Sn0waddict Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised if the front end snows overperform here in sw ct. We tend to do very well on the initial stuff. Plus, the gradient is really tight 8n fairfield county. It goes from virtually nada at BDR to 8" for DXR. Any small ticks makes a big difference within the county. Not sure about Nada, upton is going 4-6 in this area which could happen if we keep trending a little more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised if the front end snows overperform here in sw ct. We tend to do very well on the initial stuff. Plus, the gradient is really tight 8n fairfield county. It goes from virtually nada at BDR to 8" for DXR. Any small ticks makes a big difference within the county. I could see maybe for those with elevation...but gonna be a lot of wet for the valleys and shoreline imo at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 1.41 * .1/3 = .96, even the Euro is 1.2, show me a link to verification scores that say cut the Nam by 1/3 Every model is just a tool. Give personal credence to model of choice. Countless times model x is correct, model y sometimes and model z seldom. A smart choice before an event is not to declare absolutes. It's called TOOL syndrome. Times like these use them all, trends in greater QPF in each model might suggest the models are trending stronger. No model will ever get it absolutely exactly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I also had Euro wrong for Bos it was 1.5 plus also. Do we cut that by 1/3rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not sure about Nada, upton is going 4-6 in this area which could happen if we keep trending a little more east.Upton has BDR with 1" slop, based on their snowfall map.Edit: they updated totals. Ok they have increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sleet factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. Yep for ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Upton has BDR with 1" slop, based on their snowfall map. That was on the map they issued this morning, they upped the totals since then. Much less dramatic with the cutoff by the water. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Upton has BDR with 1" slop, based on their snowfall map. which map? the one I just posted has 4-6"...which is also reflected in the point and click forecast. looking at the BOX and OKX maps side by side...doesn't seem like there was much coordination going on for the afternoon forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks conservative compared to okx...which has 6-8" for the north half of it's CT zones, and 4-6" along the shoreline. Being conservative myself...I'm not sold on 4-6" totals all the way to the shoreline...it may be a nailbiter. coordination fTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Its actually 6-8 but do You live there? No, but I thought we were all supposed to mention what tolland was going to get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 EASTERN CANADA.. MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE WITH SYSTEM FROM ERN SEABORD MOVING TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA, WHERE GEM-GLB SHIFT SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER W, WHERE IT WAS CONSTANTLY WAY FURTHER E. ECMWF DOES A SOUTHEASTERN SHIFT, THEN BOTH MODELS NOT FAR FROM EACH OTHER. UKMET SHIFT FURTHER N, AND NOW IS THE NRN MOST. GFS QUITE CONSISTANT BTWN GEM-GLB AND ECMWF, BUT REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE. THEN GEM-GLB IS GOING IN RIGHT DIRECTION IN THIS RUN, BUT WE LIKE EVEN MORE NWD ADJUSTMENT. THEN MIDDLE OF THE ROAD BTWN ECMWF/GEM-GLB IS SUGGESTED, AND MEANS THE GFS TRACK, BUT WITH SLOWER TREND THAN THE GFS. HENCE WE EXPECT NRN AND WRN EDGE OF PCPN FARTHER IN EACH DIRECTION. HENCE A GENERAL SHIFT OF GEM-GLB QPF PATTERN TO THE NNW IS SUGGESTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 which map? the one I just posted has 4-6"...which is also reflected in the point and click forecast. looking at the BOX and OKX maps side by side...doesn't seem like there was much coordination going on for the afternoon forecasts. Yea their new map is less dramatic with the gradient. Morning Map was a cluster in Fairfield county. Good trend then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The black and white RGEM looks like it may go close to or a hair SE of the BM. Very close to it. https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 time of day, time of year,, warm air intrusion,model uncertainty so BOX decided to play it safe. Will likely verify for some but burn for others that's the way it usually works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think BOS was too conservative for southern Tolland county (2-4") OKX may be too aggressive though (4-8 for northern New London). Somewhere in between is my guess. Going with 2-4" here (Lyme CT) but see potential for upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm heading into heavy snow. We're leaving tomorrow night at 9. We should get to Princeton to discuss the last euro run before 3am. Sleep till mid morning and hopefully wake up to a howling snowstorm over a beautiful rural abode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I also had Euro wrong for Bos it was 1.5 plus also. Do we cut that by 1/3rd?Just use your head instead of regurgitating model QPF. Do you really think an H7 track over the berks will yield 1.50" of qpf at KBOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Reading whatever disco that is... regarding lowering amounts due to temps etc and daytime... b.s. and won't matter if it snows heavy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm heading into heavy snow. We're leaving tomorrow night at 9. We should get to Princeton to discuss the last euro run before 3am. Sleep till mid morning and hopefully wake up to a howling snowstorm over a beautiful rural abode. Your 2005 forecaster awaits you WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 1? FIVE PLUS TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS WHERE 10 INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 1000 FT (POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 I stand corrected , gFS is not far behind, what about the Euro? do you have the 48 hr numbers, also that means it nails .75 prediction at 60 hrs, so you only cut it by 1/3 rd when its 1.5 and greater??? You wouldn't stop slicing NAM qpf at 60 hours until it got down to around 0.25"..the NAM bias line is the pinkish line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Just use your head instead of regurgitating model QPF. Do you really think an H7 track over the berks will yield 1.50" of qpf at KBOS? This bickering has been canceled due to lack of interest. Let us please move on to focus on tiny trends we can glean in the 18z GFS, also known as the most important run of our lives. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Just use your head instead of regurgitating model QPF. Do you really think an H7 track over the berks will yield 1.50" of qpf at KBOS? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A tale of 2 forecasts. Hmmm, which one do you want to come to fruition if you live in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I feel like Upton is out to lunch on this. 4-6" (really 3-7" in the point and click) forecast 36 hours out is enough to warrant a WSW for the shoreline...but they've left it out. It's almost like they couldn't decide whether to be bullish or conservative so tried to do both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A tale of 2 forecasts. Hmmm, which one do you want to come to fruition if you live in CT? Not living there allows me to see very little difference here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That's a 4-6 stripe not a 2-4 stripe. I think BOS was too conservative for southern Tolland county (2-4") OKX may be too aggressive though (4-8 for northern New London). Somewhere in between is my guess. Going with 2-4" here (Lyme CT) but see potential for upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That's a 4-6 stripe not a 2-4 stripe. I think BOS was too conservative for southern Tolland county (2-4") OKX may be too aggressive though (4-8 for northern New London). Somewhere in between is my guess. Going with 2-4" here (Lyme CT) but see potential for upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A tale of 2 forecasts. Hmmm, which one do you want to come to fruition if you live in CT? Ryan appears to be team BOS...StormTeam 8 is team Upton. Average them out and I think most will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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