RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's gonna be a quick hitting power punch. Gulf origins always bring good juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If they close earlier it would come more west right? Like euro.... Eh, well yes or no. As they try to close, you'll probably get an enhanced area of left from the frontogenesis. It is true that a sharper 500mb s/a could lead to 700 closing off earlier. But that's not the main player driving low position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 But mid levels lows being east of main slp is good Huh? Do mid-level lows go east of the surface low? I don't even think that's really possible unless its really stacked? Looked west of the SFC low to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 But mid levels lows being east of main slp is good That's impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Gonna be digging out of 12+ it looks like. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Huh? Do mid-level lows go east of the surface low? Kevindynamics FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What if any bearing does the Euro shifting east after being further west with the current LP going up through the midwest and also the previous storm here in SNE when the Cold air held across the interior longer than the Euro was projecting and it was at it's furthest point west about 3 days prior to the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Suspense for what? Everyone and their mother knows it's going west. Sarcasm my Friend...yes we did know it was coming west, but someone said it looks like a Humdinger as well, so thus the "Suspense Line." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Kevin just created a new hemisphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What if any bearing does the Euro shifting east after being further west with the current LP going up through the midwest and also the previous storm here in SNE when the Cold air held across the interior longer than the Euro was projecting and it was at it's furthest point west about 3 days prior to the storm? When did the euro shift east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just recall the GFS hypotenuse now. Babies will choke on this piece of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Kevindynamics FTL. lol well it would be a first to have a storm with the mid-level centers east of the surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Sarcasm my Friend...yes we did know it was coming west, but someone said it looks like a Humdinger as well, so thus the "Suspense Line."Humdinger denotes strength, which implies west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Undeniable step towards the euro. Spin it how you want, but it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Man with that mid-level look, that's a Gods Country to Dendrite crushing band. I think Benchmark 40/70 was calling for that a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I just recall a post from Will several yrs ago saying these things always go east the last 24 hours on models..That's always stuck with me. Even the low last week..developed that mesolow and trapped interior in cold..i think those bringing rains to ORH are going to be mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 They're a bit west. By east he meant tracking from EWR to DAW to BGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I just recall a post from Will several yrs ago saying these things always go east the last 24 hours on models..That's always stuck with me. Even the low last week..developed that mesolow and trapped interior in cold..i think those bringing rains to ORH are going to be mistaken I'm sure Will said that...lol. You're unraveling early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Humdinger denotes strength, which implies west. No Kidding!!! I was being funny, maybe you can't understand that??? Weatherfella was telling us that it looked a tad west at that point, but his description of it looking stronger was why I said what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Would love it if the GFS was correct...but I'd probably favor the Euro right now...70/30 split in favor of Euro is still a big snowstorm over a lot of the interior...esp ORH-ASH NW. That run right there is a ginormous parachute bomb for the ORH Hills man. Holy smokes... That could be 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 When did the euro shift east? I understand we are dealing with a completely different setup here. But with our last weather system the Euro was furthest west and was torching us close to 60 but then shifted back east a bit and we ended up staying near 40 in my neck of the woods. I believe the Euro was also a bit further west a couple days ago than it is now with the Low going up through the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Man with that mid-level look, that's a Gods Country to Dendrite crushing band. I think Benchmark 40/70 was calling for that a couple days ago. And then there will be the NW band that's always overperforms. NW CT on NE will get a good crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 I just recall a post from Will several yrs ago saying these things always go east the last 24 hours on models..That's always stuck with me. Even the low last week..developed that mesolow and trapped interior in cold..i think those bringing rains to ORH are going to be mistaken I think you just completely made that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I understand we are dealing with a completely different setup here. But with our last weather system the Euro was furthest west and was torching us close to 60 but then shifted back east a bit and we ended up staying near 40 in my neck of the woods. I believe the Euro was also a bit further west a couple days ago than it is now with the Low going up through the midwest. Lol...I think that was a week ago. Yes the euro will likely shift east but IMHO not a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Again, as that left exit region of the 500mb jet max collocates under that uber intense right entrance region of the 300mb wind sheath you're talking some 70 degree upright steady state UVM of some insane velocities man. There's got to be gravity wave action and some lightning/thunder in rain/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think you just completely made that up. No I did not. WTF? You did say it. I remember you posting these coastal lows almost always trend east the last 24. You made it in reference to both tropical systems and coastals..Nice though..Appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just because the new gfs may be off on this storm does not make the model a piece of crap as a whole. We have yet to learn how it handles east coast cyclogenesis to see its tendencies. My personal opinion as a to this storm is I think the euro is over amplifying this thing as we have seen in the past. I won't 100% discount what it showing but I would weigh it in with other guidance right now. I would still rely heavily on the ensembles right now until we get with 48h or so and than we can start taking the deterministic models more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Guys, try to keep this on topic with minimal banter...we know it's the firts real "threat" of the season, but the one line posts that don't add anything will be deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 No I did not. WTF? You did say it. I remember you posting these coastal lows almost always trend east the last 24. You made it in reference to both tropical systems and coastals..Nice though..Appreciate it I probably said that about a tropical cyclone trying to come up the coast...but that is completely inapplicable to this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just because the new gfs may be off on this storm does not make the model a piece of crap as a whole. We have yet to learn how it handles east coast cyclogenesis to see its tendencies. My personal opinion as a to this storm is I think the euro is over amplifying this thing as we have seen in the past. I won't 100% discount what it showing but I would weigh it in with other guidance right now. I would still rely heavily on the ensembles right now until we get with 48h or so and than we can start taking the deterministic models more seriously. Meh. I'll eat crow if that solution verifies, but it's smelling like a turd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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