Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 clown maps GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SREF's look nice 1.50" QPF into 495 region.. all snow areas are going to have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro is awfully warm at 700 hpa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro is awfully warm at 700 hpa. Pelt fest for many after a good dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Pelt fest for many after a good dump. Yeah that's like half the the precip as pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SREF's look nice 1.50" QPF into 495 region.. all snow areas are going to have fun! Knock SREF QPF by like a third...more like 1-1.25" probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 in what area would Euro have precip half sleet? Good chunk of SNE pike southward. Might even go to cold rain in a chunk of CT RI and of course the CP of MA. Even ORH is a pelletfest for a time at the height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Guys - the IMBY questions are getting really, really bad. This thread is for discussion only. Weenie posts, IMBY posts, etc will be deleted and soon we'll be handing out warnings. If someone wants to create or take the other stuff into a banter thread feel free to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not sure it has been mentioned but para now is a huge hit. It has slowly ticked west over the last day or two so that may be the behavior of this model, Not being radical but steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro is awfully warm at 700 hpa. It always seems like the warm air aloft punches in faster than modeled so we now have that to worry about. Hours of heavy sleet would not be much of an improvement for road conditions except for a little better visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Man. I would like to buy the Euro Ens mean for $2000 please Alex. Absolutely smokes the Berks east to ORH then points north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If we get the expected east tickle that mets are thinking on the 12z Euro..that eliminates any sleet issues for a large chunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro is a bit of an outlier with how far inland it slams the mid-level warm tongue. I'm guessing that is why BOX isn't hitting that aspect very hard. I'm sure they will play it up more of it holds serve an other guidance comes in board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I didn't realize it was wrong to ask about specific area projections? we are within 54 hours now and I thought interpreting the data and projecting what the output would be in various locations throughout New England was acceptable but if that's not the case, I stand corrected.Other people have been putting up snow maps but some of my comments get deleted because I was asking where the sleet line set up on last night's European? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If the euro moves east, it's been crappy for the 4-6 day timeframe. Luckily it's inside 48 hrs when you need to make critical decisions, where it counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It always seems like the warm air aloft punches in faster than modeled so we now have that to worry about. Hours of heavy sleet would not be much of an improvement for road conditions except for a little better visibility. In marginal events like this it always seems to be a big driver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro is a bit of an outlier with how far inland it slams the mid-level warm tongue. I'm guessing that is why BOX isn't hitting that aspect very hard. I'm sure they will play it up more of it holds serve an other guidance comes in board Yeah I agree with that. Euro is definitely by itself with that 700 mb torch. Ensembles are clustered nicely around the benchmark too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Guys - the IMBY questions are getting really, really bad. This thread is for discussion only. Weenie posts, IMBY posts, etc will be deleted and soon we'll be handing out warnings. If someone wants to create or take the other stuff into a banter thread feel free to. We have a banter/imby thread that was created already. Speculate/ wishcast/ weeniecast/ and ask all the imby questions you want there. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44957-1126-272014-coastal-storm-banter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Joe DelliCarpini @JoeDawg42 23m23 minutes ago FWIW: Recent @NWSWPC verification shows ECMWF/GFS blend has lowest track error, but 75 mi on avg for 12hr fcst! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Those aren't automated maps..They make them..that's why you see the little pixels over terrain sometimes I recall Arnold saying that they assign the areas but that the amount ranges were templated. Gotta wonder if the euro caves a bit more. The other guidance has been pretty stubbornly east. Stop raining on my rainy day. I like the Albany map a lot for selfish reasons. But, I think the focus will be a little east of where they are providing more love to eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah I agree with that. Euro is definitely by itself with that 700 mb torch. Ensembles are clustered nicely around the benchmark too. See what 12z today brings. We are at the point where we should be able to start taking a serious look at the deterministic models and not so much the ensembles. Track on the various models aren't all that much different right not but any shift one way or another will mean a difference in sensable weather for a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Meteorologists..what is your thinking for high end amounts in areas that are all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Meteorologists..what is your thinking for high end amounts in areas that are all snow? Lol, the end around the IMBY question. Still 2 days of runs before exact track is known. This still can come west, that trough axis is pretty far west and with no real blocking we could see a warmer solution yet. perfect scenario yields a 10-14 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON- 347 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. * TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LAST OVER INTERIOR NEW LONDON COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. * IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES. I'm about 5 miles north of the Northern New Haven County line(southwest Hartford County) in CT, NWS in New York saying 4-8 inches possibly for those areas, but yet Taunton(which is where my area is technically under), has 1-2 inches for me. Like Ray said, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense right now calling for 1-2 inches in some of their spots. Interesting to see if they up those low amounts, or stay with them. Ofcourse if the modeling shifts West today, then those could be correct, but then everybody's totals would be lower as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Lol, the end around the IMBY question. Still 2 days of runs before exact track is known. This still can come west, that trough axis is pretty far west and with no real blocking we could see a warmer solution yet. perfect scenario yields a 10-14 event. I agree, 10-14 seems like max, NAM coming in similar to 6z up to 39hrs upstairs (500) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 10-14 would be max, but if the GFS is right, dryslot moves in east of the CT river and any meaningful precip shuts off shorty after 7pm Wed night. Of course this is all dependent which model is right, but I think people need to keep that in mind. This will be a quick hitting 6-8 hr event if the GFS is right. Lighter snows may linger overnight as the mid level low moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Despite model differences on exact track they all agree on speed. The heavy precip is in and out pretty quick. Any double digits amounts will be the exception, not widespread even in places that stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I agree, 10-14 seems like max, NAM coming in similar to 6z up to 39hrs upstairs (500) also seems slower and stronger...at the surface @42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I feel like that second s/w is acting like a kicker on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Lol, the end around the IMBY question. Still 2 days of runs before exact track is known. This still can come west, that trough axis is pretty far west and with no real blocking we could see a warmer solution yet. perfect scenario yields a 10-14 event. Thought the same on the first part, But i don't think we have nailed anything down as we still will have some models catching up and coming west while others start to tic opposite and settle in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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