Connecticut Appleman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Any sense of when the precip starts coming into southern new england? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah, I'm supposed to be driving from western NJ to VA Beach on Wednesday. Not so worried (obviously) once nearing the Del Marva with this, but before hand, that's 100 miles spent in possible paste snow if using these colder runs. Where in jersey are you starting from? I have the same worries but heading to jersey from Boston and more worried later in the trip given start times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Any sense of when the precip starts coming into southern new england? Right now it looks like Wednesday afternoon ...first S then working N..should be coming down everywhere by 4 or 5, but first S in CT/RI and SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Everyone's posts are getting deleted by multiple mods if they aren't constructive...the banterish posts can either posted in the banter thread or someone can start a special storm banter thread. Stricter the better. Wishcasting can be deleted too, pretty please. I just read the last 15 pages in a row. Boy it was painful. Never forecast over 1' when mid levels are west....6-10" tops. I'd go 2-5" here and 6-10" west of 495 Good point here. Quick system means limited amounts. I could see potential terrain enhanced bringing heavier totals locally, also some instability as tip mentioned earlier today. I believe the euro is definitely too amped and west. GFS probably too far offshore. I'd go with a track between cape and benchmark right now. I'd lean close to a surface low somewhere over ACK or MVY at this time frame. I think many coastal areas are not looking good. However, coastal front tracking will be interesting for us as points during the storm. I could see wet streets in BOS and good amounts in Andover at school. Still too far out but I believe euro will come east tonight and be a little less amped. Models should start to converge to a consensus soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Stricter the better. Wishcasting can be deleted too, pretty please. I just read the last 15 pages in a row. Boy it was painful. Good point here. Quick system means limited amounts. I could see potential terrain enhanced bringing heavier totals locally, also some instability as tip mentioned earlier today. I believe the euro is definitely too amped and west. GFS probably too far offshore. I'd go with a track between cape and benchmark right now. I'd lean close to a surface low somewhere over ACK or MVY at this time frame. I think many coastal areas are not looking good. However, coastal front tracking will be interesting for us as points during the storm. I could see wet streets in BOS and good amounts in Andover at school. Still too far out but I believe euro will come east tonight and be a little less amped. Models should start to converge to a consensus soon. I think this will track anywhere from the CC canal to about Hyannis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The GFS QPF charts put out three, separate 3-hourly totals exceeding .5" liq equiv. -- so you're outguessing the output? Okay, but those totals are completely acceptable considering this system's source/origin, combined with all the mechanics I've be observing with this thing. And actually, the synoptic evolution at 700mb as provided by NCEP's Model and Analysis page show RH exceed 70% west of PVD/BOS line the whole time the low makes it's pass... Not sure what you are looking at. Models seem to overestimate QPF with dryslots above 700mb. Also some of that QPF is wasted on mixed precip. I don't know why it continues , but it's been a known bias when it comes to models forecasting too much snow with dry air above 700mb. Of course I could be wrong and the models all go east. The GFS is more aggressive with ORH kissing double digits. I'm speaking more of the euro. Don't forget 700mb temps of -6 or even -8 aren't gonna give you squat when it's dry above that layer. Again this is more of a solution closer to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think this will track anywhere from the CC canal to about Falmouth. That's a difference of like three miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 No seriously - I'd double Scott's totals. wtf -I was just joshinI don't think I would go that high at this point...but what do I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That's a difference of like three miles. I meant Hyannis....damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Where in jersey are you starting from? I have the same worries but heading to jersey from Boston and more worried later in the trip given start times. I think she lives in Williamstown NJ... It's basically in the middle of the state, southern section. , it should be either wet snow on Wednesday, or transitioning to that. it'll probably be okay, but with demography being heavy to begin with and misting windy schit on the roads still makes it harry. Also, the bridge-tunnel system is a gamble if you get all the way down to the dip of the Del M and they've gone and closed the f'er... That's a seriously f-up butt bang scenario to have to back track 100 miles to go around the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I meant Hyannis....damn.awesome,I totally lold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Stricter the better. Wishcasting can be deleted too, pretty please. I just read the last 15 pages in a row. Boy it was painful. Good point here. Quick system means limited amounts. I could see potential terrain enhanced bringing heavier totals locally, also some instability as tip mentioned earlier today. I believe the euro is definitely too amped and west. GFS probably too far offshore. I'd go with a track between cape and benchmark right now. I'd lean close to a surface low somewhere over ACK or MVY at this time frame. I think many coastal areas are not looking good. However, coastal front tracking will be interesting for us as points during the storm. I could see wet streets in BOS and good amounts in Andover at school. Still too far out but I believe euro will come east tonight and be a little less amped. Models should start to converge to a consensus soon. The euro has been having problems the last few years being too amped especially so when the NAO has been positive, I'm inclined to believe it is again having the same issue but with the ridge being so far west off the west coast I can buy the track may be closer than the GFS shows even if only a partial phase happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 awesome,I totally lold Brain freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Models seem to overestimate QPF with dryslots above 700mb. Also some of that QPF is wasted on mixed precip. I don't know why it continues , but it's been a known bias when it comes to models forecasting too much snow with dry air above 700mb. Of course I could be wrong and the models all go east. The GFS is more aggressive with ORH kissing double digits. I'm speaking more of the euro. Don't forget 700mb temps of -6 or even -8 aren't gonna give you squat when it's dry above that layer. Again this is more of a solution closer to the euro. Yeah, sure model type is paramount here - ha. I'm not completely sold on that west positioning of the Euro, tho. Probably get burned here, but we're at D4, so it should really be on this thing .. yet, it does still subtly smack of its dig bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Elbow to Ack with a lean on ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah, sure model type is paramount here - ha. I'm not completely sold on that west positioning of the Euro, tho. Probably get burned here, but we're at D4, so it should really be on this thing .. yet, it does still subtly smack of its dig bias. Yeah my guess is that it ticks east. Of course confidence on that isn't exactly high based in recent trends. And by the way, I don't disagree with you regarding WCB dumping. That could be hellacious for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 50 miles west of BM. I still think that kicker over the N Plains is not being played up enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think she lives in Williamstown NJ... It's basically in the middle of the state, southern section. , it should be either wet snow on Wednesday, or transitioning to that. it'll probably be okay, but with demography being heavy to begin with and misting windy schit on the roads still makes it harry. Also, the bridge-tunnel system is a gamble if you get all the way down to the dip of the Del M and they've gone and closed the f'er... That's a seriously f-up butt bang scenario to have to back track 100 miles to go around the Bay. My destination is north of there. Contemplating leaving 9pm Tuesday night and get a place on the jersey side (teaneck marriott ) and do the final easy leg Wednesday morning. Alternatively leaving very early Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Elbow to Ack with a lean on ACK EURO is over Boston or just west, GFS is just east of ACK.....pretty sure this goes over the cape. Congrats, Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 rain/snow mixture for ORH? How can it be a significant snowfall at this time of year without an arctic high to our north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 EURO is over Boston or just west, GFS is just east of ACK.....pretty sure this goes over the cape. Congrats, Dendrite. A nice primer for the season, Ray. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Reading the discussion out of Boston it does appear that they think there may be a real possibility of significant snow inland, but I'm having a hard time understanding where the cold air is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 EURO is over Boston or just west, GFS is just east of ACK.....pretty sure this goes over the cape. Congrats, Dendrite. I'd take that track and run. But, I'm not convinced the EC doesn't tick a smidge west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A nice primer for the season, Ray. No worries. I'll take a few inches of snow. i did start to get my hopes up yesterday, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The chances of it going over the Cape are very low. Again, watch the clipper kicker over the n plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 EURO is over Boston or just west, GFS is just east of ACK.....pretty sure this goes over the cape. Congrats, Dendrite. And so it begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 And so it begins You like that? There is more where that came from. There will not be a shortage of events this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You like that? There is more where that came from. There will not be a shortage of events this season. I agree, I usually can get in on some of those as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 EURO is over Boston or just west, GFS is just east of ACK.....pretty sure this goes over the cape. Congrats, Dendrite. Even being in the jackpot area (Im 25 miles NNW of Dendrite) this thing is chugging along. So Maybe 6 hours of good snow? I don't think we will see totals over a foot, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You like that? There is more where that came from. There will not be a shortage of events this season. That doesn't change the fact there will be chronic bellyaching on here for the next 2 weeks as we get torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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