dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 ?? you see something different? They took it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We toss it with the SREFs. We can still dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 winter storm watches are up for eastern Pennsylvania including Philadelphia and Trenton NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The cut the 1/3 rd stuff with the NAM is kind of a passed on folklore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM has a pretty sharp precip gradient on the NW side compared to the other models. Is this part of its bias? Edit: Because I've noticed in many events it likes to really cut down on amounts around the fringes especially on the NW side of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 A further SE solution like the NAM also hangs back a nice inverted trough as the mid-levels really cool down...there could be weenie snows on Thanksgiving morning over eastern areas if that happened (kind of a mini version of what happened on 12/20/08) Something that wouldhave to be watched if we got a solution closer to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 image.jpg Like, #letitsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 image.jpg It's a Maine winter in the early going this season. BOX still hasn't updated. Why do they stick to the schedule given the significant impact this storm will have? Perhaps because 1) they're not going to change it at the drop of a hat, and 2) the storm's not for another 36 hours and 3) that's a weenie map. I think the general public put in their address to the p/c and say "oh, it's going to snow". NAM has a pretty sharp precip gradient on the NW side compared to the other models. Is this part of its bias? Edit: Because I've noticed in many events it likes to really cut down on amounts around the fringes especially on the NW side of the precip shield. Oh no. Say it isn't so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A further SE solution like the NAM also hangs back a nice inverted trough as the mid-levels really cool down...there could be weenie snows on Thanksgiving morning over eastern areas if that happened (kind of a mini version of what happened on 12/20/08) Something that wouldhave to be watched if we got a solution closer to that. interesting that 08 showed up on a lot of analogs last week and this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The cut the 1/3 rd stuff with the NAM is kind of a passed on folklore. Ok. You wait on that 1.5" of qpf at Boston. Let me know how that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Look at 700mb on euro. That's pelt pretty far north for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ok. You wait on that 1.5" of qpf at Boston. Let me know how that works. I will note this: the point and click for downtown Boston has shifted favorably: Tuesday Night A chance of rain, mainly after 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Rain before 3pm, then snow. High near 39. Northwest wind 6 to 13 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Night Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 9pm. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%. That's a more snow-heavy look than what we saw earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The NAM knows just what a weenie likes to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM please. Scott/Will etc.... is there really any play here for the SE areas or is this just too early and too "big" of a storm for snow down to the coast? I haven't paid much attention but assume this is the more typical paste job for areas in interior SE NE like the usual Easton/Mansfield/Foxboro to Randolph type belt and N&W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Any thoughts on start time for this whole mess? Seems like everything keeps trending earlier. Yesterday it looked like things didn't get underway until afternoon. Today we seem to have a pretty good consensus that precip could be into southern CT by daybreak and making it up to the Pike by 8-9am. I feel like 5-9am start from south to north would cover it right now...any chance that continues to trend even earlier and really threaten the morning commute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The NAM knows just what a weenie likes to see. We don't bet on boxers with terrible records, even if they promise a huge payout when they win because the odds are stacked against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ok. You wait on that 1.5" of qpf at Boston. Let me know how that works. 1.41 * .1/3 = .96, even the Euro is 1.2, show me a link to verification scores that say cut the Nam by 1/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 1.41 * .1/3 = .96, even the Euro is 1.2, show me a link to verification scores that say cut the Nam by 1/3 Ray's claim has got some science behind it...look at the NAM bias when it predicts 1.5" of qpf at 60 hours out...the bias is 1.5 (or even slighter higher) which means the forecast to observation ratio is 1.5...so slice by 1/3 to get to reality: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Scott/Will etc.... is there really any play here for the SE areas or is this just too early and too "big" of a storm for snow down to the coast? I haven't paid much attention but assume this is the more typical paste job for areas in interior SE NE like the usual Easton/Mansfield/Foxboro to Randolph type belt and N&W? I don't hold out hope for your area. The NAM perhaps flips you at the end, but hope for coating and anything else is gravy. It's just not a cold airmass...my expectations are low where I am as well..nevermind near the canal. You'll get yours this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ray's claim has got some science behind it...look at the NAM bias when it predicts 1.5" of qpf at 60 hours out...the bias is 1.5 (or even slighter higher) which means the forecast to observation ratio is 1.5...so slice by 1/3 to get to reality: I stand corrected , gFS is not far behind, what about the Euro? do you have the 48 hr numbers, also that means it nails .75 prediction at 60 hrs, so you only cut it by 1/3 rd when its 1.5 and greater??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 box 4-6 for tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Upton quite bullish with their new map. BOX has BOS at 1-2 instead of < 1 which is nice I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised if the front end snows overperform here in sw ct. We tend to do very well on the initial stuff. Plus, the gradient is really tight 8n fairfield county. It goes from virtually nada at BDR to 8" for DXR. Any small ticks makes a big difference within the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONSWILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREESOR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. INCOLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCHAREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTALCOMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHERELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 4-6 for tolland Its actually 6-8 but do You live there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 box Looks conservative compared to okx...which has 6-8" for the north half of it's CT zones, and 4-6" along the shoreline. Being conservative myself...I'm not sold on 4-6" totals all the way to the shoreline...it may be a nailbiter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 box Pretty much cut back everywhere. Not what I was expecting. Didnt really expand accums much either at all. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Box map cuts back from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 box Quite the tainting it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.