TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So what's up with the euro? If the ensembles have been east of the OP, why is the OP run so jacked up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So I always forget this, how does the Euro "control run" vary from the OP and the rest of the ensembles? Why do they make specific control run graphics to tease us with a 989mb low near the eastern tip of Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think I'll take the euro and the massive 1.50" QPF dump. It's been awhile since I've had something like that. With that op run, it'd be possible to keep pack up here from Thanksgiving through the end of winter if we get dealt a good hand. In a heartbeat nice base builder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So what's up with the euro? If the ensembles have been east of the OP, why is the OP run so jacked up Probably because of the higher resolution and the way it handles s/w interactions, jet streaks, and latent heat release related to convection. It could be right as well, but out of 51 ensemble members, there may be 4 or 5 about as jacked up as the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So what's up with the euro? If the ensembles have been east of the OP, why is the OP run so jacked up In this case the ensembles will be east every single run. There are members that have no storm at all really and so naturally the mean gets dragged down. I can't think of a situation like this where the ensembles would all be strong lows along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 These maps are so different from the SV maps..both wrong..but I don't understand why they are so different I wish that is what the euro showed here, but it's not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Need to keep an eye on the individual members to see which side more start to lean on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So I always forget this, how does the Euro "control run" vary from the OP and the rest of the ensembles? Why do they make specific control run graphics to tease us with a 989mb low near the eastern tip of Long Island? I believe it's a non-perturbed euro at the ensemble resolution. Then the ensemble members are perturbed from the control in various ways. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So I always forget this, how does the Euro "control run" vary from the OP and the rest of the ensembles? Why do they make specific control run graphics to tease us with a 989mb low near the eastern tip of Long Island? It's sort of hard to explain, but a control run uses initial conditions based on the assimilation system. The other members use their starting point based on initial conditions when using the ensemble modeling method as like a first guess. I may have that more or less correct. I honestly don't think a lot of stock should be put on a control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I believe it's a non-perturbed euro at the ensemble resolution. Then the ensemble members are perturbed from the control in various ways. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. Ah thanks that's what I was wondering. I couldn't figure out why they have the ECM OP and then a control run...but makes sense as they can't run the ensembles on the OPs resolution, so it's a dumbed down version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Need to keep an eye on the individual members to see which side more start to lean on That makes sense. Hopefully we'll see whole-sale changes on the members with the 12z run with support growing for the op. It would seem to me that by 12z, if we don't see more signs of agreement between the GFS/EC ens and their op runs that something pretty bizarre is at play. A lot still can change in 72-96 hours, but the window of time is no longer huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That makes sense. Hopefully we'll see whole-sale changes on the members with the 12z run with support growing for the op. It would seem to me that by 12z, if we don't see more signs of agreement between the GFS/EC ens and their op runs that something pretty bizarre is at play. A lot still can change in 72-96 hours, but the window of time is no longer huge. We are getting inside day 4 but in many cases this year and last that still was an eternity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro has pretty much held its ground with the other models shifting around more from run to run and some not biting st all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Once again..Euro proves on Miller A's..it won't be beaten. If it shows a Miller A several runs in a row..it always wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Once again..Euro proves on Miller A's..it won't be beaten. If it shows a Miller A several runs in a row..it always wins Yeah, but the question is on track now. It's not whether there is a storm or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah, but the question is on track now. It's not whether there is a storm or not. Well yeah..I think common consensus is op run is too amped and west..and it probably tracks 50 miles or so west of the BM..but I mean the GFS nonsense of OTS was never an option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 70/30 Euro /old GFS blend Almost time to start chucking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well yeah..I think common consensus is op run is too amped and west..and it probably tracks 50 miles or so west of the BM..but I mean the GFS nonsense of OTS was never an option LOL, well most don't care about models 5+ days out knowing the wild swings. The GFS came on yesterday which is fine in my book. If the euro ends up east and the GFS sort of holds steady, who cares when the euro had it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 70/30 Euro /old GFS blend Almost time to start chucking I'd say, you would want a 50/50 blend. That's my gut right now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 For here it is much better with the way the trough is more N/S so even a BM track would still be favorable where in most cases with A's they tend to be exiting right when it reaches here and are not as favorable typically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro has pretty much held its ground with the other models shifting around more from run to run and some not biting st allGFS, EC, EC EPS, UKMET on one side. GGEM, GEPS, NAM, SREFs, GFSx, NAVGEM, JMA on the other. GEFS are sorta split. I can tell you which group I'd rather have in my corner...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 LOL, well most don't care about models 5+ days out knowing the wild swings. The GFS came on yesterday which is fine in my book. If the euro ends up east and the GFS sort of holds steady, who cares when the euro had it? Well the point is..if you were using the GFS you'd have sunny and 40's for wed/Thurs..if you were using the euro..you'd have a clue there was a chance of a storm and you'd mention snow/rain and 30's..Big difference..One right. one wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro ensemble track I think most would prefer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS, EC, EC EPS, UKMET on one side. GGEM, GEPS, NAM, SREFs, GFSx, NAVGEM, JMA on the other. GEFS are sorta split. I can tell you which group I'd rather have in my corner...lol. Lol, The A list for sure, Lot of junk on the B side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The GFS dryslots CT by 3z Thursday and the rest shortly after. Keeps comma head ALB-BTV after looking at it. Then maybe after break snow redevelops as mid levels head east. Definition of front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro ensemble track I think most would prefer I would prefer a benchmark track but that's for my area down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I hope the parallel gets a clue soon. If we are starting with that model on 12/9...it's not going to make mets happy if it has issues with cyclogenesis. Luckily 4 days out isn't critical for planning yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That is a scary thought come Jan right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro is definitely a nice 4-6" deal and then ice it seems inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That is a scary thought come Jan right nowNCEP is just trying to preserve met jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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