SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The black and white RGEM looks like it may go close to or a hair SE of the BM. Very close to it. https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif The RGEM was my bread and butter for ptype last winter, I literally started using it for every storm to figure out ptypes and changeover times, it was right almost every event and its done well so far this year on Midwest events...it has very bad 06 and 18z runs, on the level that the US models used to have years ago so I don't use those often but I will probably rely on it heavily starting 12Z tomorrow for NYC/PHL/BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Basically your favorite. It will lead to mesoscale areas of vertical and downward motion. They won't be stationary but will favor setting up in the same pattern. So localized maxes or mins in QPF are possible. The pressure perturbations they produce can also lead to enhancing local wind fields too. Especially in the "warm" sector this could lead to a brief mixed layer enough to bring down some of the LLJ. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How could Steve forget the most famous gravity wave of all? Jan 1994. Google it. Aren't you driving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The RGEM was my bread and butter for ptype last winter, I literally started using it for every storm to figure out ptypes and changeover times, it was right almost every event and its done well so far this year on Midwest events...it has very bad 06 and 18z runs, on the level that the US models used to have years ago so I don't use those often but I will probably rely on it heavily starting 12Z tomorrow for NYC/PHL/BOS It's a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Aren't you driving?Boston traffic equals littleDriving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How could Steve forget the most famous gravity wave of all? Jan 1994. Google it. LOl yep, hey GFS man o man. I noticed Box changed their linked map again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Aren't you driving? I think I hear a faint ambulance siren emanating from the direction of rt 93... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Boston traffic equals little Driving. Haha, have you really been posting like a fiend and driving around BOS at the same time? It must be winter, right? I can't say I've never checked a model while driving somewhere though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Haha, have you really been posting like a fiend and driving around BOS at the same time? It must be winter, right? I can't say I've never checked a model while driving somewhere though quick hitting one sentence responses. Anyways how was the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 quick hitting one sentence responses. Anyways how was the 18z GFS? Warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Warm. tepid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Did it tick SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 quick hitting one sentence responses. Anyways how was the 18z GFS? A toaster bath up here, which is usually good for you. Looked very similar though to everything we've been seeing lately. No idea on your local area nuances though, not my climo and not going to venture a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 tepid I'll find you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Warm. Looked similar to 12z to me, just toned down a bit....noise. GFS loves s ORH co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS again is HFD ORH NW RI triangle Bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Note the inverted trough both at the sfc and mid-levels on the GFS now too...if that SE type track occurs, don't be surprised to see good weenie snows on Thanksgiving morning for much of eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah I'm seeing calls of it ending before midnite. Don't think thAts the case. May linger central areas till daybreak and e areas into the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS again is HFD ORH NW RI triangle Bullseye of pellets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It did come a tic west, but...just se of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 of pellets?No matter how hard you try or wish,, your area is not the best place to be for this storm .. Neither is mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS again is HFD ORH NW RI triangle Bullseye IP is again the ongoing question. I'm not ruling myself out of a few pings on the EC. In the end, I suspect GC will make up for lesser qpf with better snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 kinda meh 18Z runs...especially with the 2 GFS brothers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS looked a little flatter and a tiny bit SE, but a bit warmer aloft. Probably noise and related to VVS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah I'm seeing calls of it ending before midnite. Don't think thAts the case. May linger central areas till daybreak and e areas into the morning It really is a fast exit (and arrival) on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS looked a little flatter and a tiny bit SE, but a bit warmer aloft. Probably noise and related to VVS.H7 never really closes off and the kicker seems a hair stronger. But yeah....mostly just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BOX is pretty underwhelming with the forecast in GC. I guess to moderates equal 8-10 (their map). Better than bare ground though. Wednesday Snow. Moderate snow accumulation. Much colder. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. Wednesday Night Snow likely. Additional moderate snow accumulation possible. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 BOX is pretty underwhelming with the forecast in GC. I guess to moderates equal 8-10 (their map). Better than bare ground though. Wednesday Snow. Moderate snow accumulation. Much colder. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. Wednesday Night Snow likely. Additional moderate snow accumulation possible. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Yeah 8-10" of snow is pretty underwhelming on 11/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 People have to not get hung up on word for word zone forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BOX is pretty underwhelming with the forecast in GC. I guess to moderates equal 8-10 (their map). Better than bare ground though. Wednesday Snow. Moderate snow accumulation. Much colder. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. Wednesday Night Snow likely. Additional moderate snow accumulation possible. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Dude I'll swap with you in a heartbeat, lol. What's underwhelming about it? What were you looking for? I think their snowfall works something like this...Light is 1-3, moderate is 4-7" and heavy is 8"+. Too bad you only get two periods of 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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