CT Valley Snowman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lol...I think that was a week ago. Yes the euro will likely shift east but IMHO not a lot. THe storm system in the midwest is happening right now not a week ago and I though that looked further west a couple of days ago it was progged to go over Illinois but now it looks more like Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just because the new gfs may be off on this storm does not make the model a piece of crap as a whole. We have yet to learn how it handles east coast cyclogenesis to see its tendencies. My personal opinion as a to this storm is I think the euro is over amplifying this thing as we have seen in the past. I won't 100% discount what it showing but I would weigh it in with other guidance right now. I would still rely heavily on the ensembles right now until we get with 48h or so and than we can start taking the deterministic models more seriously. Well we'll have to see. Right now the para is a eastern outlier but it's starting to come to the other guidance. I would have hoped it would lead rather than follow but we'll see come verification time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just because the new gfs may be off on this storm does not make the model a piece of crap as a whole. We have yet to learn how it handles east coast cyclogenesis to see its tendencies. My personal opinion as a to this storm is I think the euro is over amplifying this thing as we have seen in the past. I won't 100% discount what it showing but I would weigh it in with other guidance right now. I would still rely heavily on the ensembles right now until we get with 48h or so and than we can start taking the deterministic models more seriously. I was thinking the Euro was too amped until I looked at the euro ensemble members. Pretty good cluster near the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 THe storm system in the midwest is happening right now not a week ago and I though that looked further west a couple of days ago it was progged to go over Illinois but now it looks more like Indiana. Well everything shifted east and the torch truncated by a day. I'm not sure the situations are applicable though. Over the long haul on coastals, euro has kicked butt. The glaring exception is Boxing Day 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This crappy ridge ahead of it won't help matters A better antecedent air mass would really help but whatevs This will be a long season for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I was thinking the Euro was too amped until I looked at the euro ensemble members. Pretty good cluster near the op. Half near the op and the other half not..That's a 50/50 split correct? So how can one be favored? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 I was thinking the Euro was too amped until I looked at the euro ensemble members. Pretty good cluster near the op. The larger cluster still looked to the east though, at least on the 5H spaghetti plots (i didn't look at the sfc low plots, i find those cumbersome)...but there's def more west members than before. So that still makes me think eventually the OP will tick back east, but if it holds course again at 00z or even comes further west, then that idea may be obsolete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I was thinking the Euro was too amped until I looked at the euro ensemble members. Pretty good cluster near the op. Do you think it's an E/W system where west of CT river do better then east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 No I did not. WTF? You did say it. I remember you posting these coastal lows almost always trend east the last 24. You made it in reference to both tropical systems and coastals..Nice though..Appreciate it There are rarely absolutes in meteorology. This could hold serve, trend east, or tickle west at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Meh. I'll eat crow if that solution verifies, but it's smelling like a turd. We've increased the resolution (spatially and temporally) but really have done nothing to improve what goes into it or the computing power we run it with. Color me skeptical as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Do you think it's an E/W system where west of CT river do better then east? For the most part, yes, but there's also a N to S gradient in there I think. Probably like WNW to ESE in terms of totals as guidance stands right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well we'll have to see. Right now the para is a eastern outlier but it's starting to come to the other guidance. I would have hoped it would lead rather than follow but we'll see come verification time.. Correct but if you'll notice it hasn't made any drastic changes. It's been a steady move westward. It could be a new tendency or bias with east coast storms. Still does not make the model garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 For the most part, yes, but there's also a N to S gradient in there I think. Probably like WNW to ESE in terms of totals as guidance stands right now. I'll be in West Hartford for turkey day so I'm alerting my family for what impact this will have on our festivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The larger cluster still looked to the east though, at least on the 5H spaghetti plots (i didn't look at the sfc low plots, i find those cumbersome)...but there's def more west members than before. So that still makes me think eventually the OP will tick back east, but if it holds course again at 00z or even comes further west, then that idea may be obsolete. Looking at SLP the biggest cluster is definitely the western one near the op. It's pretty impressive to be honest. There aren't many members near the ensemble mean lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Man with that mid-level look, that's a Gods Country to Dendrite crushing band. I think Benchmark 40/70 was calling for that a couple days ago. I was thinking he had said the same thing. Too bad we're 3 days out in that. EC and everything else going west. Ingestion of better sampled data? If so, I won't see why this might not continue coming west. I'm sure Will said that...lol. You're unraveling early this year. LOL I was thinking the Euro was too amped until I looked at the euro ensemble members. Pretty good cluster near the op. When you say "amped" are you speaking of strength or track or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just remember that it's November. 3 years ago we were entering the depths of hell and now we have a legit winter threat. Good signs hopefully going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I was thinking he had said the same thing. Too bad we're 3 days out in that. EC and everything else going west. Ingestion of better sampled data? If so, I won't see why this might not continue coming west. LOL When you say "amped" are you speaking of strength or track or both? I meant close to the coast - not really strength. Sorry wasn't very clear there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 There's people on Twitter trying to argue that the 18z GFS didn't make any shift at all and in fact the GFS hasn't made any shifts at all either That's a big reason why I don't post a lot of stuff on Twitter, end up dealing with people who have no idea what they're doing and think they're god(plus it's really hard to forecast in 160 characters or less). Anyway, I think tonight at 0z is when we start to get a clearer idea of what we're looking at. If we see the EURO continuing to move west and see other guidance continuing to move towards it, I think we can start to eliminate the idea of an eastern track considering we'll be inside 72 hours at that point. If we see the current spread hold, onto the 12z runs tomorrow, if we see a shift back east by guidance, then we're back where we were a few cycles ago with a snowstorm for most and the highest accumulations S and E. For now though, just have to wait for the next runs I think and leave all options on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Now I'm Snow to Rain to Snow on the 18z GFS. Here we go. Snowstorm to Rainstorm Northern RI Model Watching Special. Euro can suck my yardstick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nice DD on the GFS, wetbulbs stay below 30 for a lot west of 95. Impressive VVs. Inland from sayJeff, Dendrite,ORH, Kevin, MPM NW hills will stay all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just remember that it's November. 3 years ago we were entering the depths of hell and now we have a legit winter threat. Good signs hopefully going forward +Yeah I take the holistic perspective, too, that we started getting delivered significant coastals in October and now we are getting our 3rd on the season. If snows this week it will be nice for a lot of folks, but ...it's just as likely to be down to bare ground before we get a "snow pack" (so to speak). Or not ... point is, having the threat on the table is almost a phew moment... Also good years tend to find ways to storm... even better? They storm cold. The coastal in october were cold relative to climo, and this one certainly appears that way. I also disagree that the antecedent air mass is "rotted".... How so? Come Wednesday morning a fresh cfropa has occurred in the last 24 hours, and you got sub 850s clear to the CC Canal. That is in fact a FRESH air mass... That said, this is a bit of needle threader (like most Miller A's are), but I suspect that with exotic VV associated with the left exit/right entrance coupled jet fields aloft, that we're going to see some incredible dynamic cooling potential just west of the baroclinic axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Man this is going to be brutal this winter. Ryan 4" Kevin 5" ORH 7". Ray 4". First guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 +Yeah I take the holistic perspective, too, that we started getting delivered significant coastals in October and now we are getting our 3rd on the season. If snows this week it will be nice for a lot of folks, but ...it's just as likely to be down to bare ground before we get a "snow pack" (so to speak). Or not ... point is, having the threat on the table is almost a phew moment... Also good years tend to find ways to storm... even better? They storm cold. The coastal in october were cold relative to climo, and this one certainly appears that way. I also disagree that the antecedent air mass is "rotted".... How so? Come Wednesday morning a fresh cfropa has occurred in the last 24 hours, and you got sub 850s clear to the CC Canal. That is in fact a FRESH air mass... That said, this is a bit of needle threader (like most Miller A's are), but I suspect that with exotic VV associated with the left exit/right entrance coupled jet fields aloft, that we're going to see some incredible dynamic cooling potential just west of the baroclinic axis. Great Points Tip...maybe this season is one of those years that finds a way to Snow more times than not. Sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 No seriously - I'd double Scott's totals. wtf - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Man this is going to be brutal this winter. Ryan 4" Kevin 5" ORH 7". Ray 4". First guess.huh? Seems lots of good discussion and questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 No seriously - I'd double Scott's totals. wtf -Double? Well it's a first guess not final like 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 No seriously - I'd double Scott's totals. wtf -start low work up,I cut you by a 1/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 huh? Seems lots of good discussion and questions. Yeah mixed in with fantasies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 No surprise the 18z GEFS is west as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just remember that it's November. 3 years ago we were entering the depths of hell and now we have a legit winter threat. Good signs hopefully going forward. We need another start like 06-07 to knock the weenies back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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