CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 DC snow, rain ORH. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 OK we can lock that run in right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 DC snow, rain ORH. LOL. Looks like it might be IP/ZR for ORH..it stays at freezing at the sfc. Not that any of this matters at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 984mb just off of PSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 There's my ice storm. I'd take that in a heartbeat..Cold turkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro looks great 4 days to go though and alot can and will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Looks like it might be IP/ZR for ORH..it stays at freezing at the sfc. Not that any of this matters at this stage. I know..I was joking with that depiction given the look. Interesting anyways, but still in model la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 There's my ice storm. I'd take that in a heartbeat..Cold turkey No cooking and no football on Thanksgiving with no power. You may be the only one sick enough on here to enjoy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 I know..I was joking with that depiction given the look. Interesting anyways, but still in model la la land. I actually kind of like seeing the Euro amped up right now...because there's way more room for this to move east than it does to trend west. I suppose there's always a chance that you get the 100% perfect phase and it tries to run up the CT valley...but almost all the rest of the possibilities in the envelope of solutions are east...so I'm more worried about keeping it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 No cooking and no football on Thanksgiving with no power. You may be the only one sick enough on here to enjoy that. LOL..it would get us out of the stress of hosting it.. You think this has potential to cut inland or is farther east favored? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'm driving to Princeton, NJ Wednesday which verbatim gets more snow vs eastern New England on the euro...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I actually kind of like seeing the Euro amped up right now...because there's way more room for this to move east than it does to trend west. I suppose there's always a chance that you get the 100% perfect phase and it tries to run up the CT valley...but almost all the rest of the possibilities in the envelope of solutions are east...so I'm more worried about keeping it close. I mean I can see why it would track close, but agree about this being perhaps a classic day 4.5-5 climax west only to tickle east a bit. There actually is a weenie high that builds quickly north of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Also, this thing tucks some cold air close to the center. It's not exactly a warm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Travel day 1971 featured a similar event that buried western New England and Albany and gave good snow to BDL and ORH before the changeover. Difference was antecedent was way colder in 1971. I remember as a 3rd year student going to clinic Wednesday morning with temperatures around 20. Going outside after clinic with an immediate feel of marine taint and temps in the upper 30s I knew I was cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That would be phenomenal...man hour 120 is what dreams are made. 981mb between BOS and PWM is what pony-O's like. Even a little QPF max over my head. Dammit. Shouldn't have looked at that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Travel day 1971 featured a similar event that buried western New England and Albany and gave good snow to BDL and ORH before the changeover. Difference was antecedent was way colder in 1971. I remember as a 3rd year student going to clinic Wednesday morning with temperatures around 20. Going outside after clinic with an immediate feel of marine taint and temps in the upper 30s I knew I was cooked. The '71 storm was a more of a miller B (sort of a hybrid Miller B )...quite a different evolution to this one...but yeah, it was a big hit for interior SNE back through E NY State where they jackpotted with a deformation band. ALmost had similar looking jackpot to the Christmas 2002 storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 06-12z Thursday the Euro is impressive from ORH to LEW. Big time forcing from the mid levels. Not surprising to see it chucking over 1+ QPF in that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I actually kind of like seeing the Euro amped up right now...because there's way more room for this to move east than it does to trend west. I suppose there's always a chance that you get the 100% perfect phase and it tries to run up the CT valley...but almost all the rest of the possibilities in the envelope of solutions are east...so I'm more worried about keeping it close. I agree, I would have seen a shift east this run as a greater cause for concern. Somewhere between the euro bomb and GFS scraper seems reasonable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 06-12z Thursday the Euro is impressive from ORH to LEW. Big time forcing from the mid levels. Not surprising to see it chucking over 1+ QPF in that time period. Looks warm at 700mb...what do you think would fall in those 6 hours from ORH to LEW verbatim? IP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That one run means little deterministically; however we do know that a storm is now likely. Precip type, details TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 heavy snow to heavy ice/sleet in Gray. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Looks warm at 700mb...what do you think would fall in those 6 hours from ORH to LEW verbatim? IP? Verbatim 850 is quite warm east of the higher terrain (ORH hills to the foothills of ME), but 925 it pretty well below freezing until you reach the coast. So I would guess IP would dominate. However, that's pretty rare to see widespread IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 the euro is amp-happy at this time range. i think most people get a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The '71 storm was a more of a miller B (sort of a hybrid Miller B )...quite a different evolution to this one...but yeah, it was a big hit for interior SNE back through E NY State where they jackpotted with a deformation band. ALmost had similar looking jackpot to the Christmas 2002 storm: That event must be the largest NOV for ALB area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Verbatim 850 is quite warm east of the higher terrain (ORH hills to the foothills of ME), but 925 it pretty well below freezing until you reach the coast. So I would guess IP would dominate. However, that's pretty rare to see widespread IP. Valentines Day (2007) on Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Verbatim 850 is quite warm east of the higher terrain (ORH hills to the foothills of ME), but 925 it pretty well below freezing until you reach the coast. So I would guess IP would dominate. However, that's pretty rare to see widespread IP. That's what I thought, which is why I was wondering. Of course, its just the euro verbatim, but certainly seems likely to be at least some impact at this point. 11 1/2 hours till 00z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 the euro is amp-happy at this time range. i think most people get a good hit The 00z EURO is probably pretty close to what we may see. GC to Dendrite to interior ME ccb, but a good hit everywhere, save for CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 I agree, I would have seen a shift east this run as a greater cause for concern. Somewhere between the euro bomb and GFS scraper seems reasonable... It's hard to really make much of a forecast yet given the spread this potential has. I think we're definitely trending toward something impactful...it's easy to get concerned or elated about the verbatim output of each run, but in reality, this will verify different than any of the runs we look at. There's a ton of variables including how much the high pressure builds north of Maine..how much the trough phases with the midwest shortwave, how much the initial vortmax digs, how fast it is, how the jet streaks are oriented. There's more ways for this to go east than west because we have a progressive flow with limited blocking downstream...however, if we perfectly phase everything quick enough, then we could drive this into BAF or ALB...but I think that scenario is a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Valentines Day (2007) on Thanksgiving. Literally the only storm that comes to mind when I think widespread IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 A miller A type ice or Sleet event in November? I feel like it's rain or snow with this one. Maybe a small transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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