Guvna Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 146 users on right now.....yup...Winter is on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Congrats............... It's got the ARW steroid camp on its side! Lol. I don't need to jack by any means, in fact I want everyone to get good snows, would love to just get 3" to re-cover the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Congrats............... Yowza! How does that placement compare to the prior run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 UK nudged west. Ugh CC canal it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yowza! How does that placement compare to the prior run? West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 146 users on right now.....yup...Winter is on the way! Affects a lot of members, high impact event travel wise Interesting evolution. Hey, locations show on mobile now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We know what the EURO will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's got the ARW steroid camp on its side! Lol. I don't need to jack by any means, in fact I want everyone to get good snows, would love to just get 3" to re-cover the grass. You would be shoveling off the picnic tables Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We know what the EURO will do. Hold serve likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hold serve likely May even nudge west. EURO was over the outter cape. Hold serve likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I don't think it will move inch further west if at all Depends on the kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 May even nudge west. EURO was over the outter cape. Doesn't mean it will follow the Ukie..sometimes it does. But the Ukie has been pretty volatile in this storm. Nobody really knows what the Euro is going to do...if it goes E 20 miles, everyone will be rejoicing in SNE, if it goes west 4 miles, everyone will act like the storm is doomed. Everyone should understand where we are right now in the forecast...there's still 2 days away and some decent model spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I don't think it will move inch further west if at all Depends on the kicker Or might it be a phaser instead tugging it back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Or might it be a phaser instead tugging it back west.Yup. That is on the table. We will know soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Doesn't mean it will follow the Ukie..sometimes it does. But the Ukie has been pretty volatile in this storm. Nobody really knows what the Euro is going to do...if it goes E 20 miles, everyone will be rejoicing in SNE, if it goes west 4 miles, everyone will act like the storm is doomed. Everyone should understand where we are right now in the forecast...there's still 2 days away and some decent model spread. Which has still been an eternity, I just think we are shrinking the goal post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Doesn't mean it will follow the Ukie..sometimes it does. But the Ukie has been pretty volatile in this storm. Nobody really knows what the Euro is going to do...if it goes E 20 miles, everyone will be rejoicing in SNE, if it goes west 4 miles, everyone will act like the storm is doomed. Everyone should understand where we are right now in the forecast...there's still 2 days away and some decent model spread. Why the sentiment that if UKIE goes west the Euro will also? are they run off the same supercomputers or using the same scripts etc? or same guy hits the go button? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Why the sentiment that if UKIE goes west the Euro will also? are they run off the same supercomputers or using the same scripts etc? or same guy hits the go button? It's a fairly common anecdote that the UK output is an indicator of what the next euro run will do, but I'm not sure if there's a programming reason behind it or if it's just popular perceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Why the sentiment that if UKIE goes west the Euro will also? are they run off the same supercomputers or using the same scripts etc? or same guy hits the go button? 1) Uk is oft an auger of the EURO's trend. 2) EURO ha sbeen the most amped solution all along. Anecdotal, but logical nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's a fairly common anecdote that the UK output is an indicator of what the next euro run will do, but I'm not sure if there's a programming reason behind it or if it's just popular perceptions. sounds like an urban legend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 1) Uk is oft an auger of the EURO's trend. 2) EURO ha sbeen the most amped solution all along. Anecdotal, but logical nonetheless. but there seems to be no scientific reason for it unless they use similar parameters/grids whatever.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Doesn't mean it will follow the Ukie..sometimes it does. But the Ukie has been pretty volatile in this storm. Nobody really knows what the Euro is going to do...if it goes E 20 miles, everyone will be rejoicing in SNE, if it goes west 4 miles, everyone will act like the storm is doomed. Everyone should understand where we are right now in the forecast...there's still 2 days away and some decent model spread. Good post, ORH. It is funny how just putting "east" or "west" in front of the trend, even if it's only 5-10 miles, will cause mass panic or rejoicing. I've never been a fan of the UKMET, about on par with the GGEM. Take a mean of those two models and you get the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The WSI twitter feed shows about 12" of snow from SNH to the MA/CT border over to 495 and up into Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Any thoughts as to why Southern New Hampshire isn't included in the Winter Storm Watch? Initially I thought it had to do with the timing until beginning of event, but the initial Watch was issued at 3 am which is a good 48 hours before the beginnng of the event so time until first lakes is out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Let's get back on topic. Take the banter to the other thread, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Any thoughts as to why Southern New Hampshire isn't included in the Winter Storm Watch? Initially I thought it had to do with the timing until beginning of event, but the initial Watch was issued at 3 am which is a good 48 hours before the beginnng of the event so time until first lakes is out the window. Did they get usurped by GYX? If so, I think that's why--they haven't put out any watches yet. I suspect GYX will move based on what the rest of the 12z run shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not sure if anyone saw the latest Albany graphic...I like where I sit..should be some decent snow growth in my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Good post, ORH. It is funny how just putting "east" or "west" in front of the trend, even if it's only 5-10 miles, will cause mass panic or rejoicing. I've never been a fan of the UKMET, about on par with the GGEM. Take a mean of those two models and you get the GFS. Yep. Sometimes people want to read meaning into a result where there is none to be had. A 10 mile tick west is basically the same as a 5 mile tick east in terms of model accuracy at 48 hour out. Some want to read a 10 mile tick west as solid evidence that there is a clear NW trend but in reality that is well within the bounds of noise. I would consider that a "no change". Now if it come back like 50 miles west like yesterday's 12z, then we'll have a lot more to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GEFS \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 but there seems to be no scientific reason for it unless they use similar parameters/grids whatever.. Like I said, anecdotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yep. Sometimes people want to read meaning into a result where there is none to be had. A 10 mile tick west is basically the same as a 5 mile tick east in terms of model accuracy at 48 hour out. Some want to read a 10 mile tick west as solid evidence that there is a clear NW trend but in reality that is well within the bounds of noise. I would consider that a "no change". Now if it come back like 50 miles west like yesterday's 12z, then we'll have a lot more to talk about. True. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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