moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 10-14" includes the 10" Ignore the higher end I know the map's automated, but that does not mean to toss the higher end in every map. Sometimes the automated ranges are legitimate. That said, I agree with you that the 14" are artifacts of the automation rather than expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I know the map's automated, but that does not mean to toss the higher end in every map. Sometimes the automated ranges are legitimate. That said, I agree with you that the 14" are artifacts of the automation rather than expectation. Those aren't automated maps..They make them..that's why you see the little pixels over terrain sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS with another move east again. In any case congrats to those getting a nice event.Gotta wonder if the euro caves a bit more. The other guidance has been pretty stubbornly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A month later in the same setup everyone off the cape would be getting clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 10-14 seems high I think 8-10 with lolli's to 12 would be better That's a surprisingly reasonable post from you, good call though. It's going to come in hard and fast, but it's a quick mover...so you get like 6-9 hours of steady snow. Say an average of 1"/hr. Some spots maybe more, some maybe less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That's a surprisingly reasonable post from you, good call though. It's going to come in hard and fast, but it's a quick mover...so you get like 6-9 hours of steady snow. Say an average of 1"/hr. Some spots maybe more, some maybe less. There is a good signal for hours of precip before the main event fwiw. The key is what type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think the Euro will go another tick or two east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 There is a good signal for hours of precip before the main event fwiw. The key is what type. Yes but I still think most folks see the majority of their accumulations in a relatively short period of 6-9 hours. It's obviously going to have some lighter stuff on either side, but the bulk should happen fairy quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm not sure what piece of guidance only has 1-2" here. What a silly map.I agree. Probably like 6-8" for you. 5-7" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I know it's close in but what are the gfs ensembles saying? Still slightly east of op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I always love a winter storm but this one is fukking me up. I have to leave Boston at 9pm Tuesday (can't go earlier) and try to make it to NYC so Wednesday morning is manageable with at most an hours drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Good snow will happen right to 128 if we see another small tick E...in fact it might be enhanced there by a CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Good snow will happen right to 128 if we see another small tick E...in fact it might be enhanced there by a CF. Do you think BOS ekes out measurable snow from this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think the Euro will go another tick or two east Yesterday afternoon everyone posted "I think the rest will tick west". Now it's the Euro will go east, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtgicllta Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I always love a winter storm but this one is fukking me up. I have to leave Boston at 9pm Tuesday (can't go earlier) and try to make it to NYC so Wednesday morning is manageable with at most an hours drive. Sorry to hear that, man. Cruel dichotomy of loving winter weather. Sometimes when it all comes together, the timing for life's events couldn't be worse. Safe travels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Do you think BOS ekes out measurable snow from this system? Measurable? Yeah I think so. It might be nooses for a lot of the storm...but I'd be surprised if they didn't get measurable...esp late in the storm on the assumption this thing tracks more near ACK/BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not sure it has been mentioned but para now is a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yesterday afternoon everyone posted "I think the rest will tick west". Now it's the Euro will go east, lol. I'm not surprised the Euro went east...I've thought it was a bit amped the whole time...but I still think it could be more right than wrong. Hard to say yet...but even a 60/40 win for the Euro is a big snow event for most of SNE...so the Euro "wins" but it has the impression of losing because it caved enough to change the sensible wx a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Measurable? Yeah I think so. It might be nooses for a lot of the storm...but I'd be surprised if they didn't get measurable...esp late in the storm on the assumption this thing tracks more near ACK/BM. Yeah that's my thought. I'll be in Princeton which should do better than mby given longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not sure it has been mentioned but para now is a huge hit. Deets? At work and limited web access... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That's a surprisingly reasonable post from you, good call though. It's going to come in hard and fast, but it's a quick mover...so you get like 6-9 hours of steady snow. Say an average of 1"/hr. Some spots maybe more, some maybe less. I think I'm always reasonable.. When I see the potential for something big I go balls out..this one has a pretty easy to see ceiling. 12 seems like max..Maybe some slanter grabs 13 somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah that's my thought. I'll be in Princeton which should do better than mby given longitude. I could see a tight gradient near BOS...esp if this tickles E one more time. Newton gets a lot while Logan airport struggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BOS may get a few if the GFS is right. CF goes to the city. 700 frotogenesis max there. Could be a surprise dump for Jerry if GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If this tickles east again on the euro this afternoon, is it possible even interior SE mass could flip to a bit of snow really late in the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 JMA looks pretty far offshore, another data point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BOS may get a few if the GFS is right. CF goes to the city. 700 frotogenesis max there. Could be a surprise dump for Jerry if GFS is right. Ray and I are borderline 1-2 or 4-6.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If this tickles east again on the euro this afternoon, is it possible even interior SE mass could flip to a bit of snow really late in the storm? You are getting snow if the GFS is right regardless. Nevermind the BOX map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Per box, golified nothing here. Congrats to those getting snow You want snow, pray for the 06z NAM. 57 11/26 15Z 38 33 339 6 0.09 0.00 545 564 -3.1 -11.9 1023 100 RA 096OVC300 0.0 5.6 60 11/26 18Z 33 32 2 5 0.17 0.00 545 561 -2.8 -10.0 1019 100 SN 003OVC391 1.9 0.3 63 11/26 21Z 32 32 7 9 0.37 0.00 546 559 -2.3 -11.6 1016 100 SN 025OVC345 3.7 0.5 66 11/27 00Z 32 31 3 10 0.23 0.00 545 557 -2.2 -13.6 1015 100 SN 074OVC391 2.5 0.3 69 11/27 03Z 32 31 359 10 0.23 0.00 539 551 -2.0 -14.1 1015 100 -SN 096OVC369 2.3 0.8 72 11/27 06Z 32 31 339 8 0.01 0.00 535 547 -2.4 -20.7 1015 100 009OVC024 0.0 13.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ray and I are borderline 1-2 or 4-6.. I'd be pretty shocked if Ray only got 1-2...of even <4" unless the model consensus tickles back west a bit...which it could still do. 950mb are like -2C there...the models will probably be overplaying the sfc warmth until the last second...again assuming a track near the consensus rightnow with a Euro bias. If this comes back to tracking over PYM, then it will look different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah there is no way a track east of ACK is giving Ray 1-2. No way. Soundings are plenty cold if that track occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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