CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yes it looked west at 60 but no good phase and a weak solution. Toss it. Nam is just terrible in this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I would not place any stock into what the Nam shows at any time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yes Backlash obviously favors orographically enhanced areas but it can happen it's not impossible. But yes I agree you're playing with house money and the front end thump is what you need to really bank on and consider the backlash icing on the cake . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I would not place any stock into what the Nam shows at any time frame Stop equivocating....be a tad clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Have you all lost yur fukkin minds?! It's the NAM past a few hours. It's doody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Will they ever fix the nam or is this the best they can do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Bruce Schwoegler was big into backlash. How did that work out for him? I remember my Dad yelling at him on the T.V. Must have screwed up some forecasts in his day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Have you all lost yur fukkin minds?! It's the NAM past a few hours. It's doody. Something to talk about until the GFS starts running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Stop equivocating....be a tad clearer. They should flip flop the Nam and GFS start times or take it offline completely then we can just ignore it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Bruce Schwoegler was big into backlash. How did that work out for him? I remember my Dad yelling at him on the T.V. Must have screwed up some forecasts in his day. He was the Bastardi of Boston TV mets. Loved his enthusiasm as a kid but Harvey Leonard would always bring me back to earth and was usually correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Bruce Schwoegler's best gaffes... 1. Saying a hurricane was moving on land in sne due to SE winds at MWN steering the system..oy vey! 2. Calling for 30-40 inches in Boston right on the doorstep of a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That's really it. NAM is something to talk about and that's about it. A very light appetizer that barely wets you're appetite as we wait for the main courses. Or maybe the GFS is like the soup and salad and the Euro is the main course lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What did you get in XMAS 2002? How about the Feb 26 2010 Snowicane? Did you change back to snow on that one as it pulled out? I was living in Cambridge for Xmas 2002 and don't remember but 2/26/10 was no more than an additional coating or so to end out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Bruce Schwoegler's best gaffes... 1. Saying a hurricane was moving on land in sne due to SE winds at MWN steering the system..oy vey! 2. Calling for 30-40 inches in Boston right on the doorstep of a rainstorm. That March 2001 event through many for a loop. Which hurricane was that? LOL Edouard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'd hit the NAM, locations in mobile finally, thanks WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Bruce Schwoegler's best gaffes... 1. Saying a hurricane was moving on land in sne due to SE winds at MWN steering the system..oy vey! 2. Calling for 30-40 inches in Boston right on the doorstep of a rainstorm. Honestly I can't remember much more than a tall chubby guy with lighter hair if I'm correct that would get extremely excitable. My pops would get really annoyed when he overhyped something and usually the whole house would know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Bruce Schwoegler's best gaffes... 1. Saying a hurricane was moving on land in sne due to SE winds at MWN steering the system..oy vey! 2. Calling for 30-40 inches in Boston right on the doorstep of a rainstorm. With Don Kent sitting home watching and doing a face palm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That March 2001 event through many for a loop. Which hurricane was that? LOL Edouard? No that one Barry screwed up. It was I. The early 1970s. My weenie friend and I would get together to watch the late wx...all 3 stations then. See how deprived we were before the internet? Anyway we both cracked up over Bruce's idiocy often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Honestly I can't remember much more than a tall chubby guy with lighter hair if I'm correct that would get extremely excitable. My pops would get really annoyed when he overhyped something and usually the whole house would know it.WBZ 11PM News - 12/19/95: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Man alive is the RGEM flat at 48 hours...even flatter than the NAM...I did not expect that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Man alive is the RGEM flat at 48 hours...even flatter than the NAM...I did not expect that I just noticed that, pretty bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Man alive is the RGEM flat at 48 hours...even flatter than the NAM...I did not expect that And considering that it usually has a NW bias in it's LR, that's worth noting... To be fair, RGEM has been terrible in the last few events that we had, but it's still a much more reliable piece of guidance than the NAM and having it agree with it(or at least extrapolated to agree) does lend it a shred of credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 And considering that it usually has a NW bias in it's LR, that's worth noting... To be fair, RGEM has been terrible in the last few events that we had, but it's still a much more reliable piece of guidance than the NAM and having it agree with it(or at least extrapolated to agree) does lend it a shred of credence. The RGEM every once in awhile is flat at 48 but its usually more the case on events where all globals are fairly far offshore and misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Right or wrong, I will never ever ever forgive the NAM for completely vomiting on itself on 2/16. A 6hr forecast of complete defecation on itself. Piece of crap model for cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You needed to post that in order to comfort your subconscience.Ha. I get what you're saying. However until the euro moves that way I will firmly believe this is not going to whiff. Ack track as others have said. Just enjoy the early season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 C'mon guys, pick up your game or don't post...lots of posts not adding much. I'm not saying this to be mean, but this is supposed to be an analysis thread. Not an "i hope this happens for MBY" thread. I'm not stopping anyone from starting a thread for that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ha. I get what you're saying. However until the euro moves that way I will firmly believe this is not going to whiff. Ack track as others have said. Just enjoy the early season snow. I don't think so either, but it was nice to finally see the inexorable drift westward of guidance met with some resistance from a viable source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I don't understand why the NAM doesn't go bonkers with this into Atlantic City. I would expect something absurd from this model. Weird to see it flatter than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 C'mon guys, pick up your game or don't post...lots of posts not adding much. I'm not saying this to be mean, but this is supposed to be an analysis thread. Not an "i hope this happens for MBY" thread. I'm not stopping anyone from starting a thread for that stuff. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44957-1126-272014-coastal-storm-banter/ We do this on another wxboard that I help moderate, have a thread for analysis/models and one for banter/forecasts and it works pretty well usually, so I figured I'd make a storm banter thread and we'll give it a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 I don't understand why the NAM doesn't go bonkers with this into Atlantic City. I would expect something absurd from this model. Weird to see it flatter than the globals. It's still kind of early...remember even in the Feb 2013 blizzard it was flat until about 48 hours out and then it started doing crap like jackpotting N NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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