ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 From the last few model runs, it absolutely did cave. The longer term is a different perspective(and on that I do agree with you that the EURO was the winner there), but over the last 36 hours or so, the GFS has been leading the way if the latest consensus is now correct. You could also argue that the GFS caved though too...it was further SE 24-36 hours ago. It has since moved further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If all things and trends continue holding true..we' will get that one last east shift on the euro at either 00z tonight or 12z tomorrow. It's been expected and so far has gone according to plan except for those that bought the couple embers of Euro ens that were west yesterday We'll need more than a tick on the Euro. That 700 hpa low track is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You could also argue that the GFS caved though too...it was further SE 24-36 hours ago. It has since moved further NW. It has done much more waffling, The para GFS has actually made a slow steady progression west which has not been as extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Lol at announcing which model "won" when we are still 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 the canadian started out way east and came west last night and today... the gfs has been generally coming west... the euro backed off the amped idea and has come east... i'd say a consensus is developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Back pedaling since March 2013.Since Harv went to WCVB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Lol at announcing which model "won" when we are still 48 hours out. It's easy to grin When your ship comes in And you've got the stock market beat But the man who's worthwhile Is the man who can smile When his shorts are too tight in the seat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here's the GFS 36 hours ago: Now today's run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's easy to grin When your ship comes in And you've got the stock market beat But the man who's worthwhile Is the man who can smile When his shorts are too tight in the seat You'll get nothing and like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Back pedaling since March 2013. http://boston.cbslocal.com/video/8550823-wbz-accuweather-midday-forecast-for-march-5/ And Then This - http://boston.cbslocal.com/video/8578371-wbz-accuweather-forecast-for-march-8/ I'll have those saved forever. Got the download as well. The 2nd being the Most helacious since the storm was On at that point. That was the miricle storm for me when I filmed the Only time I ever filmed myself looking at a model. Saw the huge jog in the GFS and called 2 feet Sunday for Thursday. Ohhh Fujiwawawawa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 the canadian started out way east and came west last night and today... the gfs has been generally coming west... the euro backed off the amped idea and has come east... i'd say a consensus is developing Yea. And btw, Upton didn't even use the euro in their blend in their AFD. Thought it was a western outliner. Interesting to see them disregard it. But now that it's ticking SE, confidence certainly has increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 what is the best way to estimate an approximate starting time and change over time based on the current data. I help run a small family business and we have important travel and business decision to make and I would really appreciate some input from some of the experts in here rather than just putting this in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 it seems as though the European is a little slower than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Channel 7 has some back pedaling to do. They hardly get there Weenie maps correct. Last year they called for rain with little to no snow on one storm & we ended up with near 4-6 inches, it was the beginning of the season. The plows weren't even plowing, they didn't even salt the roads. This board called it correctly. Days beforehand. I remember asking a few of their weatherman on twitter if they were positive and told them about this board, they called it a Weenie board. I have never looked back since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Does anyone have any info as to what the EURO showed for later in the weekend (i.e. Sat-Sun?). Would be much obliged as I am having my wedding reception on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 http://boston.cbslocal.com/video/8550823-wbz-accuweather-midday-forecast-for-march-5/ And Then This - http://boston.cbslocal.com/video/8578371-wbz-accuweather-forecast-for-march-8/ I'll have those saved forever. Got the download as well. The 2nd being the Most helacious since the storm was On at that point. That was the miricle storm for me when I filmed the Only time I ever filmed myself looking at a model. Saw the huge jog in the GFS and called 2 feet Sunday for Thursday. Ohhh Fujiwawawawa! I will always remember Phil's post that he was "buying a ticket" , at that time i was confident the storm was on.On topic, tonight's runs are huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Does anyone have any info as to what the EURO showed for later in the weekend (i.e. Sat-Sun?). Would be much obliged as I am having my wedding reception on Sat. It looks fine later in the weekend, pretty dry...Sunday actually could be pretty mild with SW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro 7 H is a spurious feature but something to watch. We have seen in the past high VV's wash that. Isothermal snow bomb seems in the cards for a lot of peeps. CSI seems in the cards too. noting unstable soundings especially on the GFS. Could be a crazy crazy CF, get on the right side and some big rates could pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 They hardly get there Weenie maps correct. Last year they called for rain with little to no snow on one storm & we ended up with near 4-6 inches, it was the beginning of the season. The plows weren't even plowing, they didn't even salt the roads. This board called it correctly. Days beforehand. I remember asking a few of their weatherman on twitter if they were positive and told them about this board, they called it a Weenie board. I have never looked back since. it can be a weenie board.. I'm sure some lurk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It looks fine later in the weekend, pretty dry...Sunday actually could be pretty mild with SW flow. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 CSI is more NW of closed mid level lows. This is a pure omega dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 CSI is more NW of closed mid level lows. This is a pure omega dump. Scott do you think the cf will be established when the thump gets underway, and what do you think the orientation of cf might be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro 7 H is a spurious feature but something to watch. We have seen in the past high VV's wash that. Isothermal snow bomb seems in the cards for a lot of peeps. CSI seems in the cards too. noting unstable soundings especially on the GFS. Could be a crazy crazy CF, get on the right side and some big rates could pop up. You can't judge CSI on a sounding... this doesn't really have a CSI look but rather a big front end thump look. Almost SWFEish with the mid level low to the west and the snow really from the initial omega burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I will always remember Phil's post that he was "buying a ticket" , at that time i was confident the storm was on. On topic, tonight's runs are huge Yup, Until 12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 it can be a weenie board.. I'm sure some lurk. I know it can be, but there are respectable meteorologists on here that give excellent calls on here. And when it comes down to crunch time, the weenieness does get cut down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Back pedaling since March 2013. I loved my two feet of mostly rain! Were you already on the south shore then for the fire hose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Eric Holthaus @EricHolthaus It's only snowed once on Thanksgiving in NYC since 1938. It should this year: was that a good year Jerry? jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I know it can be, but there are respectable meteorologists on here that give excellent calls on here. And when it comes down to crunch time, the weenieness does get cut down a bit. for sure this is the one and only board for weather. OT people at work thought I was crazy last week when I said possible snow, today I have them lining up to ask me how much.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Scott do you think the cf will be established when the thump gets underway, and what do you think the orientation of cf might be More of a N-S look I think. It will probably be right around BOS IMO, but I don't want to get too cute with those details this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 More of a N-S look I think. It will probably be right around BOS IMO, but I don't want to get too cute with those details this far out.Thank you and no kidding this far out .Scott also, do you see any N/NNE drain of cooler drier air wed am, or are we gonna see a large area of CP (out to Orh) "torch" to 40 prior to precip on light east winds. Whats your gut say on that , thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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