CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah...the track of the H7 low was pretty favorable up here for not playing a QPF queen at this juncture. I think we'd do better in that 18z GFS solution than a first glance at QPF would suggest. Yes. #QPFisnoteverything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think you mean you wish it would just work out and deliver snow... I mean, 12 hours ago, we were looking at needing some major west tickage Ha that is true. Amazing how fast it can change. But just think, 48 hours from now we could be back to no storm and still be like 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Put it this way, I don't see this as an elevation issue Ray. Perhaps in the very beginning it may matter, but that's not an issue IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Tip there is a little support for clipper redeveloper Miller B, seen it show up in that time period on various suites, something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 wow real early for that, don't fret yet Just bored between runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Put it this way, I don't see this as an elevation issue Ray. Perhaps in the very beginning it may matter, but that's not an issue IMO. I'm not worried about that....just pretty confident that the deformation zone will be west, so I was in search of some conciliatory measure. Just bored... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just bored between runs. Lol I know, its great being able to discuss winter again though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ha that is true. Amazing how fast it can change. But just think, 48 hours from now we could be back to no storm and still be like 3 days out. I think that's the lesser probability though.. This is probably already into ironing out track and thermal fields and that jazz, only to get honed obviously in future guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think you mean you wish it would just work out and deliver snow... I mean, 12 hours ago, we were looking at needing some major west tickage No, I mean what I said. Just thinking aloud during a respite from the task at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lol I know, its great being able to discuss winter again though. Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Tip there is a little support for clipper redeveloper Miller B, seen it show up in that time period on various suites, something to watch. Yeah I was just looking at the Euro ensembles and there is a small divot in the flow there with a weak anomaly ... Sometimes you can get these flat NJ waves coming out of Alberta/Pac, because they were sampled poorly and they are smaller. December 2005 was of that exact variety and ...well, we all know what lack of lead noticed meant for that pig. Not saying that's happening here, but... put it this way, man ...there is some seriously native volatility in the atmosphere with all this early arctic jazz and the subtropical fields still choking with summer embers. With so much gradient... you kind of battle between whether S/Ws will have enough to overcome, true, but a flat wave nuke variety is definitely something to look for as a sort of base line chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 No, I mean what I said. Just thinking aloud during a respite from the penis in task at hand. understood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm not worried about that....just pretty confident that the deformation zone will be west, so I was in search of some conciliatory measure. Just bored... Well the GFS is a massive front end thump and then H7 closes off overhead with fluff at the end for you. The band I mentioned is one of those, that sort of may be separate from the main precip band..and not the classic band that jacks someone. I only pointed it out to those far west who think they were out of it based on QPF. Not true if this is correct. I will say it's bothersome in more than one way, that the "new" GFS is so far OTS. Either it's going to score a win, or it's defecating on itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 understood... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Little Critters that bite...? The GFS' 18z has a Holiday season 1-2" coming through -- wonder where the Canogapian model is getting it's addition strength in the impulse from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well the GFS is a massive front end thump and then H7 closes off overhead with fluff at the end for you. The band I mentioned is one of those, that sort of may be separate from the main precip band..and not the classic band that jacks someone. I only pointed it out to those far west who think they were out of it based on QPF. Not true if this is correct. I will say it's bothersome in more than one way, that the "new" GFS is so far OTS. Either it's going to score a win, or it's defecating on itself. We can now avail of the greater resolution to see that the model blows. Seriously...greater resolution employing a still deficient data assimilation scheme. Yea, that engenders all kinds of confidence. It will magnify why it sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Have any of you guys seen the amazing jet dynamics we're going to have? Jet streaks easily 150 + knots for an incredible right entrance region. This is ironically where the fast flow in the Atlantic helps us -- it was a result of this ridiculous height gradient and helps to strengthen mid and upper level winds. I'm becoming more confident in a heavy-hitting/heavy-thumping precip event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well if you consider how far out we are and how things could change...all else being equal...you're in a good spot for now.You know him. Has to jack . All about the jack, no littles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The GFS snow alorithim was surprisingly meager over a good deal of CT. I wonder what was up with that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The GFS snow alorithim was surprisingly meager over a good deal of CT. I wonder what was up with that.... ? which clown map is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Seems like early in the season miller a's like this like to have the coastal fronts set up say from Natick to Framingham on down to Norfolk. As opposed to farther east later in the season. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Have any of you guys seen the amazing jet dynamics we're going to have? Jet streaks easily 150 + knots for an incredible right entrance region. This is ironically where the fast flow in the Atlantic helps us -- it was a result of this ridiculous height gradient and helps to strengthen mid and upper level winds. I'm becoming more confident in a heavy-hitting/heavy-thumping precip event. There was extensive discussion this afternoon, and you are spot on, very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You know him. Has to jack . All about the jack, no littles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 And Ray for the record, I'm not down...I'm just telling it how it is. I don't want you to think that I'm trying to Moneypitmike us all. I'm well aware there is a lot of time left. LOL--I'm speechless. The Euro ENS are a nice compromise solution that gives snow to most of the coastal plain as the low takes a track somewhere between the amped 12z ECM and the east 18z GFS solution. The GEFS being east means nothing. I only pay attention when they are further west than the OP...that's a red flag. Why only pay attention when they're further west? I don't understand why it's meaningful in one direction but not the other. 18z GFS will some deformation love GC into VT. That is something that did not escape me. We have plenty of time to move that further west though and Logan starts smiling. Where is Rick anyway? I think that tonight will be the first "most important model run of our lives" of the season. Even though there's still a ton of time to go, if we can see some consistency, it'll be a real shot in the arm of confidence in position, but I'm not holding my breath on p-type or (wait for it) qpf for a while. 33.2/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The GFS snow alorithim was surprisingly meager over a good deal of CT. I wonder what was up with that.... Just a reminder for the weather enthusiasts: don't rely on model snow accumulations, especially for early/late season storms! Surface or snow growth temperatures not taken into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just a reminder for the weather enthusiasts: don't rely on model snow accumulations, especially for early/late season storms! Surface or snow growth temperatures not taken into account. You mean like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We'll have to watch that the trough doesn't really tilt and propel the low due north, but at a rather significant distance off the coast...may leave spots west of ORH a little befuddled. We'll have to watch for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Being so early in the season, I agree with this. Fantastic tracking this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just a reminder for the weather enthusiasts: don't rely on model snow accumulations, especially for early/late season storms! Surface or snow growth temperatures not taken into account. I was merely stating what the map showed. Chill, gunsmoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 20141122_111.png Being so early in the season, I agree with this. Fantastic tracking this early Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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