CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's still kind of early...remember even in the Feb 2013 blizzard it was flat until about 48 hours out and then it started doing crap like jackpotting N NJ. Yeah good point. Forgot about that. I just can't put any stock in that model until go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's still kind of early...remember even in the Feb 2013 blizzard it was flat until about 48 hours out and then it started doing crap like jackpotting N NJ. If the RGEM was right, The Euro would have made an epic bust as that would be quite a leap in the wrong direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Remember 3/8/13 nam had the h85 line hundreds of miles west right up to the event. Gfs on the early panels is slightly less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That tendency ends around 45 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This seems like it may not be as amped as 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This seems like it may not be as amped as 18z. Ever so slightly....barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Mimimal, Hair faster then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Good track for most of us. Now we wait for the king while we sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Its going to be east of 18z, 4mb weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Little more than slightly. You can see it in the height fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks to go over or just east of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's just not the pattern for a bomb like that. At worst it's anafrontal type stuff IMO. Even that isn't high confidence. The euro op digs the s/w over the coastal Gulf of Mexico and then pumps up heights in the east so that it kind of phases with the trough to the north. The GFS isn't too far off, but the s/w is sort of cutoff from the trough to the north and cannot amplfy enough to develop a low.Dug this up from yesterday. To help an amateur understand, what has changed since this post on the models/depicted pattern that is now allowing this thing to amplify into something more than "at worst...anafrontal type stuff"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 gfs sticking with the further east position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks to go over or just east of the BM.blind squirrel for once would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Dug this up from yesterday. To help an amateur understand, what has changed since this post on the models/depicted pattern that is now allowing this thing to amplify into something more than "at worst...anafrontal type stuff"? Well the ridging out west and the s/w interactions all changed. The s/w in MO was also stronger this go around too. Combine that and it's not a bomb, but a good coastal. It only takes a tweak here and a tweak there to cause a better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Heights were lower out west hence further east track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Para looks decent. Para hones in closer, old gfs goes a bit east to be close to para. Euro will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 2nd shortwave diving in almost acts as a kicker on this GFS run...this is sort of what I was describing before...if there isn't much interaction between the two and minimal phasing, then the progressive pattern sort of makes the 2nd shortwave act as a kicker rather than an amplifying agent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Man, this run is an I 95 weenie's dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 2nd shortwave diving in almost acts as a kicker on this GFS run...this is sort of what I was describing before...if there isn't much interaction between the two and minimal phasing, then the progressive pattern sort of makes the 2nd shortwave act as a kicker rather than an amplifying agent. Yeah we lose the ridge amplitude a bit and that second s/w boots the first one. Also, the heights ahead of the first one weren't as sharp and you end up with a conbined less amped solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 General 6-10", heaviest throughout the southern half of ORH CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well the ridging out west and the s/w interactions all changed. The s/w in MO was also stronger this go around too. Combine that and it's not a bomb, but a good coastal. It only takes a tweak here and a tweak there to cause a better solution.Thanks for the explanation. It's cool to see how even small tweaks in the setup lead to larger scale changes overall. It will be interesting to see this evolve. Even if for the benefit of eastern areas, this did pass over ACK or the BM, wouldn't the NE flow off the Atlantic torch the BL for the CP? It is November afterall. Or does the fact that this isn't a wrapped up bomb help? I bet there would be a good coastal front to follow in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 great sign. some better mid level track too. It held serve, which leads me to believe euro was over amped. expect it to come east/se overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 General 6-10", heaviest throughout the southern half of ORH CO. Thats a great track for a lot of interests on this forum. Decent changes in our favor on that run. Euro will be interesting. West trend seems to have halted on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 FWIW, The 0z Para GFS came west from 18z.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thanks for the explanation. It's cool to see how even small tweaks in the setup lead to larger scale changes overall. It will be interesting to see this evolve. Even if for the benefit of eastern areas, this did pass over ACK or the BM, wouldn't the NE flow off the Atlantic torch the BL for the CP? It is November afterall. Or does the fact that this isn't a wrapped up bomb help? I bet there would be a good coastal front to follow in that scenario. Of this takes a track SE of ACK, then the CF is pinned near BOS and you'll have no taint at all. Winds will be north where you are. Also take note what Will said. If you get less of an interaction of the s/w in MO and the one over the SE, that MO S/W will mess around with the winds and boot the first one further east. The progressive nature of the flow actually helps us in this way if you want snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 FWIW, The 0z Para GFS came west from 18z.............. Goes over the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That lead s/w departing the NE also leaves a last minute footprint on the height field, flattening it ever so slightly at hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Of this takes a track SE of ACK, then the CF is pinned near BOS and you'll have no taint at all. Winds will be north where you are. Also take note what Will said. If you get less of an interaction of the s/w in MO and the one over the SE, that MO S/W will mess around with the winds and boot the first one further east. The progressive nature of the flow actually helps us in this way if you want snow here. Thanks again. That all makes sense. However we manage to keep the wind more northerly helps tremendously so early in the season. Or being on the right side of the gradient in a swfe pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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