CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thank you and no kidding this far out . Scott also, do you see any N/NNE drain of cooler drier air wed am, or are we gonna see a large area of CP (out to Orh) "torch" to 40 prior to precip on light east winds. Whats your gut say on that , thank you ORH will probably be in the U30s or so when it starts, but have plenty of room to wetbulb. That's a product of an airmass not terribly cool, but thanks to lower dews, cool enough to snow inland. I don't see this as a nrly drain of cooler air, but it will help drain lower dews from air that isn't marine tainted. So your CF might separate air that's 36-38 vs near 30 or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thank you and no kidding this far out . Scott also, do you see any N/NNE drain of cooler drier air wed am, or are we gonna see a large area of CP (out to Orh) "torch" to 40 prior to precip on light east winds. Whats your gut say on that , thank you You should be taken to the woodshed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You should be taken to the woodshed. Been there in early Feb 2010. Kinky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BTV: 1-3" Picnic Tables: 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You can't judge CSI on a sounding... this doesn't really have a CSI look but rather a big front end thump look. Almost SWFEish with the mid level low to the west and the snow really from the initial omega burst. A wise man "Wes Junker" once told me once that looking at soundings you can in fact deduce that there could be some CSI, notice the bump in the 600-700 mb sounding, thats the spot to look at, . HM also has pointed this out, at any rate its unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Steve, that is the GFS, not Euro. I pointed that out yesterday too. The reason why you see that, is because you 700 low is further east. That isn't necessarily CSI either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A wise man "Wes Junker" once told me once that looking at soundings you can in fact deduce that there could be some CSI, notice the bump in the 600-700 mb sounding, thats the spot to look at, . HM also has pointed this out, at any rate its unstable. Yeah - you can't judge CSI from a sounding. You can try and find a MAUL but that is different from CSI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS/NAM type tracks would definitely be better for trying to get slantwise convection into SNE...Euro is more of a big omega front end thump. We don't know which camp is done moving (or if either are) so it's still early to get too wrapped up in that type of analysis...but if you are rooting for CSI the -EPV/fronto combo, then you want something more SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wagons West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Steve, that is the GFS, not Euro. I pointed that out yesterday too. The reason why you see that, is because you 700 low is further east. That isn't necessarily CSI either. Yeah - you can't judge CSI from a sounding. You can try and find a MAUL but that is different from CSI. GFS/NAM type tracks would definitely be better for trying to get slantwise convection into SNE...Euro is more of a big omega front end thump. We don't know which camp is done moving (or if either are) so it's still early to get too wrapped up in that type of analysis...but if you are rooting for CSI the -EPV/fronto combo, then you want something more SE. I was talking about the GFS "CSI seems in the cards too. noting unstable soundings especially on the GFS." http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/mddoutput/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wagons SREFs don't mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wagons West not much change in the snow probs from what I can tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wagons SREFs don't mean much. you are on a roll today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 CSI can be overrated too. It's usually those multiple narrow bands that develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 you are on a roll today! No, for real though, the SREFs have been terrible with a capital ugh for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 No, for real though, the SREFs have been terrible with a capital ugh for some time now. Yes, they should run the euro/gfs/ggem 8X per day and the others 1 per week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yes, they should run the euro/gfs/ggem 8X per day and the others 1 per week. If only the computing power existed....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GYX map http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If only the computing power existed....... I'm in the semi world.. those new 10nm chips from Intel should do the trick.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Another tick east on the ensembles. Looks close to BM or just inside to east of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Another tick east on the ensembles. Looks close to BM or just inside to east of ACK. Sounds like 50 miles west of the BM..Intersting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sounds like 50 m west of the BM..Intersting 50m is a distance even I can run....anyway, 50km west of 40/70 is pretty nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GYX map http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.php Like the new colors, More defined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 ORH will probably be in the U30s or so when it starts, but have plenty of room to wetbulb. That's a product of an airmass not terribly cool, but thanks to lower dews, cool enough to snow inland. I don't see this as a nrly drain of cooler air, but it will help drain lower dews from air that isn't marine tainted. So your CF might separate air that's 36-38 vs near 30 or so? Looks very very close to what we had 2 weeks ago in that snow event..when folks swore everyone would start as rain..but a few folks pointed out elevations would start as snow. It may take an hour or 2 to start sticking but above 700 feet starts as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks very very close to what we had 2 weeks ago in that snow event..when folks swore everyone would start as rain..but a few folks pointed out elevations would start as snow. It may take an hour or 2 to start sticking but above 700 feet starts as snow It doesn't matter whether it starts as snow or not in the hills. It will be irrelevant to the final accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sounds like 50 miles west of the BM..Intersting Not 50 miles west. Closer to BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Watches are up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro ensemble definitely east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It doesn't matter whether it starts as snow or not in the hills. It will be irrelevant to the final accumulations. Slam; b*tch slap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It doesn't matter whether it starts as snow or not in the hills. It will be irrelevant to the final accumulations. I know..but I think folks are thinking it starts as snow on the coast and valleys..It will start as rain there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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