Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Maybe a crapload of lift below 700 dynamically cooling that layer enough to retard the northward advance of warm air? Doesn't seem like a situation where you would have severely sloped warm air in an overrunning set up. seemed obvious to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Seems to be a pretty decent cluster pretty far west. Pretty big change actually. I don't see a cluster west...there's some rogue members really far west, but the largest cluster is definitely close to that ACK track. I'm looking at the uppr air spghetti plots...not the actual sfc low plots which can be kind of goofy anyway. There's a large cluster fairly tightly packed that are less amped than the OP run. But there's definitely some more rogue amped members than there were yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 using surface temps as snow determination fail. Its like no one has a memory. Does that use surface temps? I thought the SFC didn't look like the issue. 700mb is the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I don't see a cluster west...there's some rogue members really far west, but the largest cluster is definitely close to that ACK track. I'm looking at the uppr air spghetti plots...not the actual sfc low plots which can be kind of goofy anyway. There's a large cluster fairly tightly packed that are less amped than the OP run. But there's definitely some more rogue amped members than there were yesterday. Yeah, the SFC plots are pretty low resolution too...just those weren't there yesterday. We've also lost the completely east fish storm members. I agree, the majority look to be right around ACK or the Cape or the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Seems to be a pretty decent cluster pretty far west. Pretty big change actually.Its not a big change as Will noted. They aren't all that different from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 BTW that is a neat site Chris. Was playing with it earlier. Will do so again later and try to get a better understanding. I imagine it can be really cool to use when the signals become strong. HPC echoed some of the thoughts we were tossing around about the western ridge being the key to the forecast in their medium range discussion today. I imagine they are using quite a bit of this technique, but I really only heard of it through NROW the past couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Was playing with it earlier. Will do so again later and try to get a better understanding.you will go blind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 you will go blind What is the link to that site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I don't see a cluster west...there's some rogue members really far west, but the largest cluster is definitely close to that ACK track. I'm looking at the uppr air spghetti plots...not the actual sfc low plots which can be kind of goofy anyway. There's a large cluster fairly tightly packed that are less amped than the OP run. But there's definitely some more rogue amped members than there were yesterday. Yeah I saw surface low plots, my bad. Weaker solutions east, amped up solutions west. You are right though, still a decent amount are easy, which is good to keep some hope this could trend east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Its not a big change as Will noted. They aren't all that different from 00z They are def west of 00z...but its the same type of shift that the OP had..i.e., there wasn't a convergence toward the OP and ensembles which is what I want to see for more confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Does that use surface temps? I thought the SFC didn't look like the issue. 700mb is the issue. Exactly what I was thinking too...but what do I know??? Ginxy knows alot more than me, so maybe he is right??? Hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Does that use surface temps? I thought the SFC didn't look like the issue. 700mb is the issue.yes and it totally screwed Feb 13 and Feb 14 for that exact reason. I have yet to find a snow algorithm besides bufkit that uses all the variables required for snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 another event with big model differences inside 84 hours. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Exactly what I was thinking too...but what do I know??? Ginxy knows alot more than me, so maybe he is right??? Hope so.I recall that uses surface temperature to determine snow, flaws like they all have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 New SREFS crush SNE, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Actually pretty simple to see when looping the individual ensembles...if this phases well those lows get ripped well inland. Would be a problem even up here. They just get like sucked west, almost like a 2010 type evolution. The partial phase is what we want and keeps the storm near ACK or the Cape. Bingo for those further east... without a substantial block to the north you always have to be careful about possible phasing solutions carrying the surface cyclone too far inland. The partial phase is the optimal solution, but often very difficult to forecast with any confidence. Hence the large uncertainty even as we get within < 4 days to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What is the link to that site?pay site Eurowx.com. I dropped it last year as it was meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 New SREFS crush SNE, FWIW.Which is pretty much nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It is interesting that the gfs has been consistently east. To be honest the euro and gfs really haven't wavered much from current position in the grand scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Which is pretty much nothing Yea lol. I'd rather not have them on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 pay site Eurowx.com. I dropped it last year as it was meh Yeah I had it, took the free trial and decided it wasn't worth it. I wish the antecedent was better. Big time torch today in all of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 another event with big model differences inside 84 hours. ugh Its pretty insane. What's a foot of snow between friends. Thats the difference in some areas between gfs and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I recall that uses surface temperature to determine snow, flaws like they all have. Ok that's good to know. Bottom line here is, if the far Western Solution verifies that the Euro is showing, it's a front end thump of a few inches for most of Interior CT over to Rain. And if it ticks east towards the end(like alot of these seem to do), then more in the way of snow can be expected for SNE. It's a win win imo, how often do you get to track a Major Winter Storm the days right before T-Giving. And there will be more surprises yet to come with 84 hours left before go time. DIT needs to stop panicking for heavens sake...Not like there is anything anybody could do anyways. Enjoy the ride...hopefully we all get to see some snow fly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 There are two main clusters on the euro ens. About half are super amped and inside the benchmark and closer to the op. The other half are just east of ACK. definitely gives some credence to the west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It is interesting that the gfs has been consistently east. To be honest the euro and gfs really haven't wavered much from current position in the grand scheme. The GFS seems to have 2 caving windows, one around 84-108 which the last few years it has not been doing so as much, the other is inside 48-54...I would not be surprised if it holds out for another 24 hours assuming the Euro continues to be this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 NAM coming in different than 12z what a funny model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 NAM is moving west, although that's like the SREFS in usefulness. Not much, but the NAM is at least on the move, should look good for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Sounds like a mix to rain or mix to mix in ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 NAM coming in different than 12z what a funny model That's quite a significant change from 12z's partly cloudy look for even coastal areas. 18z hits SNE pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 yes and it totally screwed Feb 13 and Feb 14 for that exact reason. I have yet to find a snow algorithm besides bufkit that uses all the variables required for snow growth I know there is talk of using that type of info to output precip type on the GFS, which theoretically could be used for better snowfall forecasts. Rather than forecast snow based on surface temps, forecast snow based on precip type. But then again it's still the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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