dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Although if you look closely it's pretty ominous with the 925 temps particularly just inland from Boston at the storms height. On my phone so pretty limited but quite extreme difference withs SV and weather bell maps there is ice and sleet involved which would cut into those weatherbell totals me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This will still have a high impact on the region as it stands right now for the holiday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks like EC ensemble still close to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks like EC ensemble still close to the BM. Nice to see I'm not the only one up. (Feeding my 1 month old and giving the wife a break) Peeking in from the NYC forum and just want to say I've been reading along with you guys for the first time on this storm. Really great stuff (both scientific and humorous)! Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS looks similar to the euro ensemble. A bit warmer aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If only we could lock in the Euro...good grief. GGEM still no storm at all, GFS in the middle. Let's just hope the EURO takes them all to the woodshed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 6z is West of the 0z run by a good bit. The cave continues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Can anyone explain what SV Snowmaps are vs weatherbell. I have access to weatherbell and the accumulation projections look too heavy in areas with sensitive thermal profiles. Is there another site to get a 2nd opinion for free? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This also is not your average storm. With this elongated more N-S, the precip area will not be thrown as far west as you might think. Something to watch as we go forward..the baroclinic zone is offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This also is not your average storm. With this elongated more N-S, the precip area will not be thrown as far west as you might think. Something to watch as we go forward..the baroclinic zone is offshore. That's been my sense as well--the orientation of the qpf field seems odd. I would think that will be a function in part as to how strong the low becomes. That said, I really like the 06 GFS. 33.6/29, a little ice on the deck this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS is more like a front end thump ern areas with the best deformation NW CT through Berks into NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GEFS are still really far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro is a mix right to GC. Torch aloft. Ice ORH to NW CT. Cold rain to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 06z GFS did shift west from 0z, Not as extreme as the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This also is not your average storm. With this elongated more N-S, the precip area will not be thrown as far west as you might think. Something to watch as we go forward..the baroclinic zone is offshore. Haha, thanks. Gotta take some enthusiasm out of that Euro run for me As usual its going to take a stronger system, with a closed mid-level to get snows back to western New England. This system is going to be stronger and west, or weak and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Haha, thanks. Gotta take some enthusiasm out of that Euro run for me Well the mid level stuff is still pretty far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That Euro run is a thing of beauty,but too amped as the Ens are not as amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That Euro run is a thing of beauty. Big gradient at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro is a mix right to GC. Torch aloft. Ice ORH to NW CT. Cold rain to the east. I'll take the EC over a 'wide-right' in a heartbeat. The 06z GFS is a tasty compromise between the 00z GFS and EC. Despite the earlier comments about the essence of west-leaning vs. east-leaning ENS notwithstanding, I see a field littered with Scooter flags. Hopefully, "upon further review (the 12z run), the ruling on the field will stand" and we can be confident that the 00z GFS/EC are the goal posts and any track adjustments are minor within that. Keep Scott Norwood on the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I can find no support for a Euro solutation though as hard as I look... the GFS is getting there, but the ensembles are all way SE, and then the second tier models like GGEM and NAM at 84 hours want nothing to do with this storm, even for SNE. Although ensembles east to me is expected in these situations as we all hashed out yesterday. That's not a flag or anything, its expected. There are always going to be ensembles that don't show the storm or miss it and tugs the mean weak and to the right. Its very rare for ensembles to be NW of an OP at this time frame in this type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It was ok...it flipped to rain for a good chunk but a pretty solid hit on the front end. Looked like a sleet/ice zone in the interior hills too. But again, these details mean very little right now. I think anyone would take 6 inches or so topped off with ice.. Still more likely it goes back east as they always do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'll take the EC over a 'wide-right' in a heartbeat. The 06z GFS is a tasty compromise between the 00z GFS and EC. Despite the earlier comments about the essence of west-leaning vs. east-leaning ENS notwithstanding, I see a field littered with Scooter flags. Hopefully, "upon further review (the 12z run), the ruling on the field will stand" and we can be confident that the 00z GFS/EC are the goal posts and any track adjustments are minor within that. Keep Scott Norwood on the sidelines. You'll end up doing well. If I hear you and the Pony Os complain about QPF or not getting jacked, I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks like EC ensemble still close to the BM. That is the more favorable track we would want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You'll end up doing well. If I hear you and the Pony Os complain about QPF or not getting jacked, I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You'll end up doing well. If I hear you and the Pony Os complain about QPF or not getting jacked, I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger. I'm still not comfortable to put anything beyond a chance of snow showers, with a secondary chance of partly sunny on Thursday, as I'm doing the early morning mountain weather. I really think the EURO has no weight here given how far east other stuff is. Its a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm still not comfortable to put anything beyond a chance of snow showers, with a secondary chance of partly sunny on Thursday, as I'm doing the early morning mountain weather. I really think the EURO has no weight here given how far east other stuff is. Its a tough call. Wow,lol,Big balls not even using the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm still not comfortable to put anything beyond a chance of snow showers, with a secondary chance of partly sunny on Thursday, as I'm doing the early morning mountain weather. I really think the EURO has no weight here given how far east other stuff is. Its a tough call. The 700 and 500 fields look good in VT. Maybe you are on the NW fringe, but on the 6z GFS, SNE tries dryslotting by 6z Thursday before the mid level stuff moves in near dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You'll end up doing well. If I hear you and the Pony Os complain about QPF or not getting jacked, I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger. Not per the 00z GFS, the GGEM, the UK (actually UK might be okay?) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-K8qi_AoXI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not per the 00z GFS, the GGEM, the UK (actually UK might be okay? <iframe width="640" height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/T-K8qi_AoXI?feature=player_detailpage" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Ukie more in the Euro camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The 700 and 500 fields look good in VT. Maybe you are on the NW fringe, but on the 6z GFS, SNE tries dryslotting by 6z Thursday before the mid level stuff moves in near dawn. What time do you think snow breaks out Wednesday? We talking during the day or not until after dark? GFS/Euro seem to also differ on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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