CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You aren't getting 12-16 with that 700 low track, but could be 10-12 for ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I don't think it will change much, aside from needing up the majority of the populous from 1-4" to 6-10"Haha, exactly. The first map was not good, IMO. Told my classmates that the totals would move east and they disagreed. I like where I stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Can anyone give us the .75,.50 and .25 lines so we get a general idea or QPF? Thanks Nice end-run around the myb posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 6-10" is a good range. Maybe a 1' lolli in ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Man crazy high thickness snow. 552 with -3 at 850 at BOS. 700 is a furnace though into central MA and CT. Would be nice for another tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nice end-run around the myb posts. Looked like 0.75" there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yes Will, NWS BOX Thanks MPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This is a classic WCB aggregate dump where many get 8-10 with perhaps near a foot in areas that don't taint much on the euro. That 700 low track argues for the good ice nuclei to get cut off leaving crappy flakes or mixed precip. Proabbly back to dendrites as the 700 low passes by. If it moves east, than all bets are off, but very very hard to get over a foot with that 700 low track in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Man crazy high thickness snow. 552 with -3 at 850 at BOS. 700 is a furnace though into central MA and CT. Would be nice for another tick east. Watch your mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Man crazy high thickness snow. 552 with -3 at 850 at BOS. 700 is a furnace though into central MA and CT. Would be nice for another tick east. Yeah we'd get pellets prob to ORH-BDL line easily on that...obviously a big hit of snow first...and then it does change back with a bit of a weenie commahead extending back at the end....but if Euro is mostly correct (even if we move it a whisker SE), then I think there will be pellets for a good chunk at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS soundings definitely show some issues with snow growth especially the farther southeast you go. Even BDL is not exactly exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You aren't getting 12-16 with that 700 low track, but could be 10-12 for ORH hills. Where does GFS/euro track 700 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks like we maintain cold in the column up here as the 700mb stays below -4c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yup, EURO caved to the GFS. Not quite out to the relevant panels on WxBell yet for the NNE guys, but I think you'll still see decent accumulations on this run. Yup, EURO caved to the GFS. Not quite out to the relevant panels on WxBell yet for the NNE guys, but I think you'll still see decent accumulations on this run. Sheep...Euro didn't cave. It adjusted east slightly. GFS had nothing for days when euro was the only one with a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah we'd get pellets prob to ORH-BDL line easily on that...obviously a big hit of snow first...and then it does change back with a bit of a weenie commahead extending back at the end....but if Euro is mostly correct (even if we move it a whisker SE), then I think there will be pellets for a good chunk at some point. In every life, some rain--er, sleet--must fall. Hopefully, the taint can be held back as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Where does GFS/euro track 700 low Berks on euro. BOS on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sheep...Euro didn't cave. It adjusted east slightly. GFS had nothing for days when euro was the only one with a storm. Ever since the GFS had the storm is has been east. Since having the storm, it has been more consistent than the Euro. Yes Euro had the storm first, but his also had to adjust more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks like we maintain cold in the column up here as the 700mb stays below -4cYeah you and Dendrite are bombs away.This run sounds like the best way to get all of us at least some snow. Even the areas that mix get a hellacious front end thump, and it's just enough NW to grab a few inches late in the game up here from the mid-level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ever since the GFS had the storm is has been east. Since having the storm, it has been more consistent than the Euro. Yes Euro had the storm first, but his also had to adjust more. No that isn't true. Euro was +/- 50 miles the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You aren't getting 12-16 with that 700 low track, but could be 10-12 for ORH hills. Where abouts is the 700 low tracking, I can't see the Euro...any change from last night? Edit: never mind I saw your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The model argument is flat out silly. EVERYONE should know 4-5+ days out means nothing. You are going to have so many times where models lose and then regain storms, it's not even funny. Go time is within 48 hrs of the event. This is when critical decisions are being made and model support is of the most importance. The euro shines in this time frame when it comes to east coast cyclogenesis, Myself, and most other mets...could care less who was 50 miles east or west 4+ days out, and neither should you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Channel 7 guy had all rain thru 128 and 1/3 i think out to almost 495. Is Boston in play for a hellacious 34f front end mashed tater dump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The model argument is flat out silly. EVERYONE should know 4-5+ days out means nothing. You are going to have so many times where models lose and then regain storms, it's not even funny. Go time is within 48 hrs of the event. This is when critical decisions are being made and model support is of the most importance. The euro shines in this time frame when it comes to east coast cyclogenesis, Myself, and most other mets...could care less who was 50 miles east or west 4+ days out, and neither should you. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Along the 84/91 and NW line in CT will do well. Litchfield county bangs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Channel 7 guy had all rain thru 128 and 1/3 i think out to almost 495. Is Boston in play for a hellacious 34f front end mashed tater dump? Channel 7 has some back pedaling to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sheep...Euro didn't cave. It adjusted east slightly. GFS had nothing for days when euro was the only one with a storm. From the last few model runs, it absolutely did cave. The longer term is a different perspective(and on that I do agree with you that the EURO was the winner there), but over the last 36 hours or so, the GFS has been leading the way if the latest consensus is now correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The model argument is flat out silly. EVERYONE should know 4-5+ days out means nothing. You are going to have so many times where models lose and then regain storms, it's not even funny. Go time is within 48 hrs of the event. This is when critical decisions are being made and model support is of the most importance. The euro shines in this time frame when it comes to east coast cyclogenesis, Myself, and most other mets...could care less who was 50 miles east or west 4+ days out, and neither should you. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah crunch time for the models really starts tonight and tomorrow...if we want to give medium range kudos...Euro def wins havign shown this as a meaningful storm before other guidance. But details havent been determined yet. Tonight and 12z tomorrow is when we really hone in on the details of mix lines and jackpot fetishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If all things and trends continue holding true..we' will get that one last east shift on the euro at either 00z tonight or 12z tomorrow. It's been expected and so far has gone according to plan except for those that bought the couple embers of Euro ens that were west yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Channel 7 has some back pedaling to do. Back pedaling since March 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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