HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The usual oscillations. Let's see if we can get more than one run in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks ok for w ct. Congrats west zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Man, that is some big icing for ORH county after the initial thump still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Mets said west was not an option. Said OTS was more likely No they didn't. Nobody discounted anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Monster deep interior hit. Heavy, heavy FZDZ Thursday morning as it drives the dry slot all the way to IZG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 lol at the panic, still plenty of time for shifting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nudge the euro east and gfs west and my thanksgiving will be complete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Mets said west was not an option. Said OTS was more likelyhmm never saw that. I believe they said it can only cut so far west. Did DT post his daily flip flop yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 hmm never saw that. I believe they said it can only cut so far west. Did DT post his daily flip flop yet. Yeah there is hardly any room for it to come west...but a perfect phase can bring this up the CT river valley or something. I still think it will end up more east than the Euro shows...but obviously the longer it shows amped up solutions, the more realistic it becomes. There's an enormous amount of spread for an 84 hour forecast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm not as concern with the Op, Lets see where the ensembles go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Mets said west was not an option. Said OTS was more likely Actually I spent a good sized post not too long ago on how the stronger, western option was on the table in the ensembles. Plus, these two statements do not mean the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z Ukie west as well Looks like over the Cape? I'm missing the panel where it passes New England though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Heavy, heavy FZDZ Thursday morning as it drives the dry slot all the way to IZG. Pretty nasty front end thump before that DS. Not sure which layer goes above 0C first, but it looks close to all snow here through 90hr with nearly 1.50" QPF having already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The euro is going to have to make an enormous shift east to look anything like the gfs. Not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Pretty nasty front end thump before that DS. Not sure which layer goes above 0C first, but it looks close to all snow here through 90hr with nearly 1.50" QPF having already fallen.crushed from what I see, have no idea what PF is smoking but it's certainly not cirrus or a dryslut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 In the end I could see the euro being right, but like Will said..maybe this is the classic 3 day "OMG" amped up solution only to trickle east. However, given the origins and the ridge out west...it's not like this is a clown solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 And remember for those of potential disappointment, it's November, we're playing with house money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Pretty nasty front end thump before that DS. Not sure which layer goes above 0C first, but it looks close to all snow here through 90hr with nearly 1.50" QPF having already fallen. My 80 km ECMWF at work shows 700 torching first, 850 hangs on just to your south. We know the drill on this type of evolution anyway. That amount of QPF wouldn't occur after the dry slot, so the significant mixed precip isn't too much of a worry after the thump. Now northeast of you verbatim would taint pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm not as concern with the Op, Lets see where the ensembles go I'll bet you a seasons pass here that they are east of the OP lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Pretty nasty front end thump before that DS. Not sure which layer goes above 0C first, but it looks close to all snow here through 90hr with nearly 1.50" QPF having already fallen. The WCB is really impressive on these amped up solutions...so you don't lose as much snow as one might htink..the stronger/west solutions have a more hellacious WCB than the colder/SE solutions...so it might be a case of like 8-12 all snow vs like 10" on the front end and then IP/ZR where you are. Even for like ORH, the Euro runs slams the front end into them with like 6-8" and then a decent period of icing...might briefly go to 33-35F rain before ending as flurries, but hard to say...and really not to relevant yet. But its kind of a mini-paradox for some areas (mostly the interior) on the more amped runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 From Ryan M. @RyanMaue: ECMWF 12z convinced of west-most track of Low pressure along E coast. Very wet system, 2-3'' precip likely. Where snow, will be crippling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 crushed from what I see, have no idea what PF is smoking but it's certainly not cirrus or a dryslut Skyrockets in flight, deformation delight...all the way back to SLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 And remember for those of potential disappointment, it's November, we're playing with house money. precisely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 crushed from what I see, have no idea what PF is smoking but it's certainly not cirrus or a dryslut Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Brian is going to get an 8hr all out sh*t show before any taint. We see that all the time with the WCB..even last year..or things like March '09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Skyrockets in flight, deformation delight...all the way back to SLK Wish I was at LSC for this one. Hell, the Euro gets 6-10" back to me in State College....haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The euro is going to have to make an enormous shift east to look anything like the gfs. Not likely. Why? It just made an 'enormous shift' west. It can only shift to the left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Pretty nasty front end thump before that DS. Not sure which layer goes above 0C first, but it looks close to all snow here through 90hr with nearly 1.50" QPF having already fallen. What's good for you is better for me. Guess its time to pick up the phone and call the 3 contractor guys that rely on me. Last couple of years I have been too far NW with the big systems. Euro is like a pitbull the bits and will not let go. It has been consistently west and the other models seem to follow. Hope it comes back east for all you guys down there, but what a travel nightmare for so many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I really need to move away from Logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Skyrockets in flight, deformation delight...all the way back to SLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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