725 -3.1 -3.3 98.8 700 -0.6 -0.7 100 675 -0.6 -0.6 99.7 650 -1.9 -2 99.5 625 -3.9 -4.3 97.4 600 -6 -7 51 1000 -0.3 -1.7 90.8 975 -2.1 -2.8 95.4 950 -3.8 -4 98.5 925 -5.3 -5.6 98.2 900 -5.9 -6.3 96.7 875 -5.6 -6.1 96.7 850 -5.6 -6 97.6 825 -5.3 -5.5 98.2 800 -6.5 -6.8 97.8 775 -8.5 -8.7 98.3 750 -9.2 -9.3 99.5 725 -5.6 -5.7 99 700 -3.7 -3.8 99.5 675 -3.8 -4 99 650 -5.1 -5.3 99 625 -7.1 -7.3 98.6 600 -9.4 -10.1 Thanks! Gets iffy at 48, but I like the look. Probably won't be fluffy dendrites falling, but I'll take it for November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Well Scott there's your Nam banding signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Where does the 700 low track? Looks like NW NJ to Portsmouth, NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Warm tongue is in the 700-750mb level in SE MA. Looks like it would be a brief rain to snow thump than sleet. Typical SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Jerry looks like tight gradient that straddles I95 through Jersey... you're good for a least several inches The NAM should undergo drug-testing prior to each run. This is warmer but omega through the roof with warning criteria for most of SNE except for far southeast. Well the good news is the house is solidly 15 miles west of 95 and 10 west of route 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks like NW NJ to Portsmouth, NH Sounds tasty. Onto the GFS and the entertainment it might provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Warm tongue is in the 700-750mb level in SE MA. Looks like it would be a brief rain to snow thump than sleet. Typical SWFE. That looks like it would be a pretty healthy thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Almost sat down and made a snowfall map. Figured wise thing to do is wait until tomorrow. I'm thinking 2-3" directly at Logan right now. Maxes N ORH county. Interior NE Ma looks good too as long as you aren't too far south and east. Going to be a tremendous gradient somewhere in Suffolk, Middlesex, Essex counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks like NW NJ to Portsmouth, NH Prob over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 H7 goes right overhead in nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Most of the lift is actually east of the low with TREMENDOUS warm air advection. That changes as it tries to close off on SNE for peeps further north. Don't obsess about the H7 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Most of the lift is actually east of the low with TREMENDOUS warm air advection. That changes as it tries to close off on SNE for peeps further north. Don't obsess about the H7 low.bingo and it's not swfe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Such a weird sounding down here: Just hypothetically, would this column support snow? If no part of the sounding touches the 0C isotherm, no matter how close it gets, is it snow, verbatim, or is it more complicated than that? I realize that this is way too fine from a forecasting perspective, but wondering about the mechanics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 When do the GGEM and UK come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Such a weird sounding down here: mtown_nam_45.gif Just hypothetically, would this column support snow? If no part of the sounding touches the 0C isotherm, no matter how close it gets, is it snow, verbatim, or is it more complicated than that? I realize that this is way too fine from a forecasting perspective, but wondering about the mechanics. Snow verbatim, but about to mix with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Where would the snow growth region be for this storm? We talking higher than 800mb? Because there is a layer between 775 and maybe as high as 735mb in N. CT that is in the -10C to -15C range for dendritic growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 PWATS near 1" for a snow sounding? Moisture bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 warmest Boston area soundings at 45 hr, warm layer at 650: Date: 45 hour Eta valid 21Z WED 26 NOV 14 Station: 42.23,-71.06Latitude: 42.23Longitude: -71.06-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E Wmb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1010 30 0.3 -0.1 97 0.4 0.1 15 17 272.6 273.3 272.8 282.8 3.761 1000 112 -0.4 16 23 272.82 950 520 -3.0 -3.5 96 0.5 -3.1 29 35 274.2 274.7 272.7 282.7 3.113 900 949 -2.9 -3.5 96 0.6 -3.1 42 28 278.5 279.1 275.5 287.7 3.294 850 1401 -3.7 -4.2 96 0.6 -3.9 44 30 282.3 282.9 277.4 291.6 3.285 800 1879 -5.5 -6.2 94 0.8 -5.8 70 27 285.3 285.8 278.6 293.9 3.006 750 2382 -7.0 -7.7 95 0.6 -7.2 105 30 289.0 289.5 280.1 297.3 2.867 700 2927 -1.2 -1.4 99 0.2 -1.3 164 62 301.1 302.0 287.4 316.0 4.938 650 3519 -0.6 -0.7 99 0.1 -0.7 180 85 308.2 309.3 290.4 325.5 5.599 600 4159 -2.2 -2.3 99 0.1 -2.3 198 93 313.6 314.6 291.9 330.5 5.3810 550 4846 -5.8 -6.3 96 0.5 -6.0 209 89 317.2 318.1 292.0 331.2 4.3511 500 5586 -10.6 -11.4 94 0.8 -10.9 215 88 320.1 320.8 291.9 330.7 3.2112 450 6389 -15.4 -16.5 92 1.1 -15.8 213 93 323.8 324.3 292.2 331.7 2.3413 400 7269 -21.0 -22.5 88 1.4 -21.4 210 101 327.6 328.0 292.6 333.1 1.5714 350 8241 -27.5 -30.2 78 2.7 -28.0 210 113 331.6 331.8 293.0 334.9 0.8915 300 9332 -35.5 -38.7 73 3.1 -35.9 206 127 335.3 335.4 293.6 337.0 0.4516 250 10574 -46.0 204 133 337.617 200 12012 -59.2 212 139 339.118 150 13772 -65.8 224 131 356.819 100 16232 -67.0 229 99 398.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Can you get sleet with a warm tongue above 700mb. Isn't that going to be above the cloud layer where the snow crystals are growing in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Where would the snow growth region be for this storm? We talking higher than 800mb? Because there is a layer between 775 and maybe as high as 735mb in N. CT that is in the -10C to -15C range for dendritic growth. The main lift looks to be between 700-500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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