TalcottWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 About 48 more hrs. It's been absolutely abysmal and gotten even more useless over the past year? Am I crazy to say that? I sort of scratch my head seeing BOX consider the SREF blend as a major factor in their forecast. I would be more likely to weigh in the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREFs look good, but are they in their wheelhouse yet?Trick question? I think we're starting to come to a consensus among the models. Now we just need to figure out the finer details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 About 48 more hrs. that's what I figured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's been absolutely abysmal and gotten even more useless over the past year? Am I crazy to say that? I sort of scratch my head seeing BOX consider the SREF blend as a major factor in their forecast. I would be more likely to weigh in the NAM. Judging by their snowfall map, it looks like thet didnt weigh the sref at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Judging by their snowfall map, it looks like thet didnt weigh the sref at all NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA643 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE 24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
met_fan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 this seems reasonable and pretty much what I thinkWhere do they post that graphic?Ah, I see it's from Twitter now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Snowfall products may be the last thing they would use when blending models for a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't see that on the NCEP maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 643 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE 24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! Oh I believed you. I was just referencing the numbers were low given the sref is east and pretty cold for a good number of folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That's not QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Not going to do a map because I don't want to put out a paint product and don't have the time to do something nice, but some numbers. BOS 4" ORH 9" BTV 3.5" PWM 7.5" BDL 8" BDR 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM should come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Not going to do a map because I don't want to put out a paint product and don't have the time to do something nice, but some numbers. BOS 4" ORH 9" BTV 3.5" PWM 7.5" BDL 8" BDR 4" Those numbers look good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM looking more amped up through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM should come west. Heights higher out west, Trough sharper further south then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 juicy and amped as hell through 36... I think it's ticking west that is some serious convection off Carolinas, not seen on 12z/18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM looking more amped up through 36. Good call earlier even though i knew you were kidding kind of............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Heights higher out west, Trough sharper further south then 18zYeah you could see the better ridging out west right an initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 lol, Nam 4mb stronger and juiced, Looks cold at the surface to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm pretty convinced at least the taunton, easton, Norton area is not seeing all rain. A lot of forecasts are still calling for that, but if we dont nudge back west tonight, I think that will change tomorrow. I mean some pieces of guidance are a full out snow bomb here. The meso models like BTV WRF and Hi-Res Nam drill snow right to boston and deep into SE interior Mass 32-33 for duration. IF they hold for 12z tomorrow I am going all in. Red Flag I think for potential is Euro QPF , many can say they think it's wrong with ML track but it's a hellacious front end thump and source region is Gulf/Florida. I picture an Inch at Scott's hood and a foot on blue hill, at least hike up there Scott, they already had a moderate event at the hill. Make the 10 mile drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM is going to be a QPF bomb. Also looks a bit west. This thread should be interesting the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This may be the NAM we know and love. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This may be the NAM we know and love. LOL. Jeezus loaded with qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 1-2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Jeezus loaded with qpf IF the euro has 1.25-1.50 shouldn't the Nam have over 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks like BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks like BM.cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Jeezus loaded with qpf Deep interior gets crushed on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Are we going to hear "convective feedback" issues that dragged this west? Lots of convection early on off Carolinas... I do think the outcome was evident early on at H5... better ridging west / digging east This is gonna be west / not-guilty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That is an omega bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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