OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Did they get usurped by GYX? If so, I think that's why--they haven't put out any watches yet. I suspect GYX will move based on what the rest of the 12z run shows. Not until 12/3. Keep in mind we were over 48 hours out overnight. With the uncertainty I'm guessing the decision was made to hold off one more shift. These are definitely early watches, mostly for the travel impacts. You wouldn't typically see this kind of lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Like I said, anecdotal. When a model makes a shift that is greater than noise, it is due to picking up on something different. It isn't unreasonable to think that it might just be that the UKMET picks up on something different than previously forecast in the latest initialization conditions, and the ECMWF picks up on the same thing. But yeah, a 5-10 mile shift is noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Like I said, anecdotal. And the reals why it's not good to conclude such. Remember UKMET is our crazy uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GEFS \ It appears that a lot of those are SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It appears that a lot of those are SE. We are close to the stage where we let the ensembles go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We are close to the stage where we let the ensembles go. Thank God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not sure if anyone saw the latest Albany graphic...I like where I sit..should be some decent snow growth in my area Interesting, those big amounts seem to extend down this way into fairfield county. I thought this system will have a "best is west" look to it and this map reflects it. But I don't know about those pinks in my hood. I can see DXR doing well though, like 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We are close to the stage where we let the ensembles go. Probably can look at them for this suite and then call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Has KTAN developed a snowfall map for this upcoming event yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Has KTAN developed a snowfall map for this upcoming event yet. http://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowRange.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Has KTAN developed a snowfall map for this upcoming event yet. http://www.weather.gov/box/winter I don't think it's been updated since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Has KTAN developed a snowfall map for this upcoming event yet. KTAN is an airport in Taunton, MA...did you mean NWS BOX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here's BOX's first stab. Looks low for a lot of areas, about right in others. Loving what they're showing for areas to the west of their CWA. Tasty. Has KTAN developed a snowfall map for this upcoming event yet. http://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowRange.png http://www.weather.gov/box/winter I don't think it's been updated since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Interesting, those big amounts seem to extend down this way into fairfield county. I thought this system will have a "best is west" look to it and this map reflects it. But I don't know about those pinks in my hood. I can see DXR doing well though, like 8-12". Uptons map drops off considerably closer to BDR, DXR should do good tho, I hope everything holds serve with all the height levels, if so, I think jackpot from hpn to orh, but with the model spread and two days out, who knows. Not to mention, I do not like the antecedent airmass, I'm at 64 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Upton as of 11:30: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro looks a tick SE through 42 hours, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro looks a tick SE through 42 hours, FWIW. Almost looks like the GFS now at hour 48, maybe a little cooler. Should make a lot of folks happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Only through 54, but it looks like wagons E on the Euro a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro moving towards GFS...wow GFS lead the way by staying east consistently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BOX typically updates those maps at 4PM (I think) I don't think it will change much other thn maybe getting closer to the cosst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 When a model makes a shift that is greater than noise, it is due to picking up on something different. It isn't unreasonable to think that it might just be that the UKMET picks up on something different than previously forecast in the latest initialization conditions, and the ECMWF picks up on the same thing. But yeah, a 5-10 mile shift is noise. Euro moves east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro is definitely east. Woof woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nice run for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Powder, there goes our big storm, congrads SNE!. Has been the trend past 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS didn't lead the goddamned way. Euro had the storm and finally the rest of the suite. Back 6-7 days I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 And we just lost interest, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro is definitely east. Woof woof. How much east? Any word on that warm layer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS didn't lead the goddamned way. Euro had the storm and finally the rest of the suite. Back 6-7 days I think. I was referring to the fact that the GFS has held serve as far as being east...the Euro hasn't it has been west and now going east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Track between ACK and the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS didn't lead the goddamned way. Euro had the storm and finally the rest of the suite. Back 6-7 days I think. Yeah, I LOL'd at that one...GFS barely had a scraper two days ago. Euro is a bit east but still on the amped/warmer side of guidance...pellets might make it to ORH even...but def for a good chunk of CT and RI and parts of interior SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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