40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Even being in the jackpot area (Im 25 miles NNW of Dendrite) this thing is chugging along. So Maybe 6 hours of good snow? I don't think we will see totals over a foot, do you? In the deformation zone to the nw of the H7 low, I could see some 12-15" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That doesn't change the fact there will be chronic bellyaching on here for the next 2 weeks as we get torched Better then than xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That doesn't change the fact there will be chronic bellyaching on here for the next 2 weeks as we get torchedlol highly doubtful we torch for two weeks, where the heck does that hyperbole come from. I mean AN yo yo with cold seems plausible but 2 week torch, not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I thought it couldn't snow in Nov with a progressive system. What's this the 3rd one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I thought it couldn't snow in Nov with a progressive system. What's this the 3rd one? My favorite is this recent trend: "Storm is staying east because there is no blocking" followed by "Storm is coming up the coast because there's no blocking" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Time and time again model runs don't change. With three days to go time "locked". Statements with absolutes are not believable. Three words, "as presently modelled" goes along way keeping the convo real. Been burnt to many times. 00Z could roll out as a 2 foot 18 hour blitz starting Thu afternoon. (just sayin) Critical time is soon, track, QPF and temp profiles become apparent thus a higher percentage of accurate forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nov 27th 2002 was a great storm, over performer. Ended up with 7.5" after a forecast of 2-4" under WWA, not bad. Almost to the day same as this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My favorite is this recent trend: "Storm is staying east because there is no blocking" followed by "Storm is coming up the coast because there's no blocking"great AFD by Box, read it if you haven't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 My favorite is this recent trend: "Storm is staying east because there is no blocking" followed by "Storm is coming up the coast because there's no blocking" Its kind of a paradox at times...it all depends on how the storm is developing. Lack of blocking can caused a phased storm to just keep going to town and rip straight N...whereas a block would "force" it underneath. But I think in an unphased situation, the lack of blocking and progressiveness helps it go more east...whereas a blocked flow would slow things down and allow a phase to occur. The problem is we don't really know if this is a good phase yet. It's a really difficult forecast because of this. But it also creates a lot of the weenie'isms where you can use either argument to support which solution you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 "as presently modelled" ... I like that. Whenever you talk to folks (outside of the met/weather enth. circle) about a potential snowstorm, the first question you get asked is "How much?" Even if its 5 or 6 or 7 days out. I don't think people realize how much variance there can be hour to hour, day to day as the storm draws near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Do we think it's still snowing Thursday morning, or is over before dawn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I have learned from experience that a perfect track 11/26 still is a long shot for snow around mby. To get decent snow I need a weak but juicy system running out under me ala 11/29/95. The day before that system was very warm btw-60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If this passes just E of or over the Cape I can see a place like Greenfield thumping out a solid 4-6" followed by a few hours of freezing drizzle. Seen that scenario plenty around here. MPM and the higher hills get 6-8" with a little taint. Confident that plowable snow is on the way for NW MA. I'm also confident that it will be heavy snow to move. Looks like a very quick hitter too. 8 hours of precip? Winter comin' early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Far from locked in. Seems like people are posting in definites already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Far from locked in. Seems like people are posting in definites already.didn't you just do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I have learned from experience that a perfect track 11/26 still is a long shot for snow around mby. To get decent snow I need a weak but juicy system running out under me ala 11/29/95. The day before that system was very warm btw-60s. You just need a good airmass. It's not cold enough aloft and we are getting strong WAA as the precip occurs. Not the best recipe for you and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Alb is forecasting rain Wed and snow Wed night. Surprised they don't mention any snow Wed. At this point I would say rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 didn't you just do that? lol, We have not even stopped the west trend yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 FWIW(Very little at this range), SREFS look fantastic for pretty much everyone outside of the immediate coastal plain re. track. Not a huge lean to the west either which is nice to see, really, most of the lean is to the north which just indicates timing differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Guess we will have to wait and see. There seems to be a considerable difference between a track E of ACK, one over the Cape, one over Boston, etc. I still have difficulty understanding how anyone east of the Berkshires gets significant snowfall and even there it doesn't seem to be close to being guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm from the Philly forum up here in Bretton Woods, NH. Couple of inches of frozen snow/sleet on the ground here. How does it look up this for Wednesday-Thursday? NWS doesn't seem enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I thought we stopped taking the the SREFS until further notice.. nevermind 72 hours out. Yikes. I can't complain about the euro track verbatim given the timw of year. If this was February I'd be somewhat bummed..but any snow should be considered a bonus on the coastal plain in November. The fact that we are getting coastals is also a good sign heading into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 FWIW(Very little at this range), SREFS look fantastic for pretty much everyone outside of the immediate coastal plain re. track. Not a huge lean to the west either which is nice to see, really, most of the lean is to the north which just indicates timing differences. The low is moving to the NNE-NE though. Spread to the NW of the low center would be "west" of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The low is moving to the NNE-NE though. Spread to the NW of the low center would be "west" of the track. Look at the placement of the spread though, especially in the second picture, it's almost due north and pointing in the same direction as the mean low. Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but to me, that's suggesting the same general track at a different time and notsomuch a different track. We'll get a better idea when the plumes come out, but SouthCoastMA makes a good point in that we're wasting our time talking about the SREFS at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Mean qpf is over an inch for almost all of sne FWIW(Very little at this range), SREFS look fantastic for pretty much everyone outside of the immediate coastal plain re. track. Not a huge lean to the west either which is nice to see, really, most of the lean is to the north which just indicates timing differences. srefs 1.gif srefs 2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I thought we stopped taking the the SREFS until further notice In a utopian weather forum this would be a reality. Unfortunately we still sometimes discuss the NAM/SREFs past 36-48hr out of shear boredom as we wait for the varsity models to get on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm from the Philly forum up here in Bretton Woods, NH. Couple of inches of frozen snow/sleet on the ground here. How does it look up this for Wednesday-Thursday? NWS doesn't seem enthused. crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Look at the placement of the spread though, especially in the second picture, it's almost due north and pointing in the same direction as the mean low. Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but to me, that's suggesting the same general track at a different time and notsomuch a different track. We'll get a better idea when the plumes come out, but SouthCoastMA makes a good point in that we're wasting our time talking about the SREFS at this hour. I'm not wasting my time. I haven't bothered looking for them. I'm just pointing out that some of that spread looks west of the track to me. It could have the low over Bermuda or James Bay and I wouldn't care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 looking at the text output from the European model, it looks as though about an inch of precipitation falls at BDLwith the 850 temps below - 2 with surface temps around 33 degrees. personally I would argue that with those rates we would probably drop down to freezing or slightly below. 850 then spikes all the way to + 7 with surface temps rising to about 34 before temperatures crash down into the upper twenties with some backlash precipitation. based on that data here in this neck of the woods I would probably go with a four to eight or five to nine thump with a flip to rain followed by a backlash changeover with an additional inch or two with falling temps. of course if the storm track continues west things could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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