ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 I like the nrly depiction on PFs favorite model, the BTV WRF. 18z RGEM is pretty cold right to the coast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Good stuff all. Haven't had time to post, first this winter. I'm frankly impressed by the relative model consensus we have this far out. EC / GFS / NAM all have a low track between CC to BM. And for all the criticism, GFS has been very consistent for at least 4 cycles since 18Z last night. Compared to frequent chaotic s**tshow last winter, this is a great start for this winter. Pretty stable treatment of the 2 pieces of energy at H5, with slight differences easily just noise. For Boston area, I'm nervous about warm BL. We could have plenty of snowflakes without much accumulation to show for it. Less an issue if we have a NAM type solution. Re: which model lead the way, it's like SkiSheep wrote the Box AFD: Weighed preference upon the 24.15z sref / 24.12z GFS ... and now the 24.12z European model (ecmwf) has finally come aboard...hooray! Now with a consistent storm-track...impacts begin Wednesday morning...increasing into the evening with the height of the storm. Model consensus has the storm winding down Thursday morning. headache ... When you cut and past other's statements try and normalize the font Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Question mets. The NAM Hi-res has a pretty decent deathband over SE PA, looking at the 925mb temps there seems to be a cool pocket right where this precip is, is this a sign of dynamic cooling being picked up on the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Question mets. The NAM Hi-res has a pretty decent deathband over SE PA, looking at the 925mb temps there seems to be a cool pocket right where this precip is, is this a sign of dynamic cooling being picked up on the models? Both probably from lift and wetbulbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 18z RGEM is pretty cold right to the coast as well. Yeah it was actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hard to see with such coarse temperature intervals. If you look on Wunderground and go to the Euro, I'm pretty sure it shows it. Just look for a closed contour at 850 and that should be your tell tale sign of dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah it was actually. Was it RGEM or GGEM that had good ptype performance last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Was it RGEM or GGEM that had good ptype performance last winter? RGEM I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Was it RGEM or GGEM that had good ptype performance last winter? RGEM does pretty well. It had the idea that the 2/16 low wasn't gonna be anything close to the NAM prediction...or even the euro for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 RGEM was very good last winter...we'll see how it does in this one. Right now, the storm is still on the edge of its range though. We'll have a much better idea from the RGEM at 6z and 12z tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Going to S Jersey tomorrow. With a little luck when leave from there Wednesday morning it'll just be rain as we farther south. I may get thru this thing having never seen snow. Possible ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sref are really bullish on snow. Interior SE mass mean is around 8 with some good spread up to 10-12 inches and another cluster at 4-6. Isn't really being skewed by crazy members either. Only 1 has 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Meso's showing that N'rly flow continue to keep my hopes high about 6 miles nw of the coast. In fact temps look pretty uniform from 495 to well inside 128 under high VV's w n winds for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 How are the SREFs at depicting ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I know mentioning TV forecasts is kind of frowned upon, but TV forecasts across the board are LOW. The ones I saw didnt have over 6 inches really anywhere. Most people dont follow weather outside of the TV forecasts. I think its kind of really downplaying the potential significance of this event As long as they don't site warm ground temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What I had seen earlier, most were pretty low...I think they are going to ramp those up tomorrow unless something drastic shows up There is nothing wrong with waiting until tomorrow to punch the panic button for the general public. A November storm with a marginal airmass it seems prudent to wait until the 24hr out mark to start throwing firm snow totals out. Some of the models are depicting a pretty hearty initial Omega hammer and if models ticks a little further E I can envision chaos in the Portland to NYC travel corridor. Also means Thanksgiving day traffic could be significantly heavier. : ( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I posted some of our thoughts on my blog. http://ryanhanrahan.com/2014/11/24/ugly-timing-for-a-winter-storm/ A few reasons why we are a bit "bearish" on this one... though I think most would be happy with our forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Anyone know what drives the BOX experimental town by town snowfall forecast? It has me from 5 to 17"...lol Getting used to the new products/layout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The highest amounts are not going to be east of h7 lowthis seems reasonable and pretty much what I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I posted some of our thoughts on my blog. http://ryanhanrahan.com/2014/11/24/ugly-timing-for-a-winter-storm/ A few reasons why we are a bit "bearish" on this one... though I think most would be happy with our forecast. Explained well...GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I posted some of our thoughts on my blog. http://ryanhanrahan.com/2014/11/24/ugly-timing-for-a-winter-storm/ A few reasons why we are a bit "bearish" on this one... though I think most would be happy with our forecast. You rock, nice write up for us scientifically challenged. Looks spot on to what I'm expecting up here. A nice 6" snowfall for many in W MA with a few higher lollis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 this seems reasonable and pretty much what I think I'll take it. I'm in that deep purple tongue of 12 to 15 in western CT. Now let's see what really happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I posted some of our thoughts on my blog. http://ryanhanrahan.com/2014/11/24/ugly-timing-for-a-winter-storm/ A few reasons why we are a bit "bearish" on this one... though I think most would be happy with our forecast. I also like that you and Scott try to keep weenies expectations in check. This will still be pretty damn impressive for a Nov system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is such a hard forecast for Boston and NYC. A month from now it's kind of a slam dunk big snow but methinks we're a tad too early at least in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I posted some of our thoughts on my blog. http://ryanhanrahan.com/2014/11/24/ugly-timing-for-a-winter-storm/ A few reasons why we are a bit "bearish" on this one... though I think most would be happy with our forecast. this seems reasonable and pretty much what I think 1"-3" and 2"-3" You guys trying to get me to jump off the Newport Bridge? I'd be happy with that in November for sure as Will said but when people just North, NW and worst of all straight West of me are getting 8"+ I'm not even close to being happy. All of these maps look like the "Screw RI" maps. Mark Searles just put 2"-5" so he isn't helping. Snow Growth is of course my main concert with these early and late season events, not the R/S line. It I say will be on or SE of the PVD / BOS line. If I don't get 6" it will be due to other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I posted some of our thoughts on my blog. http://ryanhanrahan.com/2014/11/24/ugly-timing-for-a-winter-storm/ A few reasons why we are a bit "bearish" on this one... though I think most would be happy with our forecast. Really well done -- you put a lot of thought and work into your analysis and make it easy for weather novices to understand. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is such a hard forecast for Boston and NYC. A month from now it's kind of a slam dunk big snow but methinks we're a tad too early at least in Boston. I feel like NYC would have a much easier time than BOS to get bigger snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is such a hard forecast for Boston and NYC. A month from now it's kind of a slam dunk big snow but methinks we're a tad too early at least in Boston. A 50mi shift E and a lot of people will be wtf'ing the forecasters. It kind of sucks for everyone that's it's coming on a huge travel day. That's actually a huge commercial delivery day too. Lots of trucks on the streets. Gonna' be wild if it thumps snow to the coast, even just a few quick inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I feel like NYC would have a much easier time than BOS to get bigger snows. I agree. They are not so exposed and of course longitude in this case should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 I agree. They are not so exposed and of course longitude in this case should help. Ironically they got mostly slop with mixing issues in Vet Day '87 while BOS had over 9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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