dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Paraplegic translongitudinal GFS http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=usus&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=96&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Did i ever tell you i was a fan of the color Hot Pink? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro is a bit of an outlier with how far inland it slams the mid-level warm tongue. I'm guessing that is why BOX isn't hitting that aspect very hard. I'm sure they will play it up more of it holds serve an other guidance comes in board One caution flag though might be the track of the GFS mid level centers. It does bring the 700 mb low over interior SNE and to near PSM by 06z Thursday. That could certainly bring some warmth with it. It's below freezing there now, but it's not far away from something close to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It could literally be like 8 inches of mashed potatoes on the trees in a place like Newton, MA...and only mashed potatoes in the serving bowl for immediate coastal areas. Well I'd welcome even an inch or two. Regardless, I am glad we are coming out of this month with a bang. Hopefully do it again in a couple of weeks or beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Paraplegic translongitudinal GFS http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=usus&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=96&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= That output is crap over e MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 One caution flag though might be the track of the GFS mid level centers. It does bring the 700 mb low over interior SNE and to near PSM by 06z Thursday. That could certainly bring some warmth with it. It's below freezing there now, but it's not far away from something close to the Euro. Yeah that's a warmer track if the mid-level center at H7 is more mature like the Euro...but the SE guidance seems to keep it more of an open wave (or just barely closed as it movs over) which reduces it's power to advect the warmth inland. But certainly if it ends up a bit more amped than the GFS/NAM show, then we could see some pellets tickle the pike region...definitely too early to rule that out. Another aspect of how this is a thread-the-needle event...not just placement, but also strength of some of these features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That output is crap over e MA They torch pretty good on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Noyes betting on a colder solution: http://www.mattnoyes.net/.a/6a00d83451c01c69e201bb07b3c49f970d-popup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's actually the 600-650mb layer that gets the warmest. Very high in altitude to see that, but given the origins...there ya go. Hence the high thickness snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 They torch pretty good on that run Are you referring to the para? Is that like OceanST was posting about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm sure you'll find a way upslope yourself to 12"+. Just how these things work. lol, not without a saturated low level and NE winds. We don't *always* snow...in fact a lot of the big ticket events on the forum (like this one) are quite underwhelming. We just snow when no one is paying attention to some odd weak wave moving through haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 lol, not without a saturated low level and NE winds. We don't *always* snow...in fact a lot of the big ticket events on the forum (like this one) are quite underwhelming. We just snow when no one is paying attention to some odd weak wave moving through haha. You are going to fluff your way to a good event there. Trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Noyes betting on a colder solution: http://www.mattnoyes.net/.a/6a00d83451c01c69e201bb07b3c49f970d-popup Is he referring to the whole map with that "remarkably low predictability" comment? If so, he sure is hedging that bet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah that's a warmer track if the mid-level center at H7 is more mature like the Euro...but the SE guidance seems to keep it more of an open wave (or just barely closed as it movs over) which reduces it's power to advect the warmth inland. But certainly if it ends up a bit more amped than the GFS/NAM show, then we could see some pellets tickle the pike region...definitely too early to rule that out. Another aspect of how this is a thread-the-needle event...not just placement, but also strength of some of these features. I'm also very interested in the GEM/RGEM performance now with the recent model updates. Sometimes these "upgrades" bring unintended consequences. Great you increased resolution, but now it can't handle cyclogenesis because convection takes over (see: NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's actually the 600-650mb layer that gets the warmest. Very high in altitude to see that, but given the origins...there ya go. Hence the high thickness snow. And the fact it's mild above means snow growth will likely be sort of meh. The 6z GFS didn't have particuarly good snow growth around here with the DGZ wayyyyyy up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Doesn't want to budge with a benchmark or just east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 And the fact it's mild above means snow growth will likely be sort of meh. The 6z GFS didn't have particuarly good snow growth around here with the DGZ wayyyyyy up there. I feel like WCB snows are usually fairly decent snow flake producers. I can't recall one that had crappy snow growth...perhaps because of so much lift through a moist layer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Are you referring to the para? Is that like OceanST was posting about? What Ray was saying about SE areas, On the Para they were warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Doesn't want to budge with a benchmark or just east of it. More inclined to see the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ensemble sensitivity has changed a bit from the overnight runs. Now the variance is coming in large part from the PAC NW shortwave. Since at initialization this was pretty close to the coast already we can have some sense of how reality is matching with model progs. To get a deeper and slightly slower solution, we want reality to be lower heights with the shortwave than forecast. This is the ensemble mean compared to upper air this morning. Basically pretty close to dead on, maybe could argue the tiniest of hairs lower heights than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You are going to fluff your way to a good event there. Trust me. Well if the EURO is right, no problem. The best mid level moisture and low tracks are a little too far SE for my liking though on GFS/NAM. Those to me scream GC-ORH-DENDRITE fluff band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 And the fact it's mild above means snow growth will likely be sort of meh. The 6z GFS didn't have particuarly good snow growth around here with the DGZ wayyyyyy up there. A little nervy forecasting big amounts when you see that. It's easy to have a little dry air work into the DGZ up that high. But less than stellar snow growth does make sense especially up my way if the 700 mb low tracks overhead. By this latitude it won't be closing off and dynamically forcing lift anymore, it will be shifting to the cold side of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I feel like WCB snows are usually fairly decent snow flake producers. I can't recall one that had crappy snow growth...perhaps because of so much lift through a moist layer? That maritime influence will actually favor snow growth, as the sea salt can get the DGZ down to -6 to -8o C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well if the EURO is right, no problem. The best mid level moisture and low tracks are a little too far SE for my liking though on GFS/NAM. Those to me scream GC-ORH-DENDRITE fluff band. GFS is just SE of you perhaps for the best stuff, but it's not bad dude. Better snow growth out your way near 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A little nervy forecasting big amounts when you see that. It's easy to have a little dry air work into the DGZ up that high. But less than stellar snow growth does make sense especially up my way if the 700 mb low tracks overhead. By this latitude it won't be closing off and dynamically forcing lift anymore, it will be shifting to the cold side of track. You on short term or long term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That maritime influence will actually favor snow growth, as the sea salt can get the DGZ down to -6 to -8o C. We had sugar in some of our SWFE, but these moisture bombs usually are decent snow flake producers..probably in part to that. To me, what will limit longevity, is how fast the DS races in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You on short term or long term? Short. The storm will be back in my time period tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Short. The storm will be back in my time period tomorrow though. Boo, No watch call for you but can trigger the warning then............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS is just SE of you perhaps for the best stuff, but it's not bad dude. Better snow growth out your way near 500mb. Fun event to track anyway...good to get the bulk of posters to the south started on winter too. I got a couple localized snowstorms this past week to tide me over. I think the evolution of this system so far has been fascinating. fun to get back into the "multiple pages of posts per hour" routine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Fun event to track anyway...good to get the bulk of posters to the south started on winter too. I got a couple localized snowstorms this past week to tide me over. I think the evolution of this system so far has been fascinating. fun to get back into the "multiple pages of posts per hour" routine. Congrats............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We had sugar in some of our SWFE, but these moisture bombs usually are decent snow flake producers..probably in part to that. To me, what will limit longevity, is how fast the DS races in. What a DD. In the all-snow areas, it looks like this storm may be pretty equitable over a large portion of SNE. Maybe I'm misreading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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