moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We are getting inside day 4 but in many cases this year and last that still was an eternity I'm not talking of locking, but gaining support from more members. The GFS dryslots CT by 3z Thursday and the rest shortly after. Keeps comma head ALB-BTV after looking at it. Then maybe after break snow redevelops as mid levels head east. Definition of front end thump. The loudest screamers will be those that get the DS. Please let it not be here. 34.6/29. Ice on the north deck still has not melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Squirrels are going ballistic this morning..I just looked outside and counted 5 -6 of them prancing and dancing all over the lawn grabbing acorns..digging in beds etc...they know the time has arrived for continuous cover.. The clipper over the N plains is what is preventing this from cutting west..thank God that is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 NCEP is just trying to preserve met jobs. Looks like they will succeed in this instance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro is definitely a nice 4-6" deal and then ice it seems inland. Yeah that is a hellacious front end thump...the look of the WCB on that makes me think very heavy snow before the flip...esp where it hangs on a bit longer. I still think the Euro is probably over-amped though anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Squirrels are going ballistic this morning..I just looked outside and counted 5 -6 of them prancing and dancing all over the lawn grabbing acorns..digging in beds etc...they know the time has arrived for continuous cover.. The clipper over the N plains is what is preventing this from cutting west..thank God that is there I thought you had already crawled on your hands and knees and picked up every acorn yourself. I guess from a timing standpoint, this will mostly be cleared out by TG morning in this neck of the woods? Pretty decent timing possibly. Thursday travelers will be able to just clear their driveways and go. Unfortunately, in-law from ME will likely need to come down on Wed a.m. to beat the storm. FTVDL (for the vacation day loss). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah that is a hellacious front end thump...the look of the WCB on that makes me think very heavy snow before the flip...esp where it hangs on a bit longer. I still think the Euro is probably over-amped though anyway. Hopefully. I think so too. That would be a more uncommon setup for ice it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We have to root for the Euro up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hopefully. I think so too. That would be a more uncommon setup for ice it seems. My confidence is pretty high this morning that I'll at least have the grass covered. If that's the extent of it here, much of SNE will be rejoicing in heavier stuff. If I get walloped, perhaps there will be some disgruntled folks south of here and east of here. Reality will likely be somewhere in the middle with everyone being thankful for snow with their cranberry sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hopefully. I think so too. That would be a more uncommon setup for ice it seems. There's like a 1030 high that forms just N of maine before the storm hits on the Euro...that really enhances the CAD. It could definitely ice in that setup over places like ORH...but usually when you get a strong high, it manifests itself in the mid-levels more as you get closer (this happened in events like 12/16/07) so we end up with a more snow scenario and only a thin transition zone. Dec 2008 was kind of an exception for strong cyclogensis in conjunction with a strengthening high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 There's like a 1030 high that forms just N of maine before the storm hits on the Euro...that really enhances the CAD. It could definitely ice in that setup over places like ORH...but usually when you get a strong high, it manifests itself in the mid-levels more as you get closer (this happened in events like 12/16/07) so we end up with a more snow scenario and only a thin transition zone. Dec 2008 was kind of an exception for strong cyclogensis in conjunction with a strengthening high to the north. That's what I think if it were to happen. I just don't see a setup like this conforming into an area of more widespread IP/ZR like the euro op has. How often does a strengthening low near the Cape produce that much mixed precip to almost Albany? I suppose never rule anything out, but this seems more like a rain/snow deal with maybe a narrow transition zone like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Decent sleet in there for some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Tropicaltidbits isn't working for whatever reason. DDoS attack. He has been dealing with it for the past couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 DDoS attack. He has been dealing with it for the past couple days. Oh that's what it is? Stupid tech hipsters doing that crap. Hopefully he can fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 CIPS actually has 12/6/2009 as a good analog. There are some similarities, but to me, the setup across the deep south isn't the greatest in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Weenie model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 CIPS actually has 12/6/2009 as a good analog. There are some similarities, but to me, the setup across the deep south isn't the greatest in comparison. That would not be a good analog up here at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Weenie model Yeah...SREFs went from flat to crazy in 1 run. NAM probably will too. Not that it matters past 6hr considering these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That would not be a good analog up here at all That's why analogs aren't the greatest to compare. I was just curious what it had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Weenie model Would that be the 540dm thickness line all the way up in CNE when the low is still off the Delmarva? Jeez there'd be some warm air aloft in that jacked weenie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 My confidence is pretty high this morning that I'll at least have the grass covered. If that's the extent of it here, much of SNE will be rejoicing in heavier stuff. If I get walloped, perhaps there will be some disgruntled folks south of here and east of here. Reality will likely be somewhere in the middle with everyone being thankful for snow with their cranberry sauce. Eh' just always place your bets on Worcester Co. jackpotting and you'll win more than you lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The SREF jump is sort of comical...great track for SNE/CNE on the mean. Those have been proven worthless but at least they show a storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 NAM has pcloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Haha no dice on the NAM. Surprising given what the SREFS just did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 My guess is the EURO backs off a bit, the GFS stays pretty similar, and we lock in a 8-12" event from Blizz to ORH to Dendrite. Details to be determined on either side of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Eh' just always place your bets on Worcester Co. jackpotting and you'll win more than you lose. If the Euro Op verifies I would go with Litchfield and Berkshire. A consensus or ensemble track I would go with Kevin or ORH. The Ct valley rarely jackpots . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think the hills around here in Sunapee could help us out a lot. From around me to Dendrite could jack if the models hold serve (they won't lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This is the type of storm where I would expect the NAM to be so wrapped up, that it curls into Belmar NJ. Surprised it didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The GFS dryslots CT by 3z Thursday and the rest shortly after. Keeps comma head ALB-BTV after looking at it. Then maybe after break snow redevelops as mid levels head east. Definition of front end thump. I'm a little behind this morning ... just on the surface the GFS' last couple runs are bit tilted in the vertical with the vortex structure. When that happens, rads tend to shred, with bands of moderate or even heavy ...intervened by comparatively light/lull regions. The storm becomes more "showery" in nature, with one town in 1/4 mi vi and two towns away in flurries -- 40 minutes later the two are reversed. It may atone for it's "deepiness" look and better precipitation manufacturing... Contrasting, though I don't get to see the detailed deep layered structures in the Euo, it's 'on the surface' appeal is that the S/W track is actually a touch E, and is deeper than the recent GFS', and the lower tropospheric vortex is better collocated with the DPVA and jazz running up the coast. One other thing to consider... Miller A's are PWAT haulers... Their source is theta-e rich beyond the dreams of the bluenose. A moderately intense system will output more compared to a similar intensity system arriving more on a west-Miller B-like evolution. That may be why some of those "clown" product are running the ORH hills to nearly 20". It's a classic autumn/spring blue bomb. Just some observations... Steve, still not much support from the other guidance but the Canadogapian model went nuts with that little critter for next Saturday... Actually takes the NJ low and bombogens it to a deep juggernaut in the GOM. Heh... The Euro has a 2 contoured close low and some squalls (perhaps) -- hey, it may not be all out support, at least it's contributing to the campaign funds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This is the type of storm where I would expect the NAM to be so wrapped up, that it curls into Belmar NJ. Surprised it didn't.parallel NAM maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Upton as of right now is favoring a track just east of the benchmark Until all the key players...including energy still out over thePacific are resolved...the exact nature of interaction between anorthern stream clipper and a positively tilted trough over the eastcentral portion of the country by midweek is still uncertain - sothe forecast will likely change to some degree. For now though thefollowing is what appears most likely - that a fairly decent...butnot overly strong low should track just east of the 40n/70wbenchmark Wednesday evening. http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=OKX&StateCode=NY&SafeCityName=Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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