weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 See Kevin snow is like having kids. Once either is here, you need to protect and worry. The difference is kids most often grow up and thrive. Snow always melts at some point. Not having it frees you of the worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yes...but I expect the ensembles to shift west. I still believe the OP is too amped, but I am definitely less confident in that idea after 3 consecutive runs pretty far west with this run being the most amped yet.But if they stay about the same within 25 miles then we can have higher confidence op is too west/amped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah that's more like it. I guess what I mean, is that some people overuse the term. Completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 But if they stay about the same within 25 miles then we can have higher confidence op is too west/amped? You're worried. It's a long season..,pace yourself, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Mets.. If the ens stay the same do we think the op is too amped? But if the mean shifts west, does that give the cutter idea more credence? Credence to a cutter comes from western ridging and how that translates downstream. I would pay attention to that the next couple of days. If heights are higher than modeled on the ensembles then maybe we have a western solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Too bad no one lives there. Aside from you, Rick and Andy (where are they anyway?). Does the EC track it over the Cape? Tough to tell on the maps I can see. Ahem can't help but feel a little hurt about that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Snow always melts at some point. Not having it frees you of the worry. I think the famous quote goes: "It's better to have snowed and melt than never to have snowed at all." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah that's more like it. I guess what I mean, is that some people overuse the term. True, but even some mets seem to love it...but like you said I hear it more in reference to why the east coast could get crushed when lows are well off-shore. Like the pro hypsters like to use that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ahem can't help but feel a little hurt about that! The irony of his statement too considering where he lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ahem can't help but feel a little hurt about that! That's an ongoing joke--some posters ignore the fact that appealing weather may take place outside of high populated areas. Congrats. No thoughts of snow out there today, 52.9/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You're worried. It's a long season..,pace yourself,Of course I am. Everyone is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 True, but even some mets seem to love it...but like you said I hear it more in reference to why the east coast could get crushed when lows are well off-shore. Like the pro hypsters like to use that. It is a true and accurate term when used properly. I have said it before. But, I see some poeple (not you) use it to describe a solution they do not like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Credence to a cutter comes from western ridging and how that translates downstream. I would pay attention to that the next couple of days. If heights are higher than modeled on the ensembles then maybe we have a western solution. Watch us run full circle back to a cutter up to Montreal...remember last week when this week looked warm and there were a couple cutters out at day 8-10? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It is a true and accurate term when used properly. I have said it before. But, I see some poeple (not you) use it to describe a solution they do not like. I should've clarified I wasn't thinking convective feedback but more if there was something happening early on in the Gulf that was causing differences. But you mets have explained it well that it's more the western ridge position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It is a true and accurate term when used properly. I have said it before. But, I see some poeple (not you) use it to describe a solution they do not like. Bingo. It's a good buzzword to toss a solution that is unfavorable for hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Of course I am. Everyone is I'm not. I have minimal expectations. My worry is driving Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Watch us run full circle back to a cutter up to Montreal...remember last week when this week looked warm and there were a couple cutters out at day 8-10? lol It'll be tough to do that unless the trough can dig so far as to turn negative before it really crosses the Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The irony of his statement too considering where he lives. Haha to be fair the Upstate NY threads do not see as much traffic (outside of the Lake Effect snow threads)... wish we did have a more active user base up here! That's an ongoing joke--some posters ignore the fact that appealing weather may take place outside of high populated areas. Congrats. No thoughts of snow out there today, 52.9/36 Too early to be giving us the congrats for the upcoming event! The ECMWF ensemble spread still had the majority in the weaker event camp (< 6") at 00z for ALB, so I'd very much like to see the ensemble distribution shift more in the operational run's direction before I start increasing confidence about this event. Still some pretty large differences between the GFS and ECMWF at this venture, although I'd certainly rather have the EC on my side for obvious reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm not. I have minimal expectations. My worry is driving Wednesday. Same here, Its one run with many more to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Watch us run full circle back to a cutter up to Montreal...remember last week when this week looked warm and there were a couple cutters out at day 8-10? lol It's a problem. Once a model shows a snow event, people forget all the other solutions that were once on the table. At least with the 00z GEFS, there was little variance to the spread on the eastern envelope. Unfortunately, I don't have access to the Euro EPS, so I can't say what kind of variance was going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm not. I have minimal expectations. My worry is driving Wednesday. I'd rather be in NJ than BOS for this event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It'll be tough to do that unless the trough can dig so far as to turn negative before it really crosses the Mississippi. Yeah it was more tongue in cheek, I was just realizing what the long ranged looked like a week ago when it looked warmer most of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Haha to be fair the Upstate NY threads do not see as much traffic (outside of the Lake Effect snow threads)... wish we did have a more active user base up here! Too early to be giving us the congrats for the upcoming event! The ECMWF ensemble spread still had the majority in the weaker event camp (< 6") at 00z for ALB, so I'd very much like to see the ensemble distribution shift more in the operational run's direction before I start increasing confidence about this event. Still some pretty large differences between the GFS and ECMWF at this venture, although I'd certainly rather have the EC on my side for obvious reasons I just realized the OP gets ALY to 0C at H7 but after most precip is through...but man that 700mb warmth gets inland, almost up to here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I just realized the OP gets ALY to 0C at H7 but after most precip is through...but man that 700mb warmth gets inland, almost up to here too.The 700mb warm push gets basically to Saratoga springs would be ironic if the bullseye is the southern dacks to NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The euro is still a lot of snow here before we flip over. Big ice in the hills I think to o. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I know the diagonal GFS has gotten a lot of play too, but this is also the first big system for the CMC since their upgrade of the op and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I know the diagonal GFS has gotten a lot of play too, but this is also the first big system for the CMC since their upgrade of the op and ensembles. The two upgraded models are weaker and farther E, interesting test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro snow map that DT posted on FB snow stars north of a Albany not much south of Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro snow map that DT posted on FB snow stars north of a Albany not much south of Mass Like all snow maps right now, that'd be wildly inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The two upgraded models are weaker and farther E, interesting test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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