TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This is a tough forecast down here. If that coastal front sets up north south, interior SE mass could be on the west side. If that occurred, could be some pretty heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BOX is pretty underwhelming with the forecast in GC. I guess to moderates equal 8-10 (their map). Better than bare ground though. Wednesday Snow. Moderate snow accumulation. Much colder. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. Wednesday Night Snow likely. Additional moderate snow accumulation possible. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Someone please nail Eeyore's tail back to his ass, so he can experience real pain and feel alive again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This is a tough forecast down here. If that coastal front sets up north south, interior SE mass could be on the west side. If that occurred, could be some pretty heavy snow I want to be there when you crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 People have to not get hung up on word for word zone forecast. The zones are fairly straight forward, that's why I like that old school forecast...the point and clicks are the ones that you can't take word-for-word. You end up with those snow and rain before 11am, snow after 11am, snow and sleet between 1pm-2pm, snow from 2pm-3pm, sleet from 3pm-5pm, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 IP is again the ongoing question. I'm not ruling myself out of a few pings on the EC. In the end, I suspect GC will make up for lesser qpf with better snow. One thing I've seen since moving out here is that we are often the last in the state to the ping fest. I guess 10mi from VT helps. The NW corner tuck ftw. You will do better than the lower els. obviously. This storm has looked like a decent event for us for days. 6-10" for you and the hills, 4-7" down here is my call as things stand. Quick mover, taint possibilities, outside of deform bands = go conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ok to use Maue tweeted it out. EPS probability of greater than 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Someone please nail Eeyore's tail back to his ass, so he can experience real pain and feel alive again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm trying to think of how many decent sized airports are going to be affected...on the busiest travel day of the year. Yeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah 8-10" of snow is pretty underwhelming on 11/26 Yeah, if my forecast verifies out here it may be the most snow I've ever seen in November. At least that I can recall between much time spent on the CP and now here. I'm still going with the under on 6-8" here but nothing to scoff at for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm going to ride the Albany map. Because it's better. Hopefully the ground will cool well Tuesday night. We don't want anything to melt before the December torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah, if my forecast verifies out here it may be the most snow I've ever seen in November. At least that I can recall between much time spent on the CP and now here. I'm still going with the under on 6-8" here but nothing to scoff at for sure. How did you do in 1989? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah 8-10" of snow is pretty underwhelming on 11/26 You misinterpreted my comment. I said the 8-10 on the map was more impressive than the two moderates. Dude I'll swap with you in a heartbeat, lol. What's underwhelming about it? What were you looking for? I think their snowfall works something like this...Light is 1-3, moderate is 4-7" and heavy is 8"+. Too bad you only get two periods of 4-7" Thanks--you understood my comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BOX is pretty underwhelming with the forecast in GC. I guess to moderates equal 8-10 (their map). Better than bare ground though. Wednesday Snow. Moderate snow accumulation. Much colder. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. Wednesday Night Snow likely. Additional moderate snow accumulation possible. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. I'm going to ride the Albany map. Because it's better. Hopefully the ground will cool well Tuesday night. We don't want anything to melt before the December torch. OMG man. This must be an act. You're just playing the anti-DIT. With the past few and current runs, I'd be surprised it you didn't get > 6". It's not even DEC yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think ginx to orh to me are locked in for good snowfall. However, its areas of cape ann down to bos and south shore that are interesting/tough to call. Climo leans wet in this scenario. We'll see how modeling hones in pre storm. There's a pretty large gradient at play here. I lean big time on heaviest amounts north of the pike. That mid level warm punch of air may be potent. Worst case scenario is pelting up to the NH border imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Chris/MPM might make out the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah 8-10" of snow is pretty underwhelming on 11/26 lol. Right. So meh. Funny comments are well, funny. Complaining about whatever snow people get this week in SNE is pretty lol-worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think ginx to orh to me are locked in for good snowfall. However, its areas of cape ann down to bos and south shore that are interesting/tough to call. Climo leans wet in this scenario. We'll see how modeling hones in pre storm. There's a pretty large gradient at play here. I lean big time on heaviest amounts north of the pike. That mid level warm punch of air may be potent. Worst case scenario is pelting up to the NH border imho. The highest amounts are not going to be east of h7 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How did you do in 1989? Jesus, my memory banks are fragile dude, that will take time. I was living up at Merrimack where Jay is now and I don't recall anything too significant as far as early season events. Those were some lean snow years in NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This made me chuckle. Does this mean we might not know whats going to happen until we're 6 hours into the storm? OVERVIEW...INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACKAROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TORESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAYNOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How did you do in 1989? I vaguely remember a foot of snow in Marblehead, give or take quite a bit for bad memory. Pretty clearly remember it being a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Dr. Greg Postel ??? Just had 12-18" for C. Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Complaining about whatever snow people get this week in SNE is pretty lol-worth. Reminds me of Coastalwx's comments the other day when models were trending west and he said if any interior folks complain about getting 5" instead of the forecast 7-12" or something, while the coastal plain rains, they deserve to get biatch slapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm surprised by this after Oct. 2011 QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEEDIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLDSURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THEFIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Reminds me of Coastalwx's comments the other day when models were trending west and he said if any interior folks complain about getting 5" instead of the forecast 7-12" or something, while the coastal plain rains, they deserve to get biatch slapped. Cripes--I wasn't complaining; I'm psyched. My post was that I thought there was a disconnect between the zfp and the map. As you already pointed out, the two 'moderates' equal the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Dr. Greg Postel ??? Just had 12-18" for C. Mass Was he drinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Cripes--I wasn't complaining; I'm psyched. My post was that I thought there was a disconnect between the zfp and the map. As you already pointed out, the two 'moderates' equal the map. Wasn't directed at you...more at those that may complain during the event because of some meso-scale subsidence or something while others are raining and some are smoking cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Was he drinking? I didn't ask, but when you have a hot chick beside you, you always go bigger.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wasn't directed at you...more at those that may complain during the event because of some meso-scale subsidence or something while others are raining and some are smoking cirrus. You get November snow, but for people down here to be disappointed in getting 6-10....that just flat out dumbfounds me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I like the nrly depiction on PFs favorite model, the BTV WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Good stuff all. Haven't had time to post, first this winter. I'm frankly impressed by the relative model consensus we have this far out. EC / GFS / NAM all have a low track between CC to BM. And for all the criticism, GFS has been very consistent for at least 4 cycles since 18Z last night. Compared to frequent chaotic s**tshow last winter, this is a great start for this winter. Pretty stable treatment of the 2 pieces of energy at H5, with slight differences easily just noise. For Boston area, I'm nervous about warm BL. We could have plenty of snowflakes without much accumulation to show for it. Less an issue if we have a NAM type solution. Re: which model lead the way, it's like SkiSheep wrote the Box AFD: Weighed preference upon the 24.15z sref / 24.12z GFS ... and now the 24.12z European model (ecmwf) has finally come aboard...hooray! Now with a consistent storm-track...impacts begin Wednesday morning...increasing into the evening with the height of the storm. Model consensus has the storm winding down Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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