40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 yes Ok. Fair enough. We disagree. .75"-1" imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This bickering has been canceled due to lack of interest. Let us please move on to focus on tiny trends we can glean in the 18z GFS, also known as the most important run of our lives. Thank you. I'm not bickering with him. I asked him a question and he answered it. Moving along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Reading whatever disco that is... regarding lowering amounts due to temps etc and daytime... b.s. and won't matter if it snows heavy enough. Glad we got that cleared up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That's a 4-6 stripe not a 2-4 stripe. Well not on the map posted on the previous page...that's 2-4" in southern Tolland which is what he was referring to. Although this is the map I see currently on BOX's site...is this the map from this AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I feel like Upton is out to lunch on this. 4-6" (really 3-7" in the point and click) forecast 36 hours out is enough to warrant a WSW for the shoreline...but they've left it out. It's almost like they couldn't decide whether to be bullish or conservative so tried to do both. Given the travel day and all, if you go watch and upgrade to an advisory later it doesn't really hurt and you get the word out much earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm not bickering with him. I asked him a question and he answered it. Moving along. exactly, hey you are in a great spot it seems, I also think the Euro 7 h is wrong, Too far NW, the dry slot will probably kiss ACK and FYI it's Ens are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm not bickering with him. I asked him a question and he answered it. Moving along. We can only bicker about whether or not this qualifies as bickering in the banter thread. You can't fight in here; this is the war room. Do you know that I'm going to be driving in this business? Yes! Think on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Given the travel day and all, if you go watch and upgrade to an advisory later it doesn't really hurt and you get the word out much earlier. I agree...if they're gonna put out a forecast for 4-6"...they should have a watch as they can always opt to just go to an advisory if the bullish call doesn't work out. Just feel like they're usually a bit more consistent between their products. Maybe they are planning to upgrade in their next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A post on UAlbany map list from Anton Simon... looks like there might be some gravity wave mischief with this storm. This could cause some serious issues with everyone's QPF forecasts depending on where the waves set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well not on the map posted on the previous page...that's 2-4" in southern Tolland which is what he was referring to. Although this is the map I see currently on BOX's site...is this the map from this AM? No, that's not the same as this morning. They must have just updated. Bring back the time stamps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I agree...if they're gonna put out a forecast for 4-6"...they should have a watch as they can always opt to just go to an advisory if the bullish call doesn't work out. Just feel like they're usually a bit more consistent between their products. Maybe they are planning to upgrade in their next update. I like the watches today, because then that can make a decision for people to leave tomorrow if they can. If you wait until tomorrow it may be too late for people to change plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 exactly, hey you are in a great spot it seems, I also think the Euro 7 h is wrong, Too far NW, the dry slot will probably kiss ACK and FYI it's Ens are cold. Well, that is another story. You took the QPF from the model, so I assumed that we were taking the solution verbatim. If that verified as is, I do not think Boston would see 1.5" QPF....get the H7 over se MA, diff ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm not bickering with him. I asked him a question and he answered it. Moving along. Still going with your first call of 6-10"? I would go for a general 6-10" swath from Reading-Waltham-Natick-Uxbridge points N&W. 3-6" SE into Cambridge into interior SEMA. 1-3" SE of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah Mike we were talking about that earlier. That's pretty cool looking. Surprised NAM if all models does not have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A post on UAlbany map list from Anton Simon... looks like there might be some gravity wave mischief with this storm. This could cause some serious issues with everyone's QPF forecasts depending on where the waves set up. Sweet that would be great , this does have an OCT 11 feel to it which scares me in my hood to be wet instead of white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 No, that's not the same as this morning. They must have just updated. Bring back the time stamps. Well that clears it up then...looks much more consistent with Upton then. Still think Upton may be a bit too bullish with 4-6" all the way to the shoreline...but it's not out of the question if things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Still going with your first call of 6-10"? I would go for a general 6-10" swath from Reading-Waltham-Natick-Uxbridge points N&W. 3-6" SE into Cambridge into interior SEMA. 1-3" SE of there. Yea, my thoughts exactly. That is what I posted on FB. lolls up to a 1' in the Berkshires, ORH hills and higher terrain of s NH/VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah Mike we were talking about that earlier. That's pretty cool looking. Surprised NAM if all models does not have it. Could you explain the implications of that "gravity wave" phenomenon? I'm not very privy to that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Could you explain the implications of that "gravity wave" phenomenon? I'm not very privy to that... I think it messes with distributions of QPF. It enhances precip for some areas, while taking away from others? I think. I believe Jan. 22, 2005 had a gravity wave centered in central Mass that screwed with their totals. Some places out there only got 10-14", while areas further E like here were closer to 25-30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ray I'm on the road. Maybe someone else can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I've seen (and felt) gravity waves on radar, but had not seen evidence of them on model output before (probably did not know where to look). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 huge qpf dumps while either side of the waves get slotted, almost like hurricane bands, either you are in them or not but they are progressive so everyone gets a share of them and also they bring big winds with them, like continuous gust fronts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I agree...if they're gonna put out a forecast for 4-6"...they should have a watch as they can always opt to just go to an advisory if the bullish call doesn't work out. Just feel like they're usually a bit more consistent between their products. Maybe they are planning to upgrade in their next update. In their defense, 4-6 wouldn't verify the winter storm warning. The coast will probably get a winter weather advisory tomorrow unless things change overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think it messes with distributions of QPF. It enhances precip for some areas, while taking away from others? I think. I believe Jan. 22, 2005 had a gravity wave centered in central Mass that screwed with their totals. Some places out there only got 10-14", while areas further E like here were closer to 25-30". That is my inclination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That is my inclination. Here's an excerpt from Google Books: http://books.google.com/books?id=eeM_AAAAQBAJ&pg=PA193&lpg=PA193&dq=gravity+wave+and+snowstorm&source=bl&ots=5StJD9eKex&sig=6lzuCFbaBrfqBdKywJ90ys1phzo&hl=en&sa=X&ei=NalzVL_fJ8qgNquHhMgI&ved=0CCYQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=gravity%20wave%20and%20snowstorm&f=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 3-6" I'll take it for 11/26-27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 2013/2014 had several storms where gravity waves were seen and heard. The most powerful one I ever felt was the Blizz 2013 one where insane 6 per hour rates and winds way above anything I had felt roared through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 18z GFS continues the toaster bath up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That is my inclination. Basically your favorite. It will lead to mesoscale areas of vertical and downward motion. They won't be stationary but will favor setting up in the same pattern. So localized maxes or mins in QPF are possible. The pressure perturbations they produce can also lead to enhancing local wind fields too. Especially in the "warm" sector this could lead to a brief mixed layer enough to bring down some of the LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How could Steve forget the most famous gravity wave of all? Jan 1994. Google it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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