dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Weenie rule is to start high and can always adjust higher if need be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Don't forget this will thump and dry slot quick. Don't get Matt Noyes and think QPF equals snow like he did in Feb 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We need another start like 06-07 to knock the weenies back to reality. Yup boating on Long Lake in Maine in early January that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah mixed in with fantasies.meh, nothing bad, lots of solutions possible just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Everyone's posts are getting deleted by multiple mods if they aren't constructive...the banterish posts can either posted in the banter thread or someone can start a special storm banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 And now, for your convenience and pleasure, intermission...aka the dead zone.reminisce here with some snow aerial pics from NOHRSC, interesting way they determine w/ehttp://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowsurvey/photos/index.html?year=2005&survey=4&sort=line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Double? Well it's a first guess not final like 3 days out. Understand the conservative measure, but I'm seeing things differently. This system ...even in a westward Euro track could snow 3 or 4" per hour prior to a flip with those jet mechanics being so immense. The 500mb left exit region collocates with a ginormous positive anomaly 300mb wind field/right entrance...That's ...like, what do we have say?! My god -- thunderstorms would be envious of that. You could be +1C at 850 and snowing 1/16th of mile parachute visibility with occasional lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This should be a real thump inland. I don't see the need for fretting out that way. This has the look of doing "well" from near Dave up through Dendrite. Obviously berks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Meh. I'll eat crow if that solution verifies, but it's smelling like a turd. The new GFS has the Navy NOGAPS on it's side, though. That may lead to fun stress down the road when that becomes the operational GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Understand the conservative measure, but I'm seeing things differently. This system ...even in a westward Euro track could snow 3 or 4" per hour prior to a flip with those jet mechanics being so immense. The 500mb left exit region collocates with a ginormous positive anomaly 300mb wind field/right entrance...That's ...like, what do we have say?! My god -- thunderstorms would be envious of that. You could be +1C at 850 and snowing 1/16th of mile parachute visibility with occasional lightning. I agree, but it may tip as well quickly. 14" at ORH? Even the GFS won't do that. Respect the dryslot evident from 700-500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This should be a real thump inland. I don't see the need for fretting out that way. This has the look of doing "well" from near Dave up through Dendrite. Obviously berks too. I think interior here to SR/Surgarloaf and ponits north does as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The new GFS has the Navy NOGAPS on it's side, though. That may lead to fun stress down the road when that becomes the operational GFS. That's what bothers me. I won't get worked up from one example, but that's the model replacing the old GFS so I would hope it does better with east coast cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think interior here to SR/Surgarloaf and ponits north does as well Those areas will do awesome. You too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 I agree, but it may tip as well quickly. 14" at ORH? Even the GFS won't do that. Respect the dryslot evident from 700-500mb. There could be something like 6-8" at ORH over to ASH and then a hellacious pellet-fest for about 2-3 hours before another flip to ZR and possibly cold rain depending on exact track....if it was something to closer to the Euro. One thing we may have to watch as we get closer, is if models start "seeing" that weenie high developing out ahead of it...it could help feed in some drier air and lower the temps some both in mid-levels and at sfc...so I wouldn't be shocked if the solutions cooled slightly with even the same tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well OT but the para has a nice blizzard d13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The para GFS is continuing to make subtle trends to the west which in a way is better then some of these wilder swings on the models, Not as stressful........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Those areas will do awesome. You too. One hell of a front end thump being modeled in such a short period so taint looks like it would be minimal right now up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Any chance at some backend snows on the euro? Thought I saw that mentioned somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 One hell of a front end thump being modeled in such a short period so taint looks like it would be minimal right now up this wayHeading down to Point Lookout for thanksgiving. Be nice to see some snow on the coast while were snug as a bug in the cabin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Taken verbatim the dry slot stays E of a PVD/BOS line. Course, that is the GFS... but he GFS QPF totals would supper 14" if it snows long enough at ORH with ease. Certainly will be interesting to see how this plays out. I'm siding colder though...with dynamically assisted, very intense thermal packing between 900 and 800mb levels where +4C is bunched up again -4C across unusually short distances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 There could be something like 6-8" at ORH over to ASH and then a hellacious pellet-fest for about 2-3 hours before another flip to ZR and possibly cold rain depending on exact track....if it was something to closer to the Euro. One thing we may have to watch as we get closer, is if models start "seeing" that weenie high developing out ahead of it...it could help feed in some drier air and lower the temps some both in mid-levels and at sfc...so I wouldn't be shocked if the solutions cooled slightly with even the same tracks. With 925 staying cold, I could see that happening. It won't be snow to rain out that way, that's for sure. Big transition zone if the euro happened. I could see this literally being a 6 hr dump and then mix of IP/FZRA/FZDZ etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Man this is going to be brutal this winter. Ryan 4" Kevin 5" ORH 7". Ray 4". First guess. No one lives west of Worcester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 John it dries out above 700 quickly after 3z. At least that was 12z and I assume 18z accentuates that even more if mid level lows went west. The temp profile below that is tough to support more than crappy flakes or FZDZ until the mid level low moves east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 There could be something like 6-8" at ORH over to ASH and then a hellacious pellet-fest for about 2-3 hours before another flip to ZR and possibly cold rain depending on exact track....if it was something to closer to the Euro. One thing we may have to watch as we get closer, is if models start "seeing" that weenie high developing out ahead of it...it could help feed in some drier air and lower the temps some both in mid-levels and at sfc...so I wouldn't be shocked if the solutions cooled slightly with even the same tracks. Watch them WBs guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Those areas will do awesome. You too. Tamarak-land gets ripped on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Never forecast over 1' when mid levels are west....6-10" tops. I'd go 2-5" here and 6-10" west of 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Tamarak-land gets ripped on the EC. Most certainly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What a nightmare for travel,especially if hubs are effected Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 John it dries out above 700 quickly after 3z. At least that was 12z and I assume 18z accentuates that even more if mid level lows went west. The temp profile below that is tough to support more than crappy flakes or FZDZ until the mid level low moves east again. The GFS QPF charts put out three, separate 3-hourly totals exceeding .5" liq equiv. -- so you're outguessing the output? Okay, but those totals are completely acceptable considering this system's source/origin, combined with all the mechanics I've be observing with this thing. And actually, the synoptic evolution at 700mb as provided by NCEP's Model and Analysis page show RH exceed 70% west of PVD/BOS line the whole time the low makes it's pass... Not sure what you are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What a nightmare for travel,especially if hubs are effected Wed Yeah, I'm supposed to be driving from western NJ to VA Beach on Wednesday. Not so worried (obviously) once nearing the Del Marva with this, but before hand, that's 100 miles spent in possible paste snow if using these colder runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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