CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 parallel NAM maybe? Well the NAM seems to run in a parallel universe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If the GFS slips back east like it had at 00z, I will feel like we'll be back at square 1. It would be great to maintain steady or a tick toward EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well the NAM seems to run in a parallel universe. lol. A perpendicular one might be a more apt definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Golly-gee this statement is based on the 06z GFS (ya I know GFS) Still looks warm to me. It's showing temps in the 40's for all of SE Mass the dreaded CF as expected this time of year. Good front-end dumpage (6"+) is present outside of 495. Snowstorm yes with still many details to iron out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Why is Tip saying a blue bomb? It looks like interior drops into mid-upper 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I expect the GFS to be too warm anyways this time of year. You aren't going to have an above freezing airmass on the cold side of the CF like it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Why is Tip saying a blue bomb? It looks like interior drops into mid-upper 20's There are more folks impacted than just the interior (ur back yard) dude. In fact, an areas that go sub freezing are probably the minority compared to the majority from DC to eastern Maine. The storm, over all, for lacking a strong polar high to supply cold, is relying almost entirely on the happenstance location of where the baroclinic axis lands post fropa Tuesday. Right now, that appears to be just off shore some 50 to 100 miles, so the low probably scoots along between those points. With no blocking/cold high to supply cold more unilaterally, and the ocean still being relatively warm at this time of year... DUH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Btw, the governing dynamics for this event are just as of the 12z initialization (NAM) kissing the air over the shores of B.C... As this feature gets more fully over land and into the empirical sounding grid, it might be interesting to see if the NAM gets a boost, or if it keeps with it's ANA-like appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just looking at the BUFKIT profiles on the GFS inland, it doesn't look like a blue bomb to me. It may not be a fluff bomb, but I don't see this as a wet snow at the height. Maybe perhaps lower elevations to start? Or perhaps closer to the CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just looking at the BUFKIT profiles on the GFS inland, it doesn't look like a blue bomb to me. It may not be a fluff bomb, but I don't see this as a wet snow at the height. Maybe perhaps lower elevations to start? Or perhaps closer to the CF. Keeping in mind (heh), the term "blue bomb" is a dopey Tip metaphor ... so there's some subjectivity to it's use. Blue Bomb doesn't necessarily mean "wet snow" ? no, in my use it's always just meant high water content snow. We can fiddle with that interpretation, but I have seen dense pack put down at 29F before because the sounding is a bit isothermal and the snow growth region is around -5 to -3C... Believe me, ...cleaving into a snow bank with that type of deposition will produce "blue" wedges... Also, I mean the entire system from DC to on up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 CIPS actually has 12/6/2009 as a good analog. There are some similarities, but to me, the setup across the deep south isn't the greatest in comparison. The track and beginning setup reminds me of 1/22/87 but the airmass in place near the coastal plain was better and that system tracked more west than even the Euro currently has this one tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Keeping in mind (heh), the term "blue bomb" is a dopey Tip metaphor ... so there's some subjectivity to it's use. Blue Bomb doesn't necessarily mean "wet snow" ? no, in my use it's always just meant high water content snow. We can fiddle with that interpretation, but I have seen dense pack put down at 29F before because the sounding is a bit isothermal and the snow growth region is around -5 to -3C... Believe me, ...cleaving into a snow bank with that type of deposition will produce "blue" wedges... Also, I mean the entire system from DC to on up... Yeah it will have substance for sure. The front end has a lot of lift in the DGZ so I bet there will be some decent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The track and beginning setup reminds me of 1/22/87 but the airmass in place near the coastal plain was better and that system tracked more west than even the Euro currently has this one tracking. I remember that storm... One of my favorites. I was a junior in High School. The regular student pack shuffling into Calculus II, I stood peering out the window as small uniform aggregates began to fill a sill air that lay beneath a morbidly slate gray sky. The temperature was like ... Jesus, 19 or something, waaay colder than forecast. It was classic "cold cap" scenario. We radiated wonderfully the previous evening; then a dense cirrus envelopment arrived just before the dawn, and thus steam from respiration just fell from our chins as we walked to school. The forecast? Still, 1-3" of snow, changing to rain. WRONG! The teacher, privy to my obsession with the weather, had in the moment sidled up next to me. I stated, "It seems a lot colder than they predicted. Those snow flakes are tiny." She replied, "I don't think this is turning to rain like they said...", her eyes twitching about the barren football field across the way. So as it were, the snow had us down to 1/3 or so mile visibility when lightning started flashing, BOOMs. I was on the ski slope at Nashoba Valley when they actually closed the mountain (really a mole hill..heh) due to visibility. Went down to less than a 1/16th of a mile, more flashes ... more booms. Almost no wind. Two hourly total exceeded 8", and the vent totaled around a foot. Finally, at around 9pm that night ... the snow tapered to drizzle/freezing drill, with a bit of a NE wind that had managed to at last pick up. It is to this day my 2nd in place for all-time bone-head forecast, positive busts. Only exceeded in that ranking by December 23rd, 1997. Now THAT is a storm that will truly live on in infamy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The modeling is a bit bizarre for this system. The always amped up Nam is a whiff and para gfs has consistently been a whiff. Still a ton of spread depending on how you weight each model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Technically with a higher resolution it should be better but it's out to lunch right now Well the higher resolution means that sometimes spurious model creations like convective vort maxes can run wild in time. That's why a lot of seasoned (older isn't the right term) mets prefer the NGM resolution type stuff. Those low resolution models are good at keying on important synoptic features, and the met can tease on the mesoscale from pattern recognition. I personally try to look at things like frontogenesis on low resolution grid scales. Otherwise you start getting weird model terrain/convective induced features that may or may not be real tainting the overall picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12Z GFS looks similar to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS looks a shade east of 06z but its actually a stronger storm. Still a pretty close solution to the 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS looks a shade east of 06z but its actually a stronger storm. Still a pretty close solution to the 06z Yeah it strengthened too. Good look for areas just away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS weenie amx model snow map give me 10"+ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I really really really miss the NGM, seriously Ocean State. Wow on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Gfs is a snowstorm for everyone away from the beaches. Pretty big differences for areas around Boston and interior SE between euro and gfs. Euro wouldn't be much in those areas, gfs may be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 A hair colder overall too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Gfs is a snowstorm for everyone away from the beaches. Pretty big differences for areas around Boston and interior SE between euro and gfs. Euro wouldn't be much in those areas, gfs may be Euro would be pretty much none. GFS would be pretty awesome for Walpole-Foxboro etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro would be pretty much none. GFS would be pretty awesome for Walpole-Foxboro etc. Yeah i dont envy this forecast at all. Euro and gfs printing out totally different pictures Even the taunton Norton easton area is probably easily 6+ on a gfs like solution. Would be really sweet to get something like this to work out after pretty cold two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The weenie sv map is 8" ish here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's not the most coherent pattern, but there is what appears to be an interesting signal from the ensemble sensitivity stuff coming out of SUNY Stony Brook. If I'm interpreting things correctly (which may not be the case), one of the SLP patterns that explains 20% of the ensemble variance is a deeper, western solution. If you trace back where this uncertainty arises from there seems to a be a good, continuous relationship with the trough south of the Aleutians in the NoPac right now. Unfortunately, we have no hard data to verify if the models are initializing too high or low with heights ahead of that wave. What the uncertainty suggests, is that we want to see higher than modeled heights translate ahead of this wave into BC, then eventually downstream into higher heights over the Southeast (which makes sense for a more westerly track), then higher heights to our north (again makes sense). Initialization: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'll take my .75" and run. Nice look for most on the board. I'll be psyched if we can get the EC to hold where it is for the upcoming run with the end result down the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Timing couldn't be worse for traveling. Personally I'm probably going to have to drop off the dog now Tuesday and get up really early Wednesday and hope to be on the road such that I could be over the GW before noon. And maybe ensconced in the beautiful surroundings in Princeton before things get out of hand. I'm worried actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 One thing, It will be quick hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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