powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Congrats guys...going to get smoked down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 bullseye looks like north of Hartford, Sturbridge, Springfield area on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS sweet spot IMHO is HFD-ORH-GAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS sweet spot IMHO is HFD-ORH-GAY. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS has gravity wave like features shown on 850-500 lift. The H7 low is kind of open wave and closes almost just on top of SNE...that's a good look. You want it just closing off if its going to be overhead...and the 850 low is well SE. Probably some slantwise convection in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The H7 low is kind of open wave and closes almost just on top of SNE...that's a good look. You want it just closing off if its going to be overhead...and the 850 low is well SE. Probably some slantwise convection in there. Pretty weird looking, but you can get strong VVs with that much warmth and moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks more and more like the shortwave diving on the backside acts as a kicker and not a phase job. So the worries about a NW solution should be tamed. Also, don't know how big of an impact it makes but the front is very slow to come through. It kinda stalls across the apps. Someone mentioned that a few times yesterday.. About the kicker in the N Plains.. That it was the key to this whole thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z Para GFS is a crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Someone mentioned that a few times yesterday.. About the kicker in the N Plains.. That it was the key to this whole thing It may even be before that. The ridging out west and don't forget about the strung out s/w we have departing here. It all works in harmony. That said, wiggles in either direction aren't done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Pretty weird looking, but you can get strong VVs with that much warmth and moisture to work with. gfsNE_700_vvel_051.gif System will have a good tropical connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z Para GFS is a crush job Roight m8 but 4 whom tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The GFS scoots it outa here pretty quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z Para GFS is a crush job For who son? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Someone mentioned that a few times yesterday.. About the kicker in the N Plains.. That it was the key to this whole thing LOL--I wonder who. As far as qpf--it's more robust than my earlier post suggested. Let's see how the EC does. I anticipate minimal adjustment at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 New gfs (para) takes it right smack over the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Are those gravity wave looking things (kinda large scale, too) being caused by vertical dynamics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Inland away from the coast, Its a tick or two NW of the 12z GFS more robust on qpf and throws more back west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Are those gravity wave looking things (kinda large scale, too) being caused by vertical dynamics? Well it may be the model having trouble with the lift, but the 6z had it too. If there were to be strong lift, you'll see models handle it in a whacky way sometimes. It could also disappear on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 At this point I'd forecast a low over ack giving the euro the most credence and blending towards the other models a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For the coastal folks...I think you guys might be in for a pleasant surprise. Soon as you change winds from ENE to NNE, you should pound snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 At this point I'd forecast a low over ack giving the euro the most credence and blending towards the other models a bit. That was my call last night as well, I think we see the Euro make a tic or so east at 12z, We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For the coastal folks...I think you guys might be in for a pleasant surprise. Soon as you change winds from ENE to NNE, you should pound snow Anything that whitens the ground before Thanksgiving is a huge bonus. It's always easier to track a deer in the woods after a fresh snow. I am looking forward to your posts during the storm, since it looks great for your neck of the woods right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm sure you'll find a way upslope yourself to 12"+. Just how these things work. Yes, for the 6 square miles that gets into upslope up here, this will work out fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's gonna be tough Kevin. A month from now and it would be 8-10" of paste. Can't do it with 950 temps near 0C and 50F waters. Maybe at the end. If somehow we can keep the winds north like in the Nov storms of 2002 and 2004, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Anything that whitens the ground before Thanksgiving is a huge bonus. It's always easier to track a deer in the woods after a fresh snow. I am looking forward to your posts during the storm, since it looks great for your neck of the woods right now. As i will be doing TD day, Friday and Saturday to close out the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Jesus Christ are you a Debbie. Not intending to be a DD at all. I think it's as legit a question as to where the deformation band sets up (we know somehow PF will manage to get in on it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's gonna be tough Kevin. A month from now and it would be 8-10" of paste. Can't do it with 950 temps near 0C and 50F waters. Maybe at the end. If somehow we can keep the winds north like in the Nov storms of 2002 and 2004, perhaps. It could literally be like 8 inches of mashed potatoes on the trees in a place like Newton, MA...and only mashed potatoes in the serving bowl for immediate coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's gonna be tough Kevin. A month from now and it would be 8-10" of paste. Can't do it with 950 temps near 0C and 50F waters. Maybe at the end. If somehow we can keep the winds north like in the Nov storms of 2002 and 2004, perhaps.Well I was thinking like 3-6 for you guys. If the thing does indeed take the BM track you should be able to rip for 3-4 hours as winds go N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Paraplegic translongitudinal GFS http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=usus&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=96&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It could literally be like 8 inches of mashed potatoes on the trees in a place like Newton, MA...and only mashed potatoes in the serving bowl for immediate coastal areas. I don't think you mean mashed potatoes literally. What's the sense of the warm push that the EC has had--a mirage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.