moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My official call is 8" (6-10"). If the SREF plays out, you'll be beating me by a wide margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREFs made a pretty good East shift.Yeah...just peeked. Pretty drastic. Spread dropped so I think the really amped members disappeared. The colder east solutions are winning out.Now watch the NAM come in west. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yea, it would be prudent to forget about the sleet concerns south of the pike and only focus on elevation. That sounds like a good idea. Lets do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 sref look a little juicier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Good memories lol... we could have walked to the other side of that front. Family coming up from Philly Tuesday for Thanksgiving. I'm hoping this storm will impress. 2012 broke many Boston weenies. I hope you're right, Coastal... I like to flush out all the potential flies in the ointment (in addition to the obvious that we're up against climo!). Well there are a few flies, Ryan did a good job spelling them out. I just think for you and I, boundary layer numero uno. This starting to remind me of a classic BOS or even immediate SE suburb CF. Of course we have time to resolve that...just preliminary thoughts. You'll still waste a little time flipping to snow or having a 35F snow for awhile, even in areas that don't have marine flow and are lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't understand why he is saying snow growth is so bad. I generally think that gets over emphasized anyway, but it certainly looks decent with this. The issue that I think may hold amounts down in the lower spots is temps at 34 at least until sun goes down Snow growth probably won't be good. All I mean is that I don't think it will be like Dec 13 2007 style confection sugar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Snow growth probably won't be good. All I mean is that I don't think it will be like Dec 13 2007 style confection sugar. The commute disaster of 12/13/07 may be a more apt analogy. Pixie dust accumulated just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My official call is 8" (6-10"). going 6" here.. 5-7" good luck, should be a fun turkey day with snow otg, friends/family and a nice fire outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 sref look a little juicierI don't see that on the NCEP maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The commute disaster of 12/13/07 may be a more apt analogy. Pixie dust accumulated just fine. You could have a real awesome looking wet snow. The kind where the branches droop so low, you have to be careful walking around when you measure so that the branch tips don't go through the hole you cut out in the vinyl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is what we came out with at 6, think it's the general right idea although personally I would have gone a little lower on the coastline, maybe like 1-4" and 2-5". I'll sketch my own thoughts out in a bit for the region as a whole(This is a consensus from two of us, not just me) and post them as well. If you want to read the discussion, http://www.southernconnecticutweather.com/forecasters-discussion/first-call-map-and-discussion-for-wednesday-snowstorm, but most of it is just explaining the models which you guys already know well from having analyzed them to death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 @SipprellWx: I feel very proud to work for the NWS. This is probably one of the best days I've had in a long time. TY everyone for the kudos on the AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Snow growth probably won't be good. All I mean is that I don't think it will be like Dec 13 2007 style confection sugar. Yeah probably won't be a disaster but it's definitely not a "plus"... Anytime you're above -12c from 500 mb to the sfc that's never a great sign especially given the odds for funky dry layers that high up in the SGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I posted some of our thoughts on my blog. http://ryanhanrahan.com/2014/11/24/ugly-timing-for-a-winter-storm/ Very nice write-up and easy to understand. Helped me understand a little more about soundings and particularly snow growth. A few reasons why we are a bit "bearish" on this one... though I think most would be happy with our forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You could have a real awesome looking wet snow. The kind where the branches droop so low, you have to be careful walking around when you measure so that the branch tips don't go through the hole you cut out in the vinyl. Ray's gonna be pelting while I dump aggregates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Well that was an interesting SREF run. Mean SLP is basically over the BM. 850s and 700mb 0c tickle the south coast at peak. 2" 24h qpf is also tickling the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Phil's map looks good overall though probably a tad low in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah probably won't be a disaster but it's definitely not a "plus"... Anytime you're above -12c from 500 mb to the sfc that's never a great sign especially given the odds for funky dry layers that high up in the SGZ. Yeah it won't be anywhere near ideal...I'm just thinking back to similar setups that were a furnace aloft. I can't recall absolute putrid flakes maybe because the lift was so deep? Of course if it goes east, all bets are off. Not that this will be comparable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm pretty convinced at least the taunton, easton, Norton area is not seeing all rain. A lot of forecasts are still calling for that, but if we dont nudge back west tonight, I think that will change tomorrow. I mean some pieces of guidance are a full out snow bomb here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Well that was an interesting SREF run. Mean SLP is basically over the BM. 850s and 700mb 0c tickle the south coast at peak. 2" 24h qpf is also tickling the south coast. If that's the shift, I'd go with a nice jackpot in ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't see that on the NCEP maps. the greater than 8" probs seem to have increased from 15z, Based on amewx model page and higher snow totals for SEMA.. maybe not juicier, colder.. = more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 With ~50 mile shift east, SREF plumes made a real nice jump up for Boston total snow... I believe SREFs are now farthest east of American guidance (until 0z...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nice map by Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREFs look good, but are they in their wheelhouse yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Phil's map looks good overall though probably a tad low in spots I think we will see some 6-10 amounts in Ne Ct to Nw Ri, otherwise looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 for down here nws has there extreme nw areas as 10-14. that seems way to high considering highest precip liquid wise i saw for that area was about an inch and the first part of the storm will happen mid day with temps 32-33. 4-8 sounds like the better call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 the greater than 8" probs seem to have increased from 15z, Based on amewx model page and higher snow totals for SEMA.. maybe not juicier, colder.. = more snow.Yeah...when we say "juicy" here it's usually referencing QPF...or Biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREFs look good, but are they in their wheelhouse yet?About 48 more hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Dec 2012 almost broke me.I remember the lead up to that very wellI will definitely not be sitting in melrose for this event, nite skiing @WaWa doesn't sound bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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